Ann Oper Res https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-018-2906-z S.I. : CLAIO 2016 A real options approach for joint overhaul and replacement strategies with mean reverting prices 1 1 Alejandro Mac Cawley · Maximiliano Cubillos · Rodrigo Pascual © Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2018 Abstract Due to its signiﬁcant impact on economic performance, an effective equipment overhaul and replacement strategy is a key aspect of physical asset management in capital- intensive industries, such as the mining industry. Classical approaches suggest periodic interventions based on the physical condition of the equipment, considering factors such as availability and operational costs. These ﬁxed models generally ignore two important aspects: ﬁrst, the ﬂexibility of the decision to overhaul or replace, which may be re-evaluated within a given period, and second, the uncertainty around economic factors that may affect future maintenance decisions, such as the product price. This work improves on classical models by considering the effect of integrated price uncertainty in the deﬁnition of joint overhaul and replacement strategy, using a real options approach and a mean reversion bino- mial model to represent the uncertainty in price. More speciﬁcally, we develop a real options model and use a backwards recursion algorithm to determine an
Annals of Operations Research – Springer Journals
Published: Jun 5, 2018
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