Predicting suitability of forest dynamics to future climatic conditions: the likely dominance of Holm oak [Quercus ilex subsp. ballota (Desf.) Samp.] and Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis Mill.)

Predicting suitability of forest dynamics to future climatic conditions: the likely dominance of... & Key message Composite logistic regression models simulating the potential effect of global climate change on forests dynamics in the southern Iberian Peninsula identify Holm oak [Quercus ilex subsp. ballota (Desf.) Samp.] and Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis Mill.) as the chief beneficiaries of the anticipated environmental shifts, whereas other oak species and conifers suffer a decline. & Context The ten most important tree species (five oaks and five conifers) in Southern Spain were selected for the study. The study area, corresponding to the region of Andalusia, is located in an interesting position between Central European and North African climates. The territory also exhibits the most extreme patterns of rainfall in the Iberian Peninsula. & Aims This study aims to model the potential distribution of the ten species in response to climate change, in several time periods, including the present and two future twenty-first century dates. & Methods The potential distributions within the different scenarios were simulated using logistic regression techniques based on a set of 19 climate variables from the WorldClim 1.4 project. The scenarios were drawn from the RCP 2.6 and 6.0 in the CCSM4 Global Circulation Model. The resolution of the output maps was 30 arc-seconds. & http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Annals of Forest Science Springer Journals

Predicting suitability of forest dynamics to future climatic conditions: the likely dominance of Holm oak [Quercus ilex subsp. ballota (Desf.) Samp.] and Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis Mill.)

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Publisher
Springer Journals
Copyright
Copyright © 2018 by INRA and Springer-Verlag France SAS, part of Springer Nature
Subject
Life Sciences; Forestry; Wood Science & Technology; Forestry Management; Tree Biology; Environment, general
ISSN
1286-4560
eISSN
1297-966X
D.O.I.
10.1007/s13595-018-0702-1
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

& Key message Composite logistic regression models simulating the potential effect of global climate change on forests dynamics in the southern Iberian Peninsula identify Holm oak [Quercus ilex subsp. ballota (Desf.) Samp.] and Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis Mill.) as the chief beneficiaries of the anticipated environmental shifts, whereas other oak species and conifers suffer a decline. & Context The ten most important tree species (five oaks and five conifers) in Southern Spain were selected for the study. The study area, corresponding to the region of Andalusia, is located in an interesting position between Central European and North African climates. The territory also exhibits the most extreme patterns of rainfall in the Iberian Peninsula. & Aims This study aims to model the potential distribution of the ten species in response to climate change, in several time periods, including the present and two future twenty-first century dates. & Methods The potential distributions within the different scenarios were simulated using logistic regression techniques based on a set of 19 climate variables from the WorldClim 1.4 project. The scenarios were drawn from the RCP 2.6 and 6.0 in the CCSM4 Global Circulation Model. The resolution of the output maps was 30 arc-seconds. &

Journal

Annals of Forest ScienceSpringer Journals

Published: Feb 21, 2018

References

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