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L. Reichlin, Mario Forni, M. Hallin, Marco Lippi (2001)
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Note: Shown is the estimated business cycle index for the data vintage of 6th March 2012 based on real-time data (blue) and based on replicated real-time data
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For policy institutions such as central banks, it is important to have a timely and accurate measure of past and current economic activity and the business cycle situation. The most prominent example for such a measure is gross domestic product (GDP). However, GDP is only released at a quarterly frequency and with a substantial delay. Furthermore, it captures elements that are not directly linked to the business cycle and the underlying momentum of the economy. In this paper, I construct a new business cycle index for the Swiss economy, which uses state-of-the-art methods, is available at a monthly frequency and can be calculated in real-time, even when some indicators are not yet available for the most recent periods. The index is based on a large and broad set of monthly and quarterly indicators. As I show, for the case of Switzerland, it is important to base a business cycle index on a broad set of indicators instead of only a small subset. This result confirms the findings of a previous study on tracking short-term economic developments in Switzerland and is in contrast with the results for other countries.
Journal of Business Cycle Research – Springer Journals
Published: Jul 24, 2018
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