Validation of the breast cancer surveillance consortium model of breast cancer risk

Validation of the breast cancer surveillance consortium model of breast cancer risk Purpose In order to use a breast cancer prediction model in clinical practice to guide screening and prevention, it must be well calibrated and validated in samples independent from the one used for development. We assessed the accuracy of the breast cancer surveillance consortium (BCSC) model in a racially diverse population followed for up to 10 years. Methods The BCSC model combines breast density with other risk factors to estimate a woman’s 5- and 10-year risk of invasive breast cancer. We validated the model in an independent cohort of 252,997 women in the Chicago area. We evalu- ated calibration using the ratio of expected to observed (E/O) invasive breast cancers in the cohort and discrimination using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Results In an independent cohort of 252,997 women (median age 50 years, 26% non-Hispanic Black), the BCSC model was well calibrated (E/O = 0.94, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.90–0.98), but underestimated the incidence of invasive breast cancer in younger women and in women with low mammographic density. The AUROC was 0.633, similar to that observed in prior validation studies. Conclusions The BCSC model is a well-validated risk assessment tool for breast cancer that may be http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Breast Cancer Research and Treatment Springer Journals

Validation of the breast cancer surveillance consortium model of breast cancer risk

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Publisher
Springer Journals
Copyright
Copyright © 2019 by Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature
Subject
Medicine & Public Health; Oncology
ISSN
0167-6806
eISSN
1573-7217
D.O.I.
10.1007/s10549-019-05167-2
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Purpose In order to use a breast cancer prediction model in clinical practice to guide screening and prevention, it must be well calibrated and validated in samples independent from the one used for development. We assessed the accuracy of the breast cancer surveillance consortium (BCSC) model in a racially diverse population followed for up to 10 years. Methods The BCSC model combines breast density with other risk factors to estimate a woman’s 5- and 10-year risk of invasive breast cancer. We validated the model in an independent cohort of 252,997 women in the Chicago area. We evalu- ated calibration using the ratio of expected to observed (E/O) invasive breast cancers in the cohort and discrimination using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Results In an independent cohort of 252,997 women (median age 50 years, 26% non-Hispanic Black), the BCSC model was well calibrated (E/O = 0.94, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.90–0.98), but underestimated the incidence of invasive breast cancer in younger women and in women with low mammographic density. The AUROC was 0.633, similar to that observed in prior validation studies. Conclusions The BCSC model is a well-validated risk assessment tool for breast cancer that may be

Journal

Breast Cancer Research and TreatmentSpringer Journals

Published: Feb 22, 2019

References

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