A Comparative Evaluation of Error and Bias in Census Tract-Level Age/Sex-Specific Population Estimates: Component I (Net-Migration) vs Component III (Hamilton–Perry)

A Comparative Evaluation of Error and Bias in Census Tract-Level Age/Sex-Specific Population... While the housing-unit method continues to be the preferred method nationwide for producing small-area population estimates, this procedures lacks a method for making age/sex-specific estimates. This paper reports evaluation research on implementation of component-based methods for estimating census tract populations with age/sex detail. Two alternatives are explored: (1) the Component I method relying upon estimates of births, deaths, and net-migration and (2) the Component III method relying solely upon 1990 and 2000 Census counts. From an April 1, 2000 base, each method is used to make estimates moving forward to an April 1, 2010 estimate that is compared to the results of the 2010 Census. The two methods are compared in terms of accuracy and bias using both absolute and algebraic mean and median percentage errors. Results are reviewed and discussed in light of their implications for applied demographers tasked with making small-area demographic estimates. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Population Research and Policy Review Springer Journals

A Comparative Evaluation of Error and Bias in Census Tract-Level Age/Sex-Specific Population Estimates: Component I (Net-Migration) vs Component III (Hamilton–Perry)

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Publisher
Springer Netherlands
Copyright
Copyright © 2013 by Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht
Subject
Social Sciences, general; Demography; Sociology, general; Population Economics
ISSN
0167-5923
eISSN
1573-7829
D.O.I.
10.1007/s11113-013-9295-4
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

While the housing-unit method continues to be the preferred method nationwide for producing small-area population estimates, this procedures lacks a method for making age/sex-specific estimates. This paper reports evaluation research on implementation of component-based methods for estimating census tract populations with age/sex detail. Two alternatives are explored: (1) the Component I method relying upon estimates of births, deaths, and net-migration and (2) the Component III method relying solely upon 1990 and 2000 Census counts. From an April 1, 2000 base, each method is used to make estimates moving forward to an April 1, 2010 estimate that is compared to the results of the 2010 Census. The two methods are compared in terms of accuracy and bias using both absolute and algebraic mean and median percentage errors. Results are reviewed and discussed in light of their implications for applied demographers tasked with making small-area demographic estimates.

Journal

Population Research and Policy ReviewSpringer Journals

Published: Aug 3, 2013

References

  • The impact of incomplete geocoding on small area population estimates
    Baker, J; Alcantara, A; Ruan, XM; Watkins, K
  • Density-dependence in urban housing unit growth: An evaluation of the Pearl–Reed model for predicting housing unit stock at the census tract level
    Baker, J; Ruan, XM; Alcantara, A; Jones, T; Watkins, K

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