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Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian ViewSelected Approaches to Discontinuities in Trends

Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View: Selected Approaches to... [This chapter presents some basic possibilities of acknowledging unpredictable events and structural changes, which are important factors causing discontinuities in observed migration trends. Also here, the relevant models are proposed within the Bayesian framework. In particular, two classes of models are considered: simple historical analogies and extensions of autoregressive models to cases with non-constant conditional variance. After a theoretical introduction of both types of models in Section 7.1, empirical applications to the forecasts of migration flows under study are offered in Section 7.2.] http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png

Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian ViewSelected Approaches to Discontinuities in Trends

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References (16)

Publisher
Springer Netherlands
Copyright
© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011
ISBN
978-90-481-8896-3
Pages
137 –152
DOI
10.1007/978-90-481-8897-0_7
Publisher site
See Chapter on Publisher Site

Abstract

[This chapter presents some basic possibilities of acknowledging unpredictable events and structural changes, which are important factors causing discontinuities in observed migration trends. Also here, the relevant models are proposed within the Bayesian framework. In particular, two classes of models are considered: simple historical analogies and extensions of autoregressive models to cases with non-constant conditional variance. After a theoretical introduction of both types of models in Section 7.1, empirical applications to the forecasts of migration flows under study are offered in Section 7.2.]

Published: Sep 20, 2010

Keywords: Conditional Variance; Stochastic Variance; Stochastic Volatility; Emigration Rate; Current Section

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