A System for Automated Determination of Perioperative Patient Acuity

A System for Automated Determination of Perioperative Patient Acuity The widely used American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status (ASA PS) classification is subjective, requires manual clinician review to score, and has limited granularity. Our objective was to develop a system that automatically generates an ASA PS with finer granularity by creating a continuous ASA PS score. Supervised machine learning methods were used to create a model that predicts a patient’s ASA PS on a continuous scale using the patient’s home medications and comorbidities. Three different types of predictive models were trained: regression models, ordinal models, and classification models. The performance and agreement of each model to anesthesiologists were compared by calculating the mean squared error (MSE), rounded MSE and Cohen’s Kappa on a holdout set. To assess model performance on continuous ASA PS, model rankings were compared to two anesthesiologists on a subset of ASA PS 3 case pairs. The random forest regression model achieved the best MSE and rounded MSE. A model consisting of three random forest classifiers (split model) achieved the best Cohen’s Kappa. The model’s agreement with our anesthesiologists on the ASA PS 3 case pairs yielded fair to moderate Kappa values. The results suggest that the random forest split classification model can predict ASA PS with agreement similar to that of anesthesiologists reported in literature and produce a continuous score in which agreement in accurately judging granularity is fair to moderate. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Journal of Medical Systems Springer Journals

A System for Automated Determination of Perioperative Patient Acuity

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Publisher
Springer Journals
Copyright
Copyright © 2018 by Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature
Subject
Medicine & Public Health; Health Informatics; Health Informatics; Statistics for Life Sciences, Medicine, Health Sciences
ISSN
0148-5598
eISSN
1573-689X
D.O.I.
10.1007/s10916-018-0977-7
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

The widely used American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status (ASA PS) classification is subjective, requires manual clinician review to score, and has limited granularity. Our objective was to develop a system that automatically generates an ASA PS with finer granularity by creating a continuous ASA PS score. Supervised machine learning methods were used to create a model that predicts a patient’s ASA PS on a continuous scale using the patient’s home medications and comorbidities. Three different types of predictive models were trained: regression models, ordinal models, and classification models. The performance and agreement of each model to anesthesiologists were compared by calculating the mean squared error (MSE), rounded MSE and Cohen’s Kappa on a holdout set. To assess model performance on continuous ASA PS, model rankings were compared to two anesthesiologists on a subset of ASA PS 3 case pairs. The random forest regression model achieved the best MSE and rounded MSE. A model consisting of three random forest classifiers (split model) achieved the best Cohen’s Kappa. The model’s agreement with our anesthesiologists on the ASA PS 3 case pairs yielded fair to moderate Kappa values. The results suggest that the random forest split classification model can predict ASA PS with agreement similar to that of anesthesiologists reported in literature and produce a continuous score in which agreement in accurately judging granularity is fair to moderate.

Journal

Journal of Medical SystemsSpringer Journals

Published: May 30, 2018

References

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