A Conceptual Model of the Relationship Among World Economy and Climate Indicators

A Conceptual Model of the Relationship Among World Economy and Climate Indicators The work is aimed at developing a conceptual model of the relationship among global indicators such as world population, GDP, primary energy consumption, anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions, and mean surface temperature anomaly. The world economy is viewed from three perspectives as (1) a manufacturing system that consumes energy and returns a product; (2) a climate-active system that shifts the planetary thermal equilibrium due to greenhouse gas emissions; and (3) a resource-distributed system in which the generalized resource is distributed among consumers of different scale and can be equivalently expressed in both monetary and energy units. It was established that dependencies between the indicators are power law: temperature anomaly increases proportionally to cumulative energy consumption, GDP grows in proportion to the product of current and cumulative energy consumption raised to a power of less than unity, and energy consumption in turn is a power-law function of population with the exponent being expressed through the Gini coefficient, which is a measure of the inequality in income distribution on a global scale. Parameters of these dependencies were determined using a special procedure of fitting to empirical data. It was found that energy consumption, temperature anomaly, and GDP grow over the industrial period in proportion to population raised to a power close to 1.5, 1.8, and 2, respectively. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png BioPhysical Economics and Resource Quality Springer Journals

A Conceptual Model of the Relationship Among World Economy and Climate Indicators

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Publisher
Springer International Publishing
Copyright
Copyright © 2018 by Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature
Subject
Energy; Energy Policy, Economics and Management; Natural Resource and Energy Economics ; Data-driven Science, Modeling and Theory Building; Natural Resources
ISSN
2366-0112
eISSN
2366-0120
D.O.I.
10.1007/s41247-018-0037-4
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

The work is aimed at developing a conceptual model of the relationship among global indicators such as world population, GDP, primary energy consumption, anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions, and mean surface temperature anomaly. The world economy is viewed from three perspectives as (1) a manufacturing system that consumes energy and returns a product; (2) a climate-active system that shifts the planetary thermal equilibrium due to greenhouse gas emissions; and (3) a resource-distributed system in which the generalized resource is distributed among consumers of different scale and can be equivalently expressed in both monetary and energy units. It was established that dependencies between the indicators are power law: temperature anomaly increases proportionally to cumulative energy consumption, GDP grows in proportion to the product of current and cumulative energy consumption raised to a power of less than unity, and energy consumption in turn is a power-law function of population with the exponent being expressed through the Gini coefficient, which is a measure of the inequality in income distribution on a global scale. Parameters of these dependencies were determined using a special procedure of fitting to empirical data. It was found that energy consumption, temperature anomaly, and GDP grow over the industrial period in proportion to population raised to a power close to 1.5, 1.8, and 2, respectively.

Journal

BioPhysical Economics and Resource QualitySpringer Journals

Published: Mar 13, 2018

References

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