A FORECAST FOR THE REFRACTORY MARKET.
PROSPECTS FOR 2002
O. V. Bogdan
Translated from Ogneupory i Tekhnicheskaya Keramika, No. 6, pp. 17 – 20, June, 2002.
SCENARIOS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF METALLURGY TILL 2010
The growth trend in domestic ferrous metallurgy seems
to have stabilized. In 2001, the increase in output of cast iron
was 0.81% against 2000; for comparison, it was 11.21% in
2000 against 1999. Decline in the output of steel in 2001 was
0.4% against 2000, although against 1999, the production
was increased by 14.6%. Products that were earlier intended
for export were mainly realized in the internal market owing
to the production growth in the machine-building industry
and the construction industry and to the enhanced govern-
mental funding in the defense industry. Governmental mea-
sures have been taken to improve the situation in the metal-
lurgical industry. For example, duties on export of ferrous
metallurgy products were abolished, and a federal program
for development of the metallurgical industry till 2010 is un-
der consideration. Thus, the consumption of refractories by
domestic ferrous metallurgy, allowing for the domestic-to-
foreign refractory proportion of the last year, will mainly be
determined by productivity fluctuations in the ferrous indus
try. As was noted in February 2002 by Viktor Chernobrovin,
public director of the Chelyabinsk Electrical Steel and Iron
Works, the year 2002 will probably see further decline in the
production of ferroalloys, electrodes, and refractories.
Allowing for the restrictions on exports, the prospects for
domestic metallurgy till 2010 are primarily linked to the de
mand of metallurgical products in the internal market.
An analysis of the world market provides grounds to be
lieve that a significant part of the production output of do
mestic metallurgy within the period to 2010 will go to ex
port. However, the volume of exported rolled products will
be on the decline. The export of rolled products is predicted
to be 50% in 2005 and 40% in 2010, and of nonferrous me
tals — 75 and 65%, respectively (Fig. 1).
To support domestic manufacturers, it is necessary to
continue negotiations on the removal of discriminatory con
ditions for access of metallurgical products from Russia to
external markets [primarily, markets of the U.S.A., European
Community (EC), and China]. However, in the long term, in
order to maintain high exports and to secure a deeper integra
tion into the world economy, it is essential to raise the com
petitive capacity of domestic products.
Development and modernization in the metallurgical in
dustry are determined to a significant degree by the availabil
ity of proper financial sources and borrowed funds, which, in
turn, is determined by legal aspects of investment, tariff, in
novation, and budgetary policies, foreign economic activity,
taxation, pricing practice and other factors.
At present, a large number of metallurgical enterprises
are dangerously close to the profitability threshold. Unless
appropriate measures are taken, the situation may change for
the worse. By 2005, stagnation may occur in the nonferrous
metallurgy and there may be a 15 – 20% production decline
in the ferrous metallurgy.
Effective measures aimed at the removal of restrictions
and the stimulation of development in metallurgy should be
taken to ensure a 20 – 30% increase in output depending on
the conditions of development of the domestic and world
Allowing for the expected demand and various scenarios
of development, the output of ferrous rolled products by
2010 should increase by 18 – 20% (54 – 56 million tons)
against 2001, aluminum and nickel — by 7 – 9%, and copper
— 10 – 14%.
FORECAST FOR THE REFRACTORY MARKET
According to data of the Goskomstat (State Committee
of the Russian Federation for Statistics), the output of
Refractories and Industrial Ceramics Vol. 43, Nos.5–6, 2002
1083-4877/02/0506-0218$27.00 © 2002 Plenum Publishing Corporation
Ogneupor-Komplekt Joint-Stock Co., Russia.
2001 2005 2010
Fig. 1. Predicted export of ferrous metals.