# A novel probabilistic simulation approach for forecasting the safety factor of slopes: a case study

A novel probabilistic simulation approach for forecasting the safety factor of slopes: a case study Stabilization of slopes is considered as the aim of the several geotechnical applications such as embankment, tunnel, highway, building and railway and dam. Therefore, evaluation and precise prediction of the factor of safety (FoS) of slopes can be useful in designing these important structures. This research is carried out to evaluate the ability of Monte Carlo (MC) technique for the forecasting the FoS of many homogenous slopes in the static condition. Moreover, the sensitivity of the FoS on the effective parameters was identified. To do this, the most important factors on FoS, such as angle of internal friction $$(\emptyset )$$ ( ∅ ) , slope angle $$(\alpha )$$ ( α ) and cohesion $$(C)$$ ( C ) were investigated and used as the inputs to forecast the FoS. Then, a regression analysis was performed, and the results were used for the FoS prediction using MC. The obtained results of MC simulation were very close with the actual FoS values. The mean of the simulated FoS by MC was achieved as 1.32, while, according to actual FoSs, it was 1.27. These results showed that MC is an acceptable technique to estimate the FoS of slopes with high level of accuracy. Moreover, based on the results of correlation and regression sensitivity analyses, it was concluded that angle of internal friction, was the most influential one on the results of FoS in both types of sensitivity analyses. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Engineering with Computers Springer Journals

# A novel probabilistic simulation approach for forecasting the safety factor of slopes: a case study

Engineering with Computers, Volume 35 (2) – Jun 1, 2018
10 pages

/lp/springer_journal/a-novel-probabilistic-simulation-approach-for-forecasting-the-safety-LvaTp8kT4p
Publisher
Springer Journals
Subject
Computer Science; Computer-Aided Engineering (CAD, CAE) and Design; Math. Applications in Chemistry; Systems Theory, Control; Calculus of Variations and Optimal Control; Optimization; Classical Mechanics; Mathematical and Computational Engineering
ISSN
0177-0667
eISSN
1435-5663
D.O.I.
10.1007/s00366-018-0623-5
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

### Abstract

Stabilization of slopes is considered as the aim of the several geotechnical applications such as embankment, tunnel, highway, building and railway and dam. Therefore, evaluation and precise prediction of the factor of safety (FoS) of slopes can be useful in designing these important structures. This research is carried out to evaluate the ability of Monte Carlo (MC) technique for the forecasting the FoS of many homogenous slopes in the static condition. Moreover, the sensitivity of the FoS on the effective parameters was identified. To do this, the most important factors on FoS, such as angle of internal friction $$(\emptyset )$$ ( ∅ ) , slope angle $$(\alpha )$$ ( α ) and cohesion $$(C)$$ ( C ) were investigated and used as the inputs to forecast the FoS. Then, a regression analysis was performed, and the results were used for the FoS prediction using MC. The obtained results of MC simulation were very close with the actual FoS values. The mean of the simulated FoS by MC was achieved as 1.32, while, according to actual FoSs, it was 1.27. These results showed that MC is an acceptable technique to estimate the FoS of slopes with high level of accuracy. Moreover, based on the results of correlation and regression sensitivity analyses, it was concluded that angle of internal friction, was the most influential one on the results of FoS in both types of sensitivity analyses.

### Journal

Published: Jun 1, 2018

## You’re reading a free preview. Subscribe to read the entire article.

### DeepDyve is your personal research library

It’s your single place to instantly
that matters to you.

over 18 million articles from more than
15,000 peer-reviewed journals.

All for just $49/month ### Explore the DeepDyve Library ### Search Query the DeepDyve database, plus search all of PubMed and Google Scholar seamlessly ### Organize Save any article or search result from DeepDyve, PubMed, and Google Scholar... all in one place. ### Access Get unlimited, online access to over 18 million full-text articles from more than 15,000 scientific journals. ### Your journals are on DeepDyve Read from thousands of the leading scholarly journals from SpringerNature, Elsevier, Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford University Press and more. All the latest content is available, no embargo periods. DeepDyve ### Freelancer DeepDyve ### Pro Price FREE$49/month
\$360/year

Save searches from
PubMed

Create folders to

Export folders, citations