Managing Uncertainty in Climate Change Projections – Issues for Impact Assessment

Managing Uncertainty in Climate Change Projections – Issues for Impact Assessment 404 EDITORIAL COMMENT DIALOGUE model, introduced by Visser et al. (2000) does this. DIALOGUE is an integrated assessment model that estimates global temperature from linked greenhouse gas emission scenarios, and gas cycle, radiative forcing and simple cli- mate models. Each of the components has been assessed separately to determine its individual contribution to the total range of uncertainty contained within projected global temperature. Uncertainty contained in projections of global change combines with uncer- tainties in projections of regional change, with both propagating through to impact assessments (e.g., Figure 10-1, Arnell et al., 1996). Tools such as DIALOGUE may be suitably adapted to manage uncertainty in regional climate change projections by calculating conditional probabilities. The broad context of such a role is dis- cussed in this paper, and examples for managing uncertainty in regional climate change projections are presented with recommendations for future research. 2. The Portrayal of Uncertainty within the IPCC Second Assessment Report Although the IPCC SAR on impacts, adaptation and mitigation (Watson et al., 1996) explicitly linked dangerous climate change with mitigation and adaptation assessment in its Technical Summary (IPCC, 1996b), the body of the report was mostly restricted to describing sensitivity and vulnerability assessments. Most of http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Climatic Change Springer Journals

Managing Uncertainty in Climate Change Projections – Issues for Impact Assessment

Climatic Change, Volume 45 (4) – Oct 8, 2004

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Publisher
Springer Journals
Copyright
Copyright © 2000 by Kluwer Academic Publishers
Subject
Earth Sciences; Atmospheric Sciences; Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts
ISSN
0165-0009
eISSN
1573-1480
DOI
10.1023/A:1005551626280
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

404 EDITORIAL COMMENT DIALOGUE model, introduced by Visser et al. (2000) does this. DIALOGUE is an integrated assessment model that estimates global temperature from linked greenhouse gas emission scenarios, and gas cycle, radiative forcing and simple cli- mate models. Each of the components has been assessed separately to determine its individual contribution to the total range of uncertainty contained within projected global temperature. Uncertainty contained in projections of global change combines with uncer- tainties in projections of regional change, with both propagating through to impact assessments (e.g., Figure 10-1, Arnell et al., 1996). Tools such as DIALOGUE may be suitably adapted to manage uncertainty in regional climate change projections by calculating conditional probabilities. The broad context of such a role is dis- cussed in this paper, and examples for managing uncertainty in regional climate change projections are presented with recommendations for future research. 2. The Portrayal of Uncertainty within the IPCC Second Assessment Report Although the IPCC SAR on impacts, adaptation and mitigation (Watson et al., 1996) explicitly linked dangerous climate change with mitigation and adaptation assessment in its Technical Summary (IPCC, 1996b), the body of the report was mostly restricted to describing sensitivity and vulnerability assessments. Most of

Journal

Climatic ChangeSpringer Journals

Published: Oct 8, 2004

References

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