Get 20M+ Full-Text Papers For Less Than $1.50/day. Start a 14-Day Trial for You or Your Team.

Learn More →

Development of regional foresight studies between 2000 and 2019: an overview and co-citation analysis

Development of regional foresight studies between 2000 and 2019: an overview and co-citation... Regional foresight is one of the regional planning approaches that increase the ability to deal with uncertainty and changes. This study aims to provide an overview of regional foresight studies and domain map to evaluate their merits and defects and direct future studies in this field. For this purpose, 111 papers related to regional foresight were identified at the “Web of Science” in the period 2000 to 2019 and used as the basis for further analysis. These papers have been reviewed in various aspects. In addition, the domain map of regional foresight and its intellectual bases was drawn based on co-citation analysis of these papers and their 4194 references. The domain map includes five main clusters of research areas or intellectual bases for regional foresight: normative forecasting, participation, foresight in policy and strategy, innovation systems, and multi-level governance. Finally, the merits and defects of regional foresight studies are evaluated based on research results and some suggestions are provided for future studies. Keywords: Regional foresight, Regional planning, Domain map, Co-citation analysis, Foresight Introduction foresight is, in fact, the result of the introduction of fore- To account the increasing complexity and speed of sight and its capabilities in territorial issues. changes in the current century in terms of urban and re- Various studies have been conducted on regional fore- gional policy-making, it is necessary to come up with the sight. These studies deal with how to implement or approaches that provide the grounds for anticipating present the achievements of regional foresight in their and becoming ready to face changes. Great changes in cases. After about 20 years from the advent of the con- political, social, cultural, and economic issues and their cept of regional foresight in scientific papers, it may be interactions, as well as inherent uncertainty involved in the time to evaluate the course. In this regard, it is ne- some of these factors, have made it difficult to anticipate cessary to conduct an evaluation that has a comprehen- the future of such changes. Although environment sive look at past research, highlights the strengths and changes have profound effects in some regions, they still achievements of studies of these years, and underlines lack strong well-developed policy institutions that can shortcomings in future studies while demonstrating the cope with such changes [1]. These challenges have led to orientations and roots of regional foresight studies. future-oriented approaches, most commonly known as The remainder of this study is organized as follows: “regional foresight,” to enter territorial issues. Regional The “Conceptual background” section is allocated to de- fine the conceptual backgrounds. The “Methodology” section addresses the methodology of the study, espe- cially the co-citation analysis method used in the re- * Correspondence: Jabal@ie.iust.ac.ir search. The “Overview of papers” section represents an School of Industrial Engineering, Iran University of Science & Technology, overview of key information from selected papers, briefs Tehran 1684613114, Iran Full list of author information is available at the end of the article © The Author(s). 2021 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. Amini et al. European Journal of Futures Research (2021) 9:1 Page 2 of 15 Fig. 1 Typology of five evolving futures approaches [3] about publications, active authors, countries, keywords, FOREN has described “Foresight is a systematic, journals, and most popular methods and issues. The participatory process that involves gathering “Results of co-citation analysis” section presents the re- intelligence, building visions for a medium/long-term sult of co-citation analysis. In this section, also, domain future, informing present-day decisions, mobilizing map of regional foresight and the description of clusters joint actions” (p. 311) [4]. As outlined in the defin- or intellectual bases are provided. Eventually, the “Con- ition, it can be used at various levels and topics. For clusions” section provides the concluding remarks, based example, the subject of foresight can be individuals, on the results of the analysis, the strengths and weak- organizations, societies, regions, countries, conti- nesses of regional foresight studies, and recommenda- nents, planets, and even issues such as technology, tions for further studies. environmental challenges, and humanity. Regional planning issues are to be well suited to the participative and vision-building foresight approaches. Conceptual background Stronger links between regional-based actors, the imme- Foresight is one of the various names used for refer- diacy, and sensitivity of people to variations in their re- ring to the field of studying future. Most commonly gion, and a heightened level of awareness and used names in this field are futures studies, and fore- commitment to the community should all make such sight. The concepts of futures studies (also called fu- approaches valuable in regional settings [4]. The name tures research) and foresight are close to each other. that has been used for foresight in territorial level over Both of these concepts use the same theories and the past 20 years is “regional foresight.” methodology. The main difference is that foresight is Regional foresight means applying foresight methods doing, using, and interacting, while futures studies are for anticipation, participation, networking, vision, and more science-dependent [2]. As shown in Fig. 1,the action at smaller territorial scales where proximity fac- Futures approaches have shifted over time from posi- tors become more critical. This process has five main tivist to pluralist approaches [3]. components [5]: Fig. 2 The conceptual model of CiteSpace II [6] Amini et al. European Journal of Futures Research (2021) 9:1 Page 3 of 15 Fig. 3 Number of regional foresight papers published between 2000 and 2019 (1) Organized anticipation and projection of long-term limitations. After reviewing 200 cases and removing social, economic, and technological developments items that appeared merely because of verbal similarity and needs in the results, 111 valid papers were selected for the sub- (2) Interactive and participative methods of exploratory sequent analysis. debate, analysis, and study that involve a wide The basic attributes of the articles were identified variety of stakeholders through the study of selected articles and thematic ana- (3) Interactive approaches that involve new social lysis in various dimensions. Results are presented as an networks overview of regional foresight studies in the “Overview (4) A guiding strategic vision to which a sense of of papers” section. commitment can be shared Then, an attempt was made to implement co-citation (5) The shared vision is not to be a utopia; there has to analysis in the field of regional foresight with CiteSpace be explicit recognition and explication of the Software. The general approach for detecting and visual- implications for the present-day decisions and izing the emerging trends and transient patterns in sci- actions. entific literature is the basis for the design of this software. “Region” is an important term in the definition of re- In the field of “Information Science,” a specialty is gional foresight. Region means territories that have the conceptualized and visualized as a time-variant duality following two features: geographical proximity and lim- between two fundamental concepts. These concepts are ited spatial range. Rural communities, town/city/histor- “research fronts” and “intellectual bases.” The former is ical regions, regions with specific economic activity/ defined as an emergent and transient grouping of con- cultural identity, and political regions (autonomies, cepts and underlying research issues and the latter—the counties, and provinces), as well, can be covered by the intellectual bases of a research front—is its citation and term region. co-citation footprints in the scientific literature, which is an evolving network of scientific publications cited by research-front concepts (Fig. 2)[6]. Methodology The co-citation analysis performed using CiteSpace In order to achieve the goals of evaluating past research software can greatly enhance the speed and precision and leading future research in the field of regional fore- of the literature review. Moreover, information from sight, four preliminary steps are considered for this re- the intellectual bases of the subject under review by search: (1) sampling and reviewing the related studies, the references of all articles is presented in an illus- (2) thematic analysis of basic attributes of studies to dis- trative way, another achievement that will work with cover an overview of them, (3) co-citation analysis for this method. discovering the domain map of regional foresight and its However, despitethese benefits,there aresomeis- intellectual bases, and (4) assessing the past studies and sues that make it hard to work with this method- giving recommendations for future research. ology. Co-citation analysis is largely the function of Due to the emergence of foresight and regional fore- the initial articles as an input, and sometimes with sight studies, the sampling of studies was performed the choiceof somewrong articles in the input sec- using the director of Web of Science without any time tion, the results are subject to many changes and Foresight for regional development network deviations. Amini et al. European Journal of Futures Research (2021) 9:1 Page 4 of 15 Fig. 4 Number of citations to regional foresight papers between 2000 and 2019 Overview of papers Since the objective of this paper is to present a compre- hensive literature review on “Regional foresight,” which is an emerging knowledge, no time limits have been con- sidered in collecting the relevant papers. While search- Table 1 Regional foresight authors active between 2000 and ing in the “Web of Science,” 111 related papers were found from 2000 to 2019. Software studies showed that Author No-papers Ropuszynska-Surma E 5 the selected papers had 4194 references, which were Kononiuk A 4 used for analyzing and studying the status of “Regional Uotila T 4 foresight.” Weglarz M 4 Eames M 3 Konnola T 3 Number of papers published and cited on regional Rinaudo JD 3 foresight Stormer E 3 Next, the status of regional foresight is studied and Truffer B 3 analyzed considering different criteria. The number Wylomanska A 3 of regional foresight papers published between 2000 Ahlqvist T 2 and 2019 is shown in Fig. 3 and the annual number Capello R 2 of citations to regional foresight papers is presented Roveda C 2 Vecchiato R 2 in Fig. 4. Statistics of this part are indicative of re- Caragliu A 2 gional foresight studies with a growing trend during Dixon T 2 2000–2019. Ejdys J 2 The growing number of citations to regional foresight Graveline N 2 articles also indicates that this area is transforming from Harmaakorpi V 2 an emerging knowledge front into a referenced domain. Hunt M 2 Kaivo-Oja J 2 Leclerc G 2 Regional foresight authors Maurer M 2 In this section, well-known regional foresight authors Melkas H 2 are introduced. Authors’ names and the number of their Miles I 2 papers are shown in Table 1. Also, Fig. 5 shows authors’ Stratigea A 2 Sacio-Szymanska A 2 names and collaborations they have had with other au- Rudskaia I 2 thors. In this figure, thicker connecting lines mean more Hunt M 2 cooperation among the authors and bigger fonts means Saritas O 2 the author has more papers in this field. Amini et al. European Journal of Futures Research (2021) 9:1 Page 5 of 15 Fig. 5 Active authors and their collaborations between 2000 and 2019 Active countries in regional foresight research In this section, countries with the highest number of Table 2 Number of regional foresight papers of different regional foresight researches are introduced in the countries published during 2000–2019 order of their contributions. The country name and No. Country its number of papers published during 2000–2019 15 Finland are presented in Table 2. As can be seen, Finland, 12 Poland England, Poland, France, Russia, Italy, Spain, 12 England Switzerland, and the USA are the leading countries 10 Russia in this regard, in the order of their appurtenance. 9 France 9 Italy Figure 6 presents the share of countries in published 7 Spain papers. 7 Switzerland The results suggest that most regional foresight studies 6 USA are conducted in Europe, probably due to the limited 5 Germany size of most countries in this continent and the need for 5 Australia joint planning of neighboring territories for develop- 4 Austria ment. Furthermore, countries with large terrestrial 4 Wales zones, such as the USA and Russia, have been pursuing 3 Denmark regional foresight because of their territorial diversity 3 Norway within their country. 3 Canada 2 Sweden 2 Belgium 2 Brazil Active universities and institutes in regional foresight 2 Greece Universities and institutes active in regional foresight are 2 Hungary presented in Table 3. The results of this section also 2 Netherlands demonstrate the dominance of European institutions 2 Thailand and universities in regional foresight studies. Amini et al. European Journal of Futures Research (2021) 9:1 Page 6 of 15 Fig. 6 Share of countries in regional foresight papers during 2000–2019 Keywords Keywords present the proximity of futures studies con- Keywords/phrases are important tools in every research cepts policy-making and sustainable development in re- area that help researchers to have access to papers, gional foresight studies. books, and research works related to their field of ex- pertise. Figure 7 shows the most frequent keywords in Active journals in regional foresight this area. Words such as foresight, management, policy, Relevant journals, as well, are an important issue for re- future, and scenario are the main items in Table 4. searchers by showing which journal has published most of the related papers. Table 5 presents the number of papers published in each journal. As can be seen, Fu- tures, Technological Forecast and Social Changes, and European Journal of Futures Research have the highest Table 3 Number of universities and institutes papers in regional frequency in the table. foresight This list is a good reference for finding similar studies No. Universities and institutes and subsequent publications by researchers in the field 6 Bialystok University of Technology of regional foresight. 5 Lappeenranta University of Technology The categories of regional foresight 5 University of Manchester Another issue studied in the selected papers is the cat- 4 Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique Inra egory of their case studies. The results are shown in 4 CIRAD Agricultural Research for Development Table 6 and Fig. 8. As can be noticed, most of these pa- 4 Polytechnic University of Milan pers have addressed subject such as “urban planning,” Amini et al. European Journal of Futures Research (2021) 9:1 Page 7 of 15 Fig. 7 High-frequency keywords in regional foresight papers “science and technology,”“Economic development,” and High-frequency tools and methods “industry.” Studying the selected papers through well-known fore- The multiplicity of articles with topics in the city, vil- sight methods provided a basis for the identification of lage, and region, compared to articles focusing on spe- high-frequency methods used in the related studies. cific subject, indicates that researchers prefer to focus on These studies are illustrated in Fig. 9. multiple subjects in the regions rather than concentrat- In addition to modeling, which outlines how regional ing on a topic. However, this variety of subjects also foresight is implemented, scenario planning has been the points to prioritizing issues with respect to the charac- most commonly used tool for studies. This tool takes re- teristics of the land under consideration. gional planning out of certainty and recognizes future uncertainty in the regions. Results of co-citation analysis Table 4 Frequency of the keywords in regional foresight papers This section examines two issues by analyzing the co- 38 Foresight citation of regional foresight papers: (1) the status of 15 Management journals is analyzed by the co-citation analysis of their 26 Future articles and (2) the intellectual bases of regional 12 Policy foresight. 12 Scenario 11 System Co-citation analysis of journals 10 Innovation In this section, co-citation analysis of the Journals is per- formed based on regional foresight papers and their ref- 9 Impact erences. Table 7 and Fig. 10 present the number of 9 Technology citations and centrality of each journal in the field of re- 8 Governance gional foresight, respectively. As shown in Table 7, Fu- 7 Science tures and Technological Forecasting and Social Change 6 Climate change have been cited most frequently. Research Policy and Re- 6 Regional foresight gional Studies Journal have the most centrality in the co-citation map of journals. 5 Knowledge The centrality of a node is a graph-theoretical property 5 Corporate foresight that quantifies the importance of the node’s position in a 5 Technology foresight network. It measures the percentage of the number of 5 Participation shortest paths in a network to which a given node Amini et al. European Journal of Futures Research (2021) 9:1 Page 8 of 15 Table 5 Shares of journals from regional foresight papers Cluster 1: normative forecasting This cluster, compiled during 2006–2012, focuses on Papers Journals the importance of drawing a vision for addressing 16 1.1. Futures regional and environmental issues, as well as on the 12 1.2. Technological Forecasting and Social Change need for active participation of people in this 5 1.3. European Journal of Futures Research process. For instance, visions of “development of 4 1.4. European Planning Studies hydrogen energy” [109], “urban development” [110], 4 1.5. Foresight and “carbon pollutants” [111] have been outlined 3 1.6. Rynek Energii thematically. Some other papers in this cluster have addressed the potential and importance of visioning 4 1.7. Technology Analysis Strategic Management and backcasting methodologies in solving issues such 2 1.8. Geoforum as urban planning [112, 113] and sustainable devel- 2 1.9. International Journal of Technology Management opment [114]. 2 1.10. Procedia Engineering 2 1.11. Regional Environmental Change Cluster 2: participation This cluster of papers that started from the year belongs. Nodes with high-betweenness centrality tend to 2000 has addressed critical elements in the foresight be found in paths connecting different clusters. process. Some papers consider participation as a ne- cessity for new foresight and strategic planning models [115, 116]. Some articles also point to the Clustering the intellectual bases of regional foresight vital importance of “participation” in regional devel- In this section, co-citation analysis of the relevant re- opment and regional innovation systems [70, 117]. searches is carried out based on a review of the refer- ences (4181 papers) of the 111 selected papers. The Cluster 3: foresight in policy and strategy analysis results are depicted under 5 clusters (Fig. 11) This cluster focuses on the advantages of using foresight in and named (Table 8) considering high-cited papers in strategic management and policy-making. A better under- each cluster and are explained briefly in the following standing of changes, improving response to changes, influ- subdivisions. encing other actors, enhancing organizational learning, Five clusters identified in the intellectual base of re- understanding new businesses [118], developing innovative gional foresight studies show that the foundations of this options, and improving the quality of innovation projects emerging field of knowledge are based on these con- [119] are foresight capabilities for firm-level management. cepts: visioning, participation, innovation systems, fore- Moreover, on a sectoral and national level, foresight sight applications in policy-making and management, is a tool for policy-making [120–122]. This tool can and multi-level governance. help understand discontinuities, increase participation, address long-term issues [120], avoid lock-in of busi- ness clusters by networking [52], and enhance innovation and learning [123]. Moreover, it also helps Table 6 Number and paper references devoted to various the process of formulation and implementation of pol- subjects in the selected papers icies by generating insights regarding the dynamics of Number Papers Subject No. change and building a common awareness [122]. 24 [5, 7–29] Region, city, village 1 22 [30–50] Science and technology 2 Cluster 4: innovation systems This cluster of studies (being published since 2011) fo- 12 [51–62] Industry 3 cuses on interactions between regional foresight and 11 [63–73] Economic development 4 innovation systems; some of them focuses on how 9[74–82] Energy 5 innovation affects foresight [124] while others emphasize 8[83–91] Environment and climate change 6 the effects of foresight on innovation systems [125]. At 4[92–95] Water 7 last, some of these cluster papers discuss the co- 4[96–99] Terrorism 8 evolution of these two knowledge areas [126]. 3[100–102] Food 9 Cluster 5: multi-level governance 3[103–106] Land use 10 The fifth and last cluster of regional foresight papers is 2[107, 108] Crisis management 11 related to studies on the role of foresight in multi-actor 9 ... Others 12 and multi-level governance at the regional level. Some of Amini et al. European Journal of Futures Research (2021) 9:1 Page 9 of 15 Fig. 8 Number of papers devoted to different subjects in the selected papers Fig. 9 Number of methods frequently used in the selected papers Table 7 Citation and centrality of journals in co-citation map of journals Citation Centrality Journal name 69 0.01 1.12. Futures 53 0.03 1.13. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 29 0.02 1.14. Foresight 28 0.46 1.15. Research Policy 21 0.02 1.16. Technology Analysis and Strategic Management 16 0.00 1.17. Thesis 15 0.06 1.18. Harvard Business Review 15 0.07 1.19. HDB Technology Foresight 14 0.01 1.20. Land Use Policy 14 0.04 1.21. Journal of Forecasting 13 0. 09 1.22. Energy Policy 13 0.01 1.23. European Planning Studies 13 0.35 1.24. Regional Studies Journal 12 0.01 1.25. Ecological Economics Journal 12 0.07 1.26. Global Environmental Change Journal 12 0.00 1.27. Long Range Planning Journal 12 0.11 1.28. Strategic Management Journal Amini et al. European Journal of Futures Research (2021) 9:1 Page 10 of 15 Fig. 10 Citation and co-citation map of journals Amini et al. European Journal of Futures Research (2021) 9:1 Page 11 of 15 Fig. 11 The intellectual base of regional foresight studies based on co-citation analysis the papers focus on the actors’ roles at different levels in others show the results of regional foresight studies in regional foresight processes [5, 127]. Some papers dis- different countries [129]. cuss the importance of coordination between regional policies and upper hierarchical levels [128], while some Conclusions The present research is based on the analysis of 111 re- gional foresight papers from 2000 to 2109 and their ref- Table 8 Regional foresight intellectual bases based on co- erences. The obtained results show that regional citation analysis foresight is still an emerging field, despite the increased Cluster No. Cluster name publication and citations over the past years. The key- 1 Normative forecasting words used in the articles indicate the close proximity of the field of regional foresight with the futures studies 2 Participation concepts, policy-making, and sustainable development. 3 Foresight in policy and strategy Most of these studies are conducted within continental 4 Innovation systems Europe. This seems to be due to the relative smallness 5 Multi-level governance of European countries and the division of a geographic Amini et al. European Journal of Futures Research (2021) 9:1 Page 12 of 15 region between several countries. In the same vein, ac- findings of this work. All authors discussed the results and contributed to the final manuscript. The authors read and approved the final manuscript. tive institutes and journals in this area are mainly lo- cated in Europe. Besides, regional foresight has been Authors’ information used in vast countries such as the USA. Such vastness Hamed Amini is a Ph.D. candidate in the field of regional foresight, Mohammad Saeed Jabalameli is Full Professor with a specialized field of land and diversity have encouraged conducting regional fore- use planning, and Hosein Ramesht is Full Professor with a specialized field of sight studies in these countries. Natural Geography and Geomorphology. The multiplicity of articles with topics in the city, village, and region indicates that researchers prefer Funding Not applicable. to focus on multiple subjects in the regions. Conse- quently, in each region, the focus of the issues Availability of data and materials should be determined according to the priorities of Not applicable. the region. Of the available tools, the scenario plan- ning that represents the uncertainty in the future of Declarations the land has been most used. Ethics approval and consent to participate As stated in the text of the article, five intellectual Not applicable. bases of regional foresight researches are normative fore- Consent for publication casting and visioning, participation, foresight in policy Not applicable. and strategy, innovation, and multi-level governance. These categories point to a number of aspects that re- Competing interests gional models and studies of regional prospecting should I can confirm that the manuscript has been read and approved by all named authors. The authors declare no competing interests. focus on, regional stakeholder participation, the creation of a shared stakeholder perspective, innovation, and a Author details long-term perspective on planning and policy-making School of management, economics and progress engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran, Iran. School of Industrial while paying attention to different levels of planning at Engineering, Iran University of Science & Technology, Tehran 1684613114, different levels. Iran. Faculty of Geographical Sciences and Planning, Isfahan University, Regional foresight studies have had significant Isfahan, Iran. merits to date. Attention to the topic of innovation in Received: 7 October 2019 Accepted: 5 March 2021 various formats such as open innovation, social innovation or regional innovation, attention to the need for cross-level translation of programs and sce- References 1. Miles I, Keenan M (2002) Practical guide to regional foresight in the UK. narios at different geographical/governance levels, em- European Commission phasis on stakeholder participation, and the 2. Garavan TN, Siikaniemi L (2012) Information pathways for the competence application of different approaches for analyzing their foresight mechanism in talent management framework. Eur J Train Dev 36(1):46–65. https://doi.org/10.1108/03090591211192629 views, and the high number of cases in these studies 3. M. Gidley J (2017) The future : a very short introduction. Oxford University are all promising points for conducting a set of stud- Press, New York pages cm ies on regional foresight. 4. FOREN (2001) A practical guide to regional foresight. European Commission 5. Gertler MS, Wolfe DA (2004) Local social knowledge management: However, despite these merits, there are some defects community actors, institutions and multilevel governance in regional in this study that may be considered in future works. foresight exercises. Futures 36(1):45–65. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0016-32 The lack of paradigmatic discussions and the focus on 87(03)00139-3 6. Chen C (2006) CiteSpace II: detecting and visualizing emerging trends and tools and methods are one of these defects. Moreover, transient patterns in scientific literature. J Am Soc Inf Sci Technol 57(3):359– these studies often do not use deeper analysis tools such 377. https://doi.org/10.1002/asi.20317 as layer analysis of causes. Another shortcoming that ap- 7. Zambon I et al (2017) Prefiguring a future city: urban growth, spatial planning and the economic local context in Catalonia. Eur Plan Stud 25(10): pears in regional foresight studies is the lack of attention 1797–1817. https://doi.org/10.1080/09654313.2017.1344193 to the historical analysis of regional issues. Ultimately, 8. Kalafatis SE et al (2015) Out of control: how we failed to adapt and suffered the lack of proper assessment models in developed the consequences. J Great Lakes Res 41:20–29. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2 014.12.00 models for regional foresight is another issue that must 9. Dixon T et al (2014) Urban retrofitting: identifying disruptive and sustaining be further addressed in the future. technologies using performative and foresight techniques. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 89:131–144. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.08.027 10. Foran T et al (2013) Developing detailed foresight narratives: a participatory Acknowledgements technique from the Mekong region. Ecol Soc 18(4). https://doi.org/10.5751/ Not applicable. es-05796-180406 11. Eames M et al (2013) City futures: exploring urban retrofit and sustainable Authors’ contributions transitions. Build Res Inf 41(5):504–516. https://doi.org/10.1080/09613218.2 HA and MSJ conceived of the research idea. HA conducts the research 013.805063 methods and performed the computations. MSJ and MHR verified the 12. Docksai R (2012) Strategic foresight for corporate and regional analytical methods and encouraged HA to investigate and supervised the development. Futurist 46(1):49–50 Amini et al. European Journal of Futures Research (2021) 9:1 Page 13 of 15 13. Mahmud J (2011) City foresight and development planning case study: alpine region. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 101:263–274. https://doi.org/10.1 implementation of scenario planning in formulation of the Bulungan 016/j.techfore.2015.06.042 development plan. Futures 43(7):697–706. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2 34. Romanova OGA, Sirotin DV (2015) New technological shape of basic 011.05.011 branches of RF industrial regions. Econ Soc Changes-Facts Trends Forec 14. Leclerc G et al (2010) Participatory modelling and foresight as an entry 41(5):27–43. https://doi.org/10.15838/esc/2015.5.41.2 point for analyzing extensive livestock systems and territorial co-evolution 35. Vecchiato R, Roveda C (2014) Foresight for public procurement and regional processes. Cahiers Agricult 19(2):152–159. https://doi.org/10.1684/agr.2010. innovation policy: the case of Lombardy. Res Policy 43(2):438–450. https:// doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2013.11.003 15. Hanssen GS, Johnstad T, Klausen JE (2009) Regional foresight, modes of 36. Koennoelae T, Salo A, Brummer V (2011) Foresight for European governance and democracy. Eur Plan Stud 17(12):1733–1750. https://doi. coordination: developing national priorities for the forest-based sector org/10.1080/09654310903322272 technology platform. Int J Technol Manag 54(4):438–459. https://doi.org/1 16. Fuller-Love N et al (2006) Scenario analysis and regional economic 0.1504/ijtm.2011.041583 development: the case of mid Wales. Eur Urban Reg Stud 13(2):143–149. 37. Glod F, Duprel C, Keenan M (2009) Foresight for science and technology https://doi.org/10.1177/0969776406062523 priority setting in a small country: the case of Luxembourg. Tech Anal Strat 17. Puglisi M, Marvin S (2002) Developing urban and regional foresight: Manag 21(8):933–951. https://doi.org/10.1080/09537320903262298 exploring capacities and identifying needs in the north west. Futures 34(8): 38. Uotila T, Ahlqvist T (2008) Linking technology foresight and regional 761–777. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0016-3287(02)00019-8 innovation activities: network facilitating innovation policy in Lahti region. 18. Higdem U (2014) The co-creation of regional futures: facilitating action Finland Eur Plan Stud 16(10):1423–1443. https://doi.org/10.1080/0965431 research in regional foresight. Futures 57:41–50. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. 0802420144 futures.2014.01.006 39. Harper JC, Georghiou L (2005) Foresight in innovation policy: shared visions 19. Rodionov D, Rudskaia I, Degtcreva V (2017) Regional foresight as a for a science park and business - university links in a city region. Tech Anal technology for development of the regional innovation system. In: Soliman Strat Manag 17(2):147–160. https://doi.org/10.1080/09537320500088716 KS (ed) Sustainable economic growth, education excellence, and innovation 40. Uotila T, Melkas H, Harmaakorpi V (2005) Incorporating futures research into management through vision 2020, vol Vols I-Vii. Int Business Information regional knowledge creation and management. Futures 37(8):849–866. Management Assoc-Ibima, Norristown, pp 2699–2705 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2005.01.001 20. Ejdys J (2017 of Conference) New silk road - a weak or a strong signal? In: 41. Belis-Bergouignan MC, Lung Y, Heraud JA (2001) Public foresight exercises 7th international conference on engineering, project, and production at an intermediate level: the French national programs and the experience management. Elsevier Science Bv, Amsterdam. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. of Bordeaux. Int J Technol Manag 21(7-8):726–738. https://doi.org/10.1504/ proeng.2017.03.159 IJTM.2001.002946 21. Abdoli S, Habib F, Babazadeh M (2018) Making spatial development scenario 42. Saritas O, Taymaz E, Tumer T (2007) Vision 2023: Turkey's national for south of Bushehr province, Iran, based on strategic foresight. Environ Dev technology foresight program: a contextualist analysis and discussion. Sustain 20(3):1293–1309. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-017-9940-x Technol Forecast Soc Chang 74(8):1374–1393. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. 22. Benedicto-Royuela J, Buckingham S, Eames M (2018) Transitions to techfore.2006.07.005 sustainability in small islands: combining foresight scenarios with multi-criteria 43. Nazarko J et al (2017 of Conference) Structural analysis as an instrument for analysis to develop viable sustainability strategies in an EOR. Int J Sust Dev identification of critical drivers of technology development. In: 7th World 25(8):730–738. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504509.2018.1483442 international conference on engineering, project, and production 23. Florian V, Neagu G (2015 of Conference) Romanian contribution to the management. Elsevier Science Bv, Amsterdam. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. evaluation of a regional foresight exercise using the goal-question-metric proeng.2017.03.137 method. In: Proceedings of the 9th international management conference: 44. Bassani G, Minola T, Vismara S (2016) In: Audretsch D et al (eds) Technology management and innovation for competitive advantage. Editura Ase, foresight for regional economies: a how-to-do guide. University evolution, Bucuresti entrepreneurial activity and regional competitiveness, vol 32. Springer, New 24. Truffer B et al (2010) Local strategic planning processes and sustainability York, pp 385–392 transitions in infrastructure sectors. Environ Policy Gov 20(4):258–269. 45. Kononiuk A, Magruk A (2015 of Conference) Wild cards in polish foresight https://doi.org/10.1002/eet.550 practice. In: 20th international scientific conference - economics and 25. Stoermer E et al (2009) The exploratory analysis of trade-offs in strategic management 2015. Elsevier Science Bv, Amsterdam. https://doi.org/10.1016/ planning: lessons from regional infrastructure foresight. Technol Forecast j.sbspro.2015.11.510 Soc Chang 76(9):1150–1162. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2009.07.008 46. Rudskaia I (2017) Regional innovation foresights: drivers and barriers for 26. Dufva M, Konnola T, Koivisto R (2015) Multi-layered foresight: lessons from development. In: Soliman KS (ed) Vision 2020: sustainable economic regional foresight in Chile. Futures 73:100–111. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. development, innovation management, and global growth, vol I-Ix. Int futures.2015.08.010 Business Information Management Assoc-Ibima, Norristown, pp 889–903 27. Stratigea A, Giaoutzi M (2012) Linking global to regional scenarios in foresight. 47. Lu XQ (2008) Technology foresight and regional industry technology Futures 44(10):847–859. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2012.09.003 development. In: Proceedings of Hangzhou conference on Management of 28. Hilbert M, Miles I, Othmer J (2009) Foresight tools for participative policy- Technology. Zhejiang Gongshang Univ Press, Hangzhou making in inter-governmental processes in developing countries: lessons 48. Li HL, Wang R (2006) Construct technology foresight system for regional learned from the eLAC policy priorities Delphi. Technol Forecast Soc Chang decision maker - case study from Wuhan City, China. In: Zhang H, Zhao RM, 76(7):880–896. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2009.01.001 Chen L (eds) Proceedings of the 2006 international conference on management science and engineering. Orient Acad Forum, Marrickville, pp 29. Nasir GR et al (2019 of Conference) Predictive models and scenarios of 131–135 economic development of the region. In: Economic and social development. Varazdin Development & Entrepreneurship Agency, Varazdin 49. Matveeva MV, Kaluzhnova NY, Peshkov AV (2018 of Conference) Foresight 30. Carayannis EG, Meissner D, Edelkina A (2017) Targeted innovation policy technology to stimulate innovative activity: opportunities and restrictions. and practice intelligence (TIP2E): concepts and implications for theory, In: Rptss 2018 - international conference on research paradigms policy and practice. J Technol Transfer 42(3):460–484. https://doi.org/10.1 transformation in social sciences. Future Acad, Nicosia. https://doi.org/10.154 007/s10961-015-9433-8 05/epsbs.2018.12.95 31. Battistella C, Pillon R (2016) Foresight for regional policy: technological and 50. Wyrwicka MK, Erdeli O (2018) Strategic foresight as the methodology of regional fit. Foresight 18(2):93–116. https://doi.org/10.1108/fs-09-2014-0058 preparing innovation activities. Market Manage Innov (2):339–350. https:// doi.org/10.21272/mmi.2018.2-26 32. Dorr A (2016) Technology blindness and temporal imprecision: rethinking 51. Pombo-Juarez L et al (2017) Wiring up multiple layers of innovation the long term in an era of accelerating technological change. Foresight ecosystems: contemplations from personal health systems foresight. 18(4):391–413. https://doi.org/10.1108/fs-11-2015-0049 Technol Forecast Soc Chang 115:278–288. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. 33. Spiess H et al (2015) Future acceptance of wind energy production: techfore.2016.04.018 exploring future local acceptance of wind energy production in a Swiss Amini et al. European Journal of Futures Research (2021) 9:1 Page 14 of 15 52. Keller J, Markmann C, von der Gracht HA (2015) Foresight support systems 74. Al-Saleh YM et al (2012) Carbon capture, utilisation and storage scenarios to facilitate regional innovations: a conceptualization case for a German for the Gulf cooperation council region: a Delphi-based foresight study. logistics cluster. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 97:15–28. https://doi.org/10.1 Futures 44(1):105–115. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2011.09.002 016/j.techfore.2013.12.031 75. Ropuszynska-Surma E, Szalbierz Z, Borgosz-Koczwara M, Wyłomańska A 53. Ahlqvist T et al (2014) Strategic roadmapping as a policy tool for meso-level (2011) Regional energy strategy on the basis of the foresight study. Rynek industrial transformation: the case of cellulosic fibre value chain in the Energii 93:151–156 green triangle, South Australia. Global perspectives on achieving success in 76. Ropuszynska-Surma E, Weglarz M, Wylomanska A (2011) The foresight study high and low cost operating. Environments:172–207. https://doi.org/10.401 as a tool of the regional energy policy planning. Przeglad Elektrotechniczny 8/978-1-4666-5828-8.ch007 87(9A):226–229 54. Toetzer T, Sedlacek S, Knoflacher M (2011) Designing the future-a reflection 77. Ropuszynska-Surma E, Weglarz M, Wylomanska A (2010) Energy of a transdisciplinary case study in Austria. Futures 43(8):840–852. https:// development strategy on the lower Silesia by using the foresight methods. doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2011.05.026 Rynek Energii 6:105–107 55. Bergez J-E et al (2011) Participatory foresight analysis of the cash crop 78. Guel T et al (2009) An energy-economic scenario analysis of alternative fuels sector at the regional level: case study from southwestern France. Reg for personal transport using the global multi-regional MARKAL model Environ Chang 11(4):951–961. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-011-0232-y (GMM). Energy 34(10):1423–1437. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2009.04.01 56. Frykfors C-O, Jonsson H (2010) Reframing the multilevel triple helix in a 0 regional innovation system: a case of systemic foresight and regimes in 79. Andersen PD et al (2018) The North Sea offshore wind service industry: renewal of Skane's food industry. Tech Anal Strat Manag 22(7):819–829. status, perspectives and a joint action plan. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 81: https://doi.org/10.1080/09537325.2010.511145 2672–2683. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2017.06.073 57. Sorokin DE, Sharafutdinov VN, Onishchenko EV (2017) On the problems of 80. Ropuszynska-Surma E, Weglarz M (2011) Waste management for energy strategic development of tourism in the regions of Russia (case of the purposes in the energy strategy for lower Silesia. Rynek Energii 4:37–42 Krasnodar region and the Resort City of Sochi). Ekonomika Regiona-Econ 81. Auffermann B, Allievi F (2010) Changing energy production, emerging Reg 13(3):764–776. https://doi.org/10.17059/2017-3-10 technologies and regional security. Ener Options Impact Reg Secur:363–377. 58. Szpilko D (2016) NCRR - new foresight research method. In: Simberova I, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-9565-7_20 Milichovsky F, Zizlavsky O (eds) Smart and efficient economy: preparation 82. Shkrobot M, Ropuszynska-Surma E (2018) Polish and Ukrainian foresight into for the future innovative economy. Brno Univ Technology, Fac Business & the directions for the innovation of power plants. Oper Res Decis 28(4):47– Management, Brno, pp 612–620 70. https://doi.org/10.5277/ord180404 59. Prior T et al (2013) Resourcing the future: using foresight in resource governance. 83. Myllyla Y, Kaivo-oja J, Juga J (2016) Strong prospective trends in the Arctic Geoforum 44:316–328. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2012.07.009 and future opportunities in logistics. Polar Geogr 39(3):145–164. https://doi. 60. Macedo D, Mori R Jr, Mizusaki AMP (2017) Sustainability strategies for org/10.1080/1088937x.2016.1184723 dimension stones industry based on northwest region of Espirito Santo state. 84. Mora O et al (2014) Using scenarios for forest adaptation to climate change: Brazil Resour Pol 52:207–216. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2017.03.005 a foresight study of the Landes de Gascogne Forest 2050. Ann For Sci 71(3): 61. Kivinen M, Pokki J, Markovaara-Koivisto M (2018) Discovered and 313–324. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13595-013-0336-2 undiscovered mineral resources: evolving accounts and future prospects of 85. Mokrech M, Nicholls RJ, Dawson RJ (2012) Scenarios of future built minerals in Finland. Miner Econ 31(3):301–317. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13 environment for coastal risk assessment of climate change using a GIS- 563-017-0131-x based multicriteria analysis. Environ Plan B-Plan Design 39(1):120–136. 62. Roveda C, Vecchiato R (2008) Foresight and innovation in the context of https://doi.org/10.1068/b36077 industrial clusters: the case of some Italian districts. Technol Forecast Soc 86. Odada EO, Ochola WO, Olago DO (2009) Understanding future ecosystem Chang 75(6):817–833. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2008.03.004 changes in Lake Victoria basin using participatory local scenarios. Afr J Ecol 63. Piirainen KA, Tanner AN, Alkaersig L (2017) Regional foresight and dynamics 47:147–153 of smart specialization: a typology of regional diversification patterns. 87. Stoermer E (2008) Greening as strategic development in industrial change - Technol Forecast Soc Chang 115:289–300. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. why companies participate in eco-networks. Geoforum 39(1):32–47. https:// techfore.2016.06.027 doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2006.12.001 64. Fabbri E (2016) Strategic planning and foresight: the case of smart 88. Myllyla Y, Kaivo-oja J (2015) Integrating Delphi methodology to some specialisation strategy in Tuscany. Foresight 18(5):491–508. https://doi.org/1 classical concepts of the Boston consulting group framework: Arctic 0.1108/fs-06-2015-0036 maritime technology BCG Delphi foresight-a pilot study from Finland. Eur J 65. Sacio-Szymanska A et al (2016) The future of business in Visegrad region. Fut Res 3(1). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40309-014-0060-7 Eur J Fut Res 4(1). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40309-016-0103-3 89. Sotirov M et al (2017) Do forest policy actors learn through forward- 66. Capello R, Caragliu A, Fratesi U (2015) Global trends and the economic thinking? Conflict and cooperation relating to the past, present and futures crisis: future alternative European growth strategies. Technol Forecast Soc of sustainable forest management in Germany. Forest Policy Econ 85:256– Chang 98:120–136. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2015.06.005 268. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2016.11.011 67. Schwerdtner W et al (2015) Regional open innovation roadmapping: a new 90. Newlands NK (2018) Model-based forecasting of agricultural crop disease framework for innovation-based regional development. Sustainability 7(3): risk at the regional scale, integrating airborne inoculum, environmental, and 2301–2321. https://doi.org/10.3390/su7032301 satellit-based monitoring data. Front Environ Sci 6:16. https://doi.org/10.33 68. Novaky E, Tyukodi G (2010) The responsibility of futurists in strategic 89/fenvs.2078.00063 foresight - Hungarian examples. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 77(9):1546– 91. Serrao-Neumann S, Choy DL (2018) In: Neumann SS, Coudrain A, Coulter L 1549. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2010.06.013 (eds) Uncertainty and future planning: the use of scenario planning for 69. Van Leemput M (2010) Foresight in the Brussels capital region. Futures climate change adaptation planning and decision, in communicating 42(4):370–379. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2009.11.022 climate change information for decision-making. Springer International 70. Harmaakorpi V, Uotila T (2006) Building regional visionary capability. Futures Publishing Ag, Cham, pp 79–90 research in resource-based regional development. Technol Forecast Soc 92. Richard-Ferroudji A et al (2016) The DIALAQ project on sustainable Chang 73(7):778–792. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2005.09.003 groundwater management: a transdisciplinary and transcultural approach to 71. Desmet K (2000) A perfect foresight model of regional development and participatory foresight. Curr Opin Environ Sustain 20:56–60. https://doi.org/1 skill specialization. Reg Sci Urban Econ 30(2):221–242.https://doi.org/10.101 0.1016/j.cosust.2016.06.002 6/s0166-0462(99)00037-x 93. Graveline N et al (2014) Coping with urban & agriculture water demand 72. Kononiuk A, Sacio-Szymanska A (2015) Assessing the maturity level of uncertainty in water management plan design: the interest of participatory foresight in polish companies-a regional perspective. Eur J Fut Res 3(1). scenario analysis. Water Resour Manag 28(10):3075–3093. https://doi.org/1 https://doi.org/10.1007/s40309-015-0082-9 0.1007/s11269-014-0656-5 73. Milshina Y, Vishnevskiy K (2018) Potentials of collaborative foresight for 94. Graveline N et al (2012) Impact of farming on water resources: assessing SMEs. Tech Anal Strat Manag 30(6):701–717. https://doi.org/10.1080/0953732 uncertainty with Monte Carlo simulations in a global change context. Agr 5.2017.1406906 Syst 108:29–41. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2012.01.002 Amini et al. European Journal of Futures Research (2021) 9:1 Page 15 of 15 95. Lienert J, Monstadt J, Truffer B (2006) Future scenarios for a sustainable 118. Rohrbeck R, Schwarz JO (2013) The value contribution of strategic foresight: water sector: a case study from Switzerland. Environ Sci Technol 40(2):436– insights from an empirical study of large European companies. Technol 442. https://doi.org/10.1021/es0514139 Forecast Soc Chang 80(8):1593–1606. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013. 96. Stratigea A, Katsoni V (2015) A strategic policy scenario analysis framework 01.004 for the sustainable tourist development of peripheral small island areas - 119. Rohrbeck R, Gemünden HG (2011) Corporate foresight: its three roles in the case of Lefkada-Greece Island. Eur J Fut Res 3(1). https://doi.org/10.1 enhancing the innovation capacity of a firm. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 007/s40309-015-0063-z 78(2):231–243. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2010.06.019 97. Riensche M et al (2015) Tourism at Costalegre, Mexico: an ecosystem 120. Miles I (2010) The development of technology foresight: a review. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 77(9):1448–1456. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2010. services-based exploration of current challenges and alternative futures. 07.016 Futures 66:70–84. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2014.12.012 121. Havas A (2010) The impact of foresight on innovation policy-making: recent 98. Borodako K (2014) Key foresight attributes of tourism companies in the City experiences and future perspectives. Res Eval. https://doi.org/10.3152/09582 of Krakow and the region. Int J Tour Res 16(3):282–290. https://doi.org/10.1 0210X510133 002/jtr.1927 122. Da Costa O et al (2008) The impact of foresight on policy-making: insights 99. Gardiner S, Grace D, King C (2014) The generation effect: the future of from the FORLEARN mutual learning process. Tech Anal Strat Manag 20(3): domestic tourism in Australia. J Travel Res 53(6):705–720. https://doi.org/1 369–387. https://doi.org/10.1080/09537320802000146 0.1177/0047287514530810 123. Schoen A et al (2011) Tailoring foresight to field specificities. Futures 43(3): 100. de Lattre-Gasquet M, Treyer S (2016) Agrimonde and agrimonde-terra: 232–242. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2010.11.002 foresight approaches compared. Ids Bull-Inst Dev Stud 47(4):37–53. https:// 124. Andersen PD et al (2014) Sectoral innovation system foresight in practice: doi.org/10.19088/1968-2016.154 Nordic facilities management foresight. Futures 61:33–44. https://doi.org/1 101. Sundbo J (2016) Food scenarios 2025: drivers of change between global 0.1016/j.futures.2014.04.012 and regional. Futures 83:75–87. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2016.03.003 125. Cagnin C, Amanatidou E, Keenan M (2012) Orienting European innovation 102. Ronzon T, Paillard S, Chemineau P (2013) Elements for a foresight debate systems towards grand challenges and the roles that FTA can play. Sci on food sustainability. Food system sustainability: insights from Dualine, pp Public Policy 39(2):140–152. https://doi.org/10.1093/scipol/scs014 176–197 126. Andersen AD, Andersen PD (2014) Innovation system foresight. Technol 103. Lestrelin G et al (2017) Collaborative landscape research in Reunion Island: Forecast Soc Chang 88:276–286. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2014.06.01 using spatial modelling and simulation to support territorial foresight and urban planning. Appl Geogr 78:66–77. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.201 127. Puglisi M (2002) Developing urban and regional foresight: exploring 6.11.003 capacities and identifying needs in the north west. Futures. https://doi.org/1 104. Dwyer J (2011) UK land use futures: policy influence and challenges for the 0.1016/S0016-3287(02)00019-8 coming decades. Land Use Policy 28(4):674–683. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.la 128. Koschatzky K (2005) Foresight as a governance concept at the interface ndusepol.2010.12.002 between global challenges and regional innovation potentials. Eur Plan 105. Verkerk PJ et al (2018) Identifying pathways to visions of future land use in Stud 13(4):619–639. https://doi.org/10.1080/09654310500107365 Europe. Reg Environ Chang 18(3):817–830. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113- 129. Georghiou L (2008) In: Georghiou L et al (eds) The handbook of technology 016-1055-7 foresight: concepts and practice, Prime series on research and innovation 106. Botta A et al (2009) Integration of multi-scale stakes in governance by policy. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham applying companion modelling to land use foresight. In: Anderssen RS, Braddock RD, Newham LTH (eds) 18th world Imacs congress and Modsim09 international congress on Modelling and simulation: interfacing Modelling Publisher’sNote and simulation with mathematical and computational sciences. Modelling & Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in Simulation Soc Australia & New Zealand Inc, Christchurch, pp 4395–4401 published maps and institutional affiliations. 107. Capello R, Caragliu A (2016) After crisis scenarios for Europe: alternative evolutions of structural adjustments. Camb J Reg Econ Soc 9(1):81–101. https://doi.org/10.1093/cjres/rsv023 108. Lenton TM (2013) What early warning systems are there for environmental shocks? Environ Sci Policy 27:S60–S75. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2012. 06.011 109. Eames M et al (2006) Negotiating contested visions and place-specific expectations of the hydrogen economy. Tech Anal Strat Manag 18(3-4):361– 374. https://doi.org/10.1080/09537320600777127 110. Inayatullah S (2011) City futures in transformation: emerging issues and case studies. Futures 43(7):654–661. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2011.05.006 111. Hodson M, Marvin S (2012) Mediating low-carbon urban transitions? Forms of organization, knowledge and action. Eur Plan Stud 20(3):421–439. https:// doi.org/10.1080/09654313.2012.651804 112. Gaffikin F, Sterrett K (2006) New visions for old cities: the role of visioning in planning. Plan Theory Pract 7(2):159–178. https://doi.org/10.1080/146493 113. Phdungsilp A (2011) Futures studies’ backcasting method used for strategic sustainable city planning. Futures 43(7):707–714. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. futures.2011.05.012 114. Quist J, Vergragt P (2006) Past and future of backcasting: the shift to stakeholder participation and a proposal for a methodological framework. Futures 38(9):1027–1045. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2006.02.010 115. Cuhls K (2003) From forecasting to foresight processes? New participative foresight activities in Germany. J Forecast 22(2-3):93–111. https://doi.org/1 0.1002/for.848 116. Eriksson EA, Weber KM (2008) Adaptive foresight: navigating the complex landscape of policy strategies. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 75(4):462–482. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2008.02.006 117. Doloreux D (2002) What we should know about regional systems of innovation. Technol Soc. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0160-791X(02)00007-6 http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png European Journal of Futures Research Springer Journals

Development of regional foresight studies between 2000 and 2019: an overview and co-citation analysis

Loading next page...
 
/lp/springer-journals/development-of-regional-foresight-studies-between-2000-and-2019-an-1YdOs8CEs5

References (0)

References for this paper are not available at this time. We will be adding them shortly, thank you for your patience.

Publisher
Springer Journals
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s) 2021
ISSN
2195-4194
eISSN
2195-2248
DOI
10.1186/s40309-021-00170-7
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Regional foresight is one of the regional planning approaches that increase the ability to deal with uncertainty and changes. This study aims to provide an overview of regional foresight studies and domain map to evaluate their merits and defects and direct future studies in this field. For this purpose, 111 papers related to regional foresight were identified at the “Web of Science” in the period 2000 to 2019 and used as the basis for further analysis. These papers have been reviewed in various aspects. In addition, the domain map of regional foresight and its intellectual bases was drawn based on co-citation analysis of these papers and their 4194 references. The domain map includes five main clusters of research areas or intellectual bases for regional foresight: normative forecasting, participation, foresight in policy and strategy, innovation systems, and multi-level governance. Finally, the merits and defects of regional foresight studies are evaluated based on research results and some suggestions are provided for future studies. Keywords: Regional foresight, Regional planning, Domain map, Co-citation analysis, Foresight Introduction foresight is, in fact, the result of the introduction of fore- To account the increasing complexity and speed of sight and its capabilities in territorial issues. changes in the current century in terms of urban and re- Various studies have been conducted on regional fore- gional policy-making, it is necessary to come up with the sight. These studies deal with how to implement or approaches that provide the grounds for anticipating present the achievements of regional foresight in their and becoming ready to face changes. Great changes in cases. After about 20 years from the advent of the con- political, social, cultural, and economic issues and their cept of regional foresight in scientific papers, it may be interactions, as well as inherent uncertainty involved in the time to evaluate the course. In this regard, it is ne- some of these factors, have made it difficult to anticipate cessary to conduct an evaluation that has a comprehen- the future of such changes. Although environment sive look at past research, highlights the strengths and changes have profound effects in some regions, they still achievements of studies of these years, and underlines lack strong well-developed policy institutions that can shortcomings in future studies while demonstrating the cope with such changes [1]. These challenges have led to orientations and roots of regional foresight studies. future-oriented approaches, most commonly known as The remainder of this study is organized as follows: “regional foresight,” to enter territorial issues. Regional The “Conceptual background” section is allocated to de- fine the conceptual backgrounds. The “Methodology” section addresses the methodology of the study, espe- cially the co-citation analysis method used in the re- * Correspondence: Jabal@ie.iust.ac.ir search. The “Overview of papers” section represents an School of Industrial Engineering, Iran University of Science & Technology, overview of key information from selected papers, briefs Tehran 1684613114, Iran Full list of author information is available at the end of the article © The Author(s). 2021 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. Amini et al. European Journal of Futures Research (2021) 9:1 Page 2 of 15 Fig. 1 Typology of five evolving futures approaches [3] about publications, active authors, countries, keywords, FOREN has described “Foresight is a systematic, journals, and most popular methods and issues. The participatory process that involves gathering “Results of co-citation analysis” section presents the re- intelligence, building visions for a medium/long-term sult of co-citation analysis. In this section, also, domain future, informing present-day decisions, mobilizing map of regional foresight and the description of clusters joint actions” (p. 311) [4]. As outlined in the defin- or intellectual bases are provided. Eventually, the “Con- ition, it can be used at various levels and topics. For clusions” section provides the concluding remarks, based example, the subject of foresight can be individuals, on the results of the analysis, the strengths and weak- organizations, societies, regions, countries, conti- nesses of regional foresight studies, and recommenda- nents, planets, and even issues such as technology, tions for further studies. environmental challenges, and humanity. Regional planning issues are to be well suited to the participative and vision-building foresight approaches. Conceptual background Stronger links between regional-based actors, the imme- Foresight is one of the various names used for refer- diacy, and sensitivity of people to variations in their re- ring to the field of studying future. Most commonly gion, and a heightened level of awareness and used names in this field are futures studies, and fore- commitment to the community should all make such sight. The concepts of futures studies (also called fu- approaches valuable in regional settings [4]. The name tures research) and foresight are close to each other. that has been used for foresight in territorial level over Both of these concepts use the same theories and the past 20 years is “regional foresight.” methodology. The main difference is that foresight is Regional foresight means applying foresight methods doing, using, and interacting, while futures studies are for anticipation, participation, networking, vision, and more science-dependent [2]. As shown in Fig. 1,the action at smaller territorial scales where proximity fac- Futures approaches have shifted over time from posi- tors become more critical. This process has five main tivist to pluralist approaches [3]. components [5]: Fig. 2 The conceptual model of CiteSpace II [6] Amini et al. European Journal of Futures Research (2021) 9:1 Page 3 of 15 Fig. 3 Number of regional foresight papers published between 2000 and 2019 (1) Organized anticipation and projection of long-term limitations. After reviewing 200 cases and removing social, economic, and technological developments items that appeared merely because of verbal similarity and needs in the results, 111 valid papers were selected for the sub- (2) Interactive and participative methods of exploratory sequent analysis. debate, analysis, and study that involve a wide The basic attributes of the articles were identified variety of stakeholders through the study of selected articles and thematic ana- (3) Interactive approaches that involve new social lysis in various dimensions. Results are presented as an networks overview of regional foresight studies in the “Overview (4) A guiding strategic vision to which a sense of of papers” section. commitment can be shared Then, an attempt was made to implement co-citation (5) The shared vision is not to be a utopia; there has to analysis in the field of regional foresight with CiteSpace be explicit recognition and explication of the Software. The general approach for detecting and visual- implications for the present-day decisions and izing the emerging trends and transient patterns in sci- actions. entific literature is the basis for the design of this software. “Region” is an important term in the definition of re- In the field of “Information Science,” a specialty is gional foresight. Region means territories that have the conceptualized and visualized as a time-variant duality following two features: geographical proximity and lim- between two fundamental concepts. These concepts are ited spatial range. Rural communities, town/city/histor- “research fronts” and “intellectual bases.” The former is ical regions, regions with specific economic activity/ defined as an emergent and transient grouping of con- cultural identity, and political regions (autonomies, cepts and underlying research issues and the latter—the counties, and provinces), as well, can be covered by the intellectual bases of a research front—is its citation and term region. co-citation footprints in the scientific literature, which is an evolving network of scientific publications cited by research-front concepts (Fig. 2)[6]. Methodology The co-citation analysis performed using CiteSpace In order to achieve the goals of evaluating past research software can greatly enhance the speed and precision and leading future research in the field of regional fore- of the literature review. Moreover, information from sight, four preliminary steps are considered for this re- the intellectual bases of the subject under review by search: (1) sampling and reviewing the related studies, the references of all articles is presented in an illus- (2) thematic analysis of basic attributes of studies to dis- trative way, another achievement that will work with cover an overview of them, (3) co-citation analysis for this method. discovering the domain map of regional foresight and its However, despitethese benefits,there aresomeis- intellectual bases, and (4) assessing the past studies and sues that make it hard to work with this method- giving recommendations for future research. ology. Co-citation analysis is largely the function of Due to the emergence of foresight and regional fore- the initial articles as an input, and sometimes with sight studies, the sampling of studies was performed the choiceof somewrong articles in the input sec- using the director of Web of Science without any time tion, the results are subject to many changes and Foresight for regional development network deviations. Amini et al. European Journal of Futures Research (2021) 9:1 Page 4 of 15 Fig. 4 Number of citations to regional foresight papers between 2000 and 2019 Overview of papers Since the objective of this paper is to present a compre- hensive literature review on “Regional foresight,” which is an emerging knowledge, no time limits have been con- sidered in collecting the relevant papers. While search- Table 1 Regional foresight authors active between 2000 and ing in the “Web of Science,” 111 related papers were found from 2000 to 2019. Software studies showed that Author No-papers Ropuszynska-Surma E 5 the selected papers had 4194 references, which were Kononiuk A 4 used for analyzing and studying the status of “Regional Uotila T 4 foresight.” Weglarz M 4 Eames M 3 Konnola T 3 Number of papers published and cited on regional Rinaudo JD 3 foresight Stormer E 3 Next, the status of regional foresight is studied and Truffer B 3 analyzed considering different criteria. The number Wylomanska A 3 of regional foresight papers published between 2000 Ahlqvist T 2 and 2019 is shown in Fig. 3 and the annual number Capello R 2 of citations to regional foresight papers is presented Roveda C 2 Vecchiato R 2 in Fig. 4. Statistics of this part are indicative of re- Caragliu A 2 gional foresight studies with a growing trend during Dixon T 2 2000–2019. Ejdys J 2 The growing number of citations to regional foresight Graveline N 2 articles also indicates that this area is transforming from Harmaakorpi V 2 an emerging knowledge front into a referenced domain. Hunt M 2 Kaivo-Oja J 2 Leclerc G 2 Regional foresight authors Maurer M 2 In this section, well-known regional foresight authors Melkas H 2 are introduced. Authors’ names and the number of their Miles I 2 papers are shown in Table 1. Also, Fig. 5 shows authors’ Stratigea A 2 Sacio-Szymanska A 2 names and collaborations they have had with other au- Rudskaia I 2 thors. In this figure, thicker connecting lines mean more Hunt M 2 cooperation among the authors and bigger fonts means Saritas O 2 the author has more papers in this field. Amini et al. European Journal of Futures Research (2021) 9:1 Page 5 of 15 Fig. 5 Active authors and their collaborations between 2000 and 2019 Active countries in regional foresight research In this section, countries with the highest number of Table 2 Number of regional foresight papers of different regional foresight researches are introduced in the countries published during 2000–2019 order of their contributions. The country name and No. Country its number of papers published during 2000–2019 15 Finland are presented in Table 2. As can be seen, Finland, 12 Poland England, Poland, France, Russia, Italy, Spain, 12 England Switzerland, and the USA are the leading countries 10 Russia in this regard, in the order of their appurtenance. 9 France 9 Italy Figure 6 presents the share of countries in published 7 Spain papers. 7 Switzerland The results suggest that most regional foresight studies 6 USA are conducted in Europe, probably due to the limited 5 Germany size of most countries in this continent and the need for 5 Australia joint planning of neighboring territories for develop- 4 Austria ment. Furthermore, countries with large terrestrial 4 Wales zones, such as the USA and Russia, have been pursuing 3 Denmark regional foresight because of their territorial diversity 3 Norway within their country. 3 Canada 2 Sweden 2 Belgium 2 Brazil Active universities and institutes in regional foresight 2 Greece Universities and institutes active in regional foresight are 2 Hungary presented in Table 3. The results of this section also 2 Netherlands demonstrate the dominance of European institutions 2 Thailand and universities in regional foresight studies. Amini et al. European Journal of Futures Research (2021) 9:1 Page 6 of 15 Fig. 6 Share of countries in regional foresight papers during 2000–2019 Keywords Keywords present the proximity of futures studies con- Keywords/phrases are important tools in every research cepts policy-making and sustainable development in re- area that help researchers to have access to papers, gional foresight studies. books, and research works related to their field of ex- pertise. Figure 7 shows the most frequent keywords in Active journals in regional foresight this area. Words such as foresight, management, policy, Relevant journals, as well, are an important issue for re- future, and scenario are the main items in Table 4. searchers by showing which journal has published most of the related papers. Table 5 presents the number of papers published in each journal. As can be seen, Fu- tures, Technological Forecast and Social Changes, and European Journal of Futures Research have the highest Table 3 Number of universities and institutes papers in regional frequency in the table. foresight This list is a good reference for finding similar studies No. Universities and institutes and subsequent publications by researchers in the field 6 Bialystok University of Technology of regional foresight. 5 Lappeenranta University of Technology The categories of regional foresight 5 University of Manchester Another issue studied in the selected papers is the cat- 4 Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique Inra egory of their case studies. The results are shown in 4 CIRAD Agricultural Research for Development Table 6 and Fig. 8. As can be noticed, most of these pa- 4 Polytechnic University of Milan pers have addressed subject such as “urban planning,” Amini et al. European Journal of Futures Research (2021) 9:1 Page 7 of 15 Fig. 7 High-frequency keywords in regional foresight papers “science and technology,”“Economic development,” and High-frequency tools and methods “industry.” Studying the selected papers through well-known fore- The multiplicity of articles with topics in the city, vil- sight methods provided a basis for the identification of lage, and region, compared to articles focusing on spe- high-frequency methods used in the related studies. cific subject, indicates that researchers prefer to focus on These studies are illustrated in Fig. 9. multiple subjects in the regions rather than concentrat- In addition to modeling, which outlines how regional ing on a topic. However, this variety of subjects also foresight is implemented, scenario planning has been the points to prioritizing issues with respect to the charac- most commonly used tool for studies. This tool takes re- teristics of the land under consideration. gional planning out of certainty and recognizes future uncertainty in the regions. Results of co-citation analysis Table 4 Frequency of the keywords in regional foresight papers This section examines two issues by analyzing the co- 38 Foresight citation of regional foresight papers: (1) the status of 15 Management journals is analyzed by the co-citation analysis of their 26 Future articles and (2) the intellectual bases of regional 12 Policy foresight. 12 Scenario 11 System Co-citation analysis of journals 10 Innovation In this section, co-citation analysis of the Journals is per- formed based on regional foresight papers and their ref- 9 Impact erences. Table 7 and Fig. 10 present the number of 9 Technology citations and centrality of each journal in the field of re- 8 Governance gional foresight, respectively. As shown in Table 7, Fu- 7 Science tures and Technological Forecasting and Social Change 6 Climate change have been cited most frequently. Research Policy and Re- 6 Regional foresight gional Studies Journal have the most centrality in the co-citation map of journals. 5 Knowledge The centrality of a node is a graph-theoretical property 5 Corporate foresight that quantifies the importance of the node’s position in a 5 Technology foresight network. It measures the percentage of the number of 5 Participation shortest paths in a network to which a given node Amini et al. European Journal of Futures Research (2021) 9:1 Page 8 of 15 Table 5 Shares of journals from regional foresight papers Cluster 1: normative forecasting This cluster, compiled during 2006–2012, focuses on Papers Journals the importance of drawing a vision for addressing 16 1.1. Futures regional and environmental issues, as well as on the 12 1.2. Technological Forecasting and Social Change need for active participation of people in this 5 1.3. European Journal of Futures Research process. For instance, visions of “development of 4 1.4. European Planning Studies hydrogen energy” [109], “urban development” [110], 4 1.5. Foresight and “carbon pollutants” [111] have been outlined 3 1.6. Rynek Energii thematically. Some other papers in this cluster have addressed the potential and importance of visioning 4 1.7. Technology Analysis Strategic Management and backcasting methodologies in solving issues such 2 1.8. Geoforum as urban planning [112, 113] and sustainable devel- 2 1.9. International Journal of Technology Management opment [114]. 2 1.10. Procedia Engineering 2 1.11. Regional Environmental Change Cluster 2: participation This cluster of papers that started from the year belongs. Nodes with high-betweenness centrality tend to 2000 has addressed critical elements in the foresight be found in paths connecting different clusters. process. Some papers consider participation as a ne- cessity for new foresight and strategic planning models [115, 116]. Some articles also point to the Clustering the intellectual bases of regional foresight vital importance of “participation” in regional devel- In this section, co-citation analysis of the relevant re- opment and regional innovation systems [70, 117]. searches is carried out based on a review of the refer- ences (4181 papers) of the 111 selected papers. The Cluster 3: foresight in policy and strategy analysis results are depicted under 5 clusters (Fig. 11) This cluster focuses on the advantages of using foresight in and named (Table 8) considering high-cited papers in strategic management and policy-making. A better under- each cluster and are explained briefly in the following standing of changes, improving response to changes, influ- subdivisions. encing other actors, enhancing organizational learning, Five clusters identified in the intellectual base of re- understanding new businesses [118], developing innovative gional foresight studies show that the foundations of this options, and improving the quality of innovation projects emerging field of knowledge are based on these con- [119] are foresight capabilities for firm-level management. cepts: visioning, participation, innovation systems, fore- Moreover, on a sectoral and national level, foresight sight applications in policy-making and management, is a tool for policy-making [120–122]. This tool can and multi-level governance. help understand discontinuities, increase participation, address long-term issues [120], avoid lock-in of busi- ness clusters by networking [52], and enhance innovation and learning [123]. Moreover, it also helps Table 6 Number and paper references devoted to various the process of formulation and implementation of pol- subjects in the selected papers icies by generating insights regarding the dynamics of Number Papers Subject No. change and building a common awareness [122]. 24 [5, 7–29] Region, city, village 1 22 [30–50] Science and technology 2 Cluster 4: innovation systems This cluster of studies (being published since 2011) fo- 12 [51–62] Industry 3 cuses on interactions between regional foresight and 11 [63–73] Economic development 4 innovation systems; some of them focuses on how 9[74–82] Energy 5 innovation affects foresight [124] while others emphasize 8[83–91] Environment and climate change 6 the effects of foresight on innovation systems [125]. At 4[92–95] Water 7 last, some of these cluster papers discuss the co- 4[96–99] Terrorism 8 evolution of these two knowledge areas [126]. 3[100–102] Food 9 Cluster 5: multi-level governance 3[103–106] Land use 10 The fifth and last cluster of regional foresight papers is 2[107, 108] Crisis management 11 related to studies on the role of foresight in multi-actor 9 ... Others 12 and multi-level governance at the regional level. Some of Amini et al. European Journal of Futures Research (2021) 9:1 Page 9 of 15 Fig. 8 Number of papers devoted to different subjects in the selected papers Fig. 9 Number of methods frequently used in the selected papers Table 7 Citation and centrality of journals in co-citation map of journals Citation Centrality Journal name 69 0.01 1.12. Futures 53 0.03 1.13. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 29 0.02 1.14. Foresight 28 0.46 1.15. Research Policy 21 0.02 1.16. Technology Analysis and Strategic Management 16 0.00 1.17. Thesis 15 0.06 1.18. Harvard Business Review 15 0.07 1.19. HDB Technology Foresight 14 0.01 1.20. Land Use Policy 14 0.04 1.21. Journal of Forecasting 13 0. 09 1.22. Energy Policy 13 0.01 1.23. European Planning Studies 13 0.35 1.24. Regional Studies Journal 12 0.01 1.25. Ecological Economics Journal 12 0.07 1.26. Global Environmental Change Journal 12 0.00 1.27. Long Range Planning Journal 12 0.11 1.28. Strategic Management Journal Amini et al. European Journal of Futures Research (2021) 9:1 Page 10 of 15 Fig. 10 Citation and co-citation map of journals Amini et al. European Journal of Futures Research (2021) 9:1 Page 11 of 15 Fig. 11 The intellectual base of regional foresight studies based on co-citation analysis the papers focus on the actors’ roles at different levels in others show the results of regional foresight studies in regional foresight processes [5, 127]. Some papers dis- different countries [129]. cuss the importance of coordination between regional policies and upper hierarchical levels [128], while some Conclusions The present research is based on the analysis of 111 re- gional foresight papers from 2000 to 2109 and their ref- Table 8 Regional foresight intellectual bases based on co- erences. The obtained results show that regional citation analysis foresight is still an emerging field, despite the increased Cluster No. Cluster name publication and citations over the past years. The key- 1 Normative forecasting words used in the articles indicate the close proximity of the field of regional foresight with the futures studies 2 Participation concepts, policy-making, and sustainable development. 3 Foresight in policy and strategy Most of these studies are conducted within continental 4 Innovation systems Europe. This seems to be due to the relative smallness 5 Multi-level governance of European countries and the division of a geographic Amini et al. European Journal of Futures Research (2021) 9:1 Page 12 of 15 region between several countries. In the same vein, ac- findings of this work. All authors discussed the results and contributed to the final manuscript. The authors read and approved the final manuscript. tive institutes and journals in this area are mainly lo- cated in Europe. Besides, regional foresight has been Authors’ information used in vast countries such as the USA. Such vastness Hamed Amini is a Ph.D. candidate in the field of regional foresight, Mohammad Saeed Jabalameli is Full Professor with a specialized field of land and diversity have encouraged conducting regional fore- use planning, and Hosein Ramesht is Full Professor with a specialized field of sight studies in these countries. Natural Geography and Geomorphology. The multiplicity of articles with topics in the city, village, and region indicates that researchers prefer Funding Not applicable. to focus on multiple subjects in the regions. Conse- quently, in each region, the focus of the issues Availability of data and materials should be determined according to the priorities of Not applicable. the region. Of the available tools, the scenario plan- ning that represents the uncertainty in the future of Declarations the land has been most used. Ethics approval and consent to participate As stated in the text of the article, five intellectual Not applicable. bases of regional foresight researches are normative fore- Consent for publication casting and visioning, participation, foresight in policy Not applicable. and strategy, innovation, and multi-level governance. These categories point to a number of aspects that re- Competing interests gional models and studies of regional prospecting should I can confirm that the manuscript has been read and approved by all named authors. The authors declare no competing interests. focus on, regional stakeholder participation, the creation of a shared stakeholder perspective, innovation, and a Author details long-term perspective on planning and policy-making School of management, economics and progress engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran, Iran. School of Industrial while paying attention to different levels of planning at Engineering, Iran University of Science & Technology, Tehran 1684613114, different levels. Iran. Faculty of Geographical Sciences and Planning, Isfahan University, Regional foresight studies have had significant Isfahan, Iran. merits to date. Attention to the topic of innovation in Received: 7 October 2019 Accepted: 5 March 2021 various formats such as open innovation, social innovation or regional innovation, attention to the need for cross-level translation of programs and sce- References 1. Miles I, Keenan M (2002) Practical guide to regional foresight in the UK. narios at different geographical/governance levels, em- European Commission phasis on stakeholder participation, and the 2. Garavan TN, Siikaniemi L (2012) Information pathways for the competence application of different approaches for analyzing their foresight mechanism in talent management framework. Eur J Train Dev 36(1):46–65. https://doi.org/10.1108/03090591211192629 views, and the high number of cases in these studies 3. M. Gidley J (2017) The future : a very short introduction. Oxford University are all promising points for conducting a set of stud- Press, New York pages cm ies on regional foresight. 4. FOREN (2001) A practical guide to regional foresight. European Commission 5. Gertler MS, Wolfe DA (2004) Local social knowledge management: However, despite these merits, there are some defects community actors, institutions and multilevel governance in regional in this study that may be considered in future works. foresight exercises. Futures 36(1):45–65. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0016-32 The lack of paradigmatic discussions and the focus on 87(03)00139-3 6. Chen C (2006) CiteSpace II: detecting and visualizing emerging trends and tools and methods are one of these defects. Moreover, transient patterns in scientific literature. J Am Soc Inf Sci Technol 57(3):359– these studies often do not use deeper analysis tools such 377. https://doi.org/10.1002/asi.20317 as layer analysis of causes. Another shortcoming that ap- 7. Zambon I et al (2017) Prefiguring a future city: urban growth, spatial planning and the economic local context in Catalonia. Eur Plan Stud 25(10): pears in regional foresight studies is the lack of attention 1797–1817. https://doi.org/10.1080/09654313.2017.1344193 to the historical analysis of regional issues. Ultimately, 8. Kalafatis SE et al (2015) Out of control: how we failed to adapt and suffered the lack of proper assessment models in developed the consequences. J Great Lakes Res 41:20–29. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2 014.12.00 models for regional foresight is another issue that must 9. Dixon T et al (2014) Urban retrofitting: identifying disruptive and sustaining be further addressed in the future. technologies using performative and foresight techniques. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 89:131–144. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.08.027 10. Foran T et al (2013) Developing detailed foresight narratives: a participatory Acknowledgements technique from the Mekong region. Ecol Soc 18(4). https://doi.org/10.5751/ Not applicable. es-05796-180406 11. Eames M et al (2013) City futures: exploring urban retrofit and sustainable Authors’ contributions transitions. Build Res Inf 41(5):504–516. https://doi.org/10.1080/09613218.2 HA and MSJ conceived of the research idea. HA conducts the research 013.805063 methods and performed the computations. MSJ and MHR verified the 12. Docksai R (2012) Strategic foresight for corporate and regional analytical methods and encouraged HA to investigate and supervised the development. Futurist 46(1):49–50 Amini et al. European Journal of Futures Research (2021) 9:1 Page 13 of 15 13. Mahmud J (2011) City foresight and development planning case study: alpine region. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 101:263–274. https://doi.org/10.1 implementation of scenario planning in formulation of the Bulungan 016/j.techfore.2015.06.042 development plan. Futures 43(7):697–706. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2 34. Romanova OGA, Sirotin DV (2015) New technological shape of basic 011.05.011 branches of RF industrial regions. Econ Soc Changes-Facts Trends Forec 14. Leclerc G et al (2010) Participatory modelling and foresight as an entry 41(5):27–43. https://doi.org/10.15838/esc/2015.5.41.2 point for analyzing extensive livestock systems and territorial co-evolution 35. Vecchiato R, Roveda C (2014) Foresight for public procurement and regional processes. Cahiers Agricult 19(2):152–159. https://doi.org/10.1684/agr.2010. innovation policy: the case of Lombardy. Res Policy 43(2):438–450. https:// doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2013.11.003 15. Hanssen GS, Johnstad T, Klausen JE (2009) Regional foresight, modes of 36. Koennoelae T, Salo A, Brummer V (2011) Foresight for European governance and democracy. Eur Plan Stud 17(12):1733–1750. https://doi. coordination: developing national priorities for the forest-based sector org/10.1080/09654310903322272 technology platform. Int J Technol Manag 54(4):438–459. https://doi.org/1 16. Fuller-Love N et al (2006) Scenario analysis and regional economic 0.1504/ijtm.2011.041583 development: the case of mid Wales. Eur Urban Reg Stud 13(2):143–149. 37. Glod F, Duprel C, Keenan M (2009) Foresight for science and technology https://doi.org/10.1177/0969776406062523 priority setting in a small country: the case of Luxembourg. Tech Anal Strat 17. Puglisi M, Marvin S (2002) Developing urban and regional foresight: Manag 21(8):933–951. https://doi.org/10.1080/09537320903262298 exploring capacities and identifying needs in the north west. Futures 34(8): 38. Uotila T, Ahlqvist T (2008) Linking technology foresight and regional 761–777. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0016-3287(02)00019-8 innovation activities: network facilitating innovation policy in Lahti region. 18. Higdem U (2014) The co-creation of regional futures: facilitating action Finland Eur Plan Stud 16(10):1423–1443. https://doi.org/10.1080/0965431 research in regional foresight. Futures 57:41–50. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. 0802420144 futures.2014.01.006 39. Harper JC, Georghiou L (2005) Foresight in innovation policy: shared visions 19. Rodionov D, Rudskaia I, Degtcreva V (2017) Regional foresight as a for a science park and business - university links in a city region. Tech Anal technology for development of the regional innovation system. In: Soliman Strat Manag 17(2):147–160. https://doi.org/10.1080/09537320500088716 KS (ed) Sustainable economic growth, education excellence, and innovation 40. Uotila T, Melkas H, Harmaakorpi V (2005) Incorporating futures research into management through vision 2020, vol Vols I-Vii. Int Business Information regional knowledge creation and management. Futures 37(8):849–866. Management Assoc-Ibima, Norristown, pp 2699–2705 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2005.01.001 20. Ejdys J (2017 of Conference) New silk road - a weak or a strong signal? In: 41. Belis-Bergouignan MC, Lung Y, Heraud JA (2001) Public foresight exercises 7th international conference on engineering, project, and production at an intermediate level: the French national programs and the experience management. Elsevier Science Bv, Amsterdam. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. of Bordeaux. Int J Technol Manag 21(7-8):726–738. https://doi.org/10.1504/ proeng.2017.03.159 IJTM.2001.002946 21. Abdoli S, Habib F, Babazadeh M (2018) Making spatial development scenario 42. Saritas O, Taymaz E, Tumer T (2007) Vision 2023: Turkey's national for south of Bushehr province, Iran, based on strategic foresight. Environ Dev technology foresight program: a contextualist analysis and discussion. Sustain 20(3):1293–1309. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-017-9940-x Technol Forecast Soc Chang 74(8):1374–1393. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. 22. Benedicto-Royuela J, Buckingham S, Eames M (2018) Transitions to techfore.2006.07.005 sustainability in small islands: combining foresight scenarios with multi-criteria 43. Nazarko J et al (2017 of Conference) Structural analysis as an instrument for analysis to develop viable sustainability strategies in an EOR. Int J Sust Dev identification of critical drivers of technology development. In: 7th World 25(8):730–738. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504509.2018.1483442 international conference on engineering, project, and production 23. Florian V, Neagu G (2015 of Conference) Romanian contribution to the management. Elsevier Science Bv, Amsterdam. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. evaluation of a regional foresight exercise using the goal-question-metric proeng.2017.03.137 method. In: Proceedings of the 9th international management conference: 44. Bassani G, Minola T, Vismara S (2016) In: Audretsch D et al (eds) Technology management and innovation for competitive advantage. Editura Ase, foresight for regional economies: a how-to-do guide. University evolution, Bucuresti entrepreneurial activity and regional competitiveness, vol 32. Springer, New 24. Truffer B et al (2010) Local strategic planning processes and sustainability York, pp 385–392 transitions in infrastructure sectors. Environ Policy Gov 20(4):258–269. 45. Kononiuk A, Magruk A (2015 of Conference) Wild cards in polish foresight https://doi.org/10.1002/eet.550 practice. In: 20th international scientific conference - economics and 25. Stoermer E et al (2009) The exploratory analysis of trade-offs in strategic management 2015. Elsevier Science Bv, Amsterdam. https://doi.org/10.1016/ planning: lessons from regional infrastructure foresight. Technol Forecast j.sbspro.2015.11.510 Soc Chang 76(9):1150–1162. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2009.07.008 46. Rudskaia I (2017) Regional innovation foresights: drivers and barriers for 26. Dufva M, Konnola T, Koivisto R (2015) Multi-layered foresight: lessons from development. In: Soliman KS (ed) Vision 2020: sustainable economic regional foresight in Chile. Futures 73:100–111. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. development, innovation management, and global growth, vol I-Ix. Int futures.2015.08.010 Business Information Management Assoc-Ibima, Norristown, pp 889–903 27. Stratigea A, Giaoutzi M (2012) Linking global to regional scenarios in foresight. 47. Lu XQ (2008) Technology foresight and regional industry technology Futures 44(10):847–859. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2012.09.003 development. In: Proceedings of Hangzhou conference on Management of 28. Hilbert M, Miles I, Othmer J (2009) Foresight tools for participative policy- Technology. Zhejiang Gongshang Univ Press, Hangzhou making in inter-governmental processes in developing countries: lessons 48. Li HL, Wang R (2006) Construct technology foresight system for regional learned from the eLAC policy priorities Delphi. Technol Forecast Soc Chang decision maker - case study from Wuhan City, China. In: Zhang H, Zhao RM, 76(7):880–896. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2009.01.001 Chen L (eds) Proceedings of the 2006 international conference on management science and engineering. Orient Acad Forum, Marrickville, pp 29. Nasir GR et al (2019 of Conference) Predictive models and scenarios of 131–135 economic development of the region. In: Economic and social development. Varazdin Development & Entrepreneurship Agency, Varazdin 49. Matveeva MV, Kaluzhnova NY, Peshkov AV (2018 of Conference) Foresight 30. Carayannis EG, Meissner D, Edelkina A (2017) Targeted innovation policy technology to stimulate innovative activity: opportunities and restrictions. and practice intelligence (TIP2E): concepts and implications for theory, In: Rptss 2018 - international conference on research paradigms policy and practice. J Technol Transfer 42(3):460–484. https://doi.org/10.1 transformation in social sciences. Future Acad, Nicosia. https://doi.org/10.154 007/s10961-015-9433-8 05/epsbs.2018.12.95 31. Battistella C, Pillon R (2016) Foresight for regional policy: technological and 50. Wyrwicka MK, Erdeli O (2018) Strategic foresight as the methodology of regional fit. Foresight 18(2):93–116. https://doi.org/10.1108/fs-09-2014-0058 preparing innovation activities. Market Manage Innov (2):339–350. https:// doi.org/10.21272/mmi.2018.2-26 32. Dorr A (2016) Technology blindness and temporal imprecision: rethinking 51. Pombo-Juarez L et al (2017) Wiring up multiple layers of innovation the long term in an era of accelerating technological change. Foresight ecosystems: contemplations from personal health systems foresight. 18(4):391–413. https://doi.org/10.1108/fs-11-2015-0049 Technol Forecast Soc Chang 115:278–288. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. 33. Spiess H et al (2015) Future acceptance of wind energy production: techfore.2016.04.018 exploring future local acceptance of wind energy production in a Swiss Amini et al. European Journal of Futures Research (2021) 9:1 Page 14 of 15 52. Keller J, Markmann C, von der Gracht HA (2015) Foresight support systems 74. Al-Saleh YM et al (2012) Carbon capture, utilisation and storage scenarios to facilitate regional innovations: a conceptualization case for a German for the Gulf cooperation council region: a Delphi-based foresight study. logistics cluster. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 97:15–28. https://doi.org/10.1 Futures 44(1):105–115. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2011.09.002 016/j.techfore.2013.12.031 75. Ropuszynska-Surma E, Szalbierz Z, Borgosz-Koczwara M, Wyłomańska A 53. Ahlqvist T et al (2014) Strategic roadmapping as a policy tool for meso-level (2011) Regional energy strategy on the basis of the foresight study. Rynek industrial transformation: the case of cellulosic fibre value chain in the Energii 93:151–156 green triangle, South Australia. Global perspectives on achieving success in 76. Ropuszynska-Surma E, Weglarz M, Wylomanska A (2011) The foresight study high and low cost operating. Environments:172–207. https://doi.org/10.401 as a tool of the regional energy policy planning. Przeglad Elektrotechniczny 8/978-1-4666-5828-8.ch007 87(9A):226–229 54. Toetzer T, Sedlacek S, Knoflacher M (2011) Designing the future-a reflection 77. Ropuszynska-Surma E, Weglarz M, Wylomanska A (2010) Energy of a transdisciplinary case study in Austria. Futures 43(8):840–852. https:// development strategy on the lower Silesia by using the foresight methods. doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2011.05.026 Rynek Energii 6:105–107 55. Bergez J-E et al (2011) Participatory foresight analysis of the cash crop 78. Guel T et al (2009) An energy-economic scenario analysis of alternative fuels sector at the regional level: case study from southwestern France. Reg for personal transport using the global multi-regional MARKAL model Environ Chang 11(4):951–961. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-011-0232-y (GMM). Energy 34(10):1423–1437. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2009.04.01 56. Frykfors C-O, Jonsson H (2010) Reframing the multilevel triple helix in a 0 regional innovation system: a case of systemic foresight and regimes in 79. Andersen PD et al (2018) The North Sea offshore wind service industry: renewal of Skane's food industry. Tech Anal Strat Manag 22(7):819–829. status, perspectives and a joint action plan. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 81: https://doi.org/10.1080/09537325.2010.511145 2672–2683. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2017.06.073 57. Sorokin DE, Sharafutdinov VN, Onishchenko EV (2017) On the problems of 80. Ropuszynska-Surma E, Weglarz M (2011) Waste management for energy strategic development of tourism in the regions of Russia (case of the purposes in the energy strategy for lower Silesia. Rynek Energii 4:37–42 Krasnodar region and the Resort City of Sochi). Ekonomika Regiona-Econ 81. Auffermann B, Allievi F (2010) Changing energy production, emerging Reg 13(3):764–776. https://doi.org/10.17059/2017-3-10 technologies and regional security. Ener Options Impact Reg Secur:363–377. 58. Szpilko D (2016) NCRR - new foresight research method. In: Simberova I, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-9565-7_20 Milichovsky F, Zizlavsky O (eds) Smart and efficient economy: preparation 82. Shkrobot M, Ropuszynska-Surma E (2018) Polish and Ukrainian foresight into for the future innovative economy. Brno Univ Technology, Fac Business & the directions for the innovation of power plants. Oper Res Decis 28(4):47– Management, Brno, pp 612–620 70. https://doi.org/10.5277/ord180404 59. Prior T et al (2013) Resourcing the future: using foresight in resource governance. 83. Myllyla Y, Kaivo-oja J, Juga J (2016) Strong prospective trends in the Arctic Geoforum 44:316–328. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2012.07.009 and future opportunities in logistics. Polar Geogr 39(3):145–164. https://doi. 60. Macedo D, Mori R Jr, Mizusaki AMP (2017) Sustainability strategies for org/10.1080/1088937x.2016.1184723 dimension stones industry based on northwest region of Espirito Santo state. 84. Mora O et al (2014) Using scenarios for forest adaptation to climate change: Brazil Resour Pol 52:207–216. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2017.03.005 a foresight study of the Landes de Gascogne Forest 2050. Ann For Sci 71(3): 61. Kivinen M, Pokki J, Markovaara-Koivisto M (2018) Discovered and 313–324. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13595-013-0336-2 undiscovered mineral resources: evolving accounts and future prospects of 85. Mokrech M, Nicholls RJ, Dawson RJ (2012) Scenarios of future built minerals in Finland. Miner Econ 31(3):301–317. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13 environment for coastal risk assessment of climate change using a GIS- 563-017-0131-x based multicriteria analysis. Environ Plan B-Plan Design 39(1):120–136. 62. Roveda C, Vecchiato R (2008) Foresight and innovation in the context of https://doi.org/10.1068/b36077 industrial clusters: the case of some Italian districts. Technol Forecast Soc 86. Odada EO, Ochola WO, Olago DO (2009) Understanding future ecosystem Chang 75(6):817–833. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2008.03.004 changes in Lake Victoria basin using participatory local scenarios. Afr J Ecol 63. Piirainen KA, Tanner AN, Alkaersig L (2017) Regional foresight and dynamics 47:147–153 of smart specialization: a typology of regional diversification patterns. 87. Stoermer E (2008) Greening as strategic development in industrial change - Technol Forecast Soc Chang 115:289–300. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. why companies participate in eco-networks. Geoforum 39(1):32–47. https:// techfore.2016.06.027 doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2006.12.001 64. Fabbri E (2016) Strategic planning and foresight: the case of smart 88. Myllyla Y, Kaivo-oja J (2015) Integrating Delphi methodology to some specialisation strategy in Tuscany. Foresight 18(5):491–508. https://doi.org/1 classical concepts of the Boston consulting group framework: Arctic 0.1108/fs-06-2015-0036 maritime technology BCG Delphi foresight-a pilot study from Finland. Eur J 65. Sacio-Szymanska A et al (2016) The future of business in Visegrad region. Fut Res 3(1). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40309-014-0060-7 Eur J Fut Res 4(1). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40309-016-0103-3 89. Sotirov M et al (2017) Do forest policy actors learn through forward- 66. Capello R, Caragliu A, Fratesi U (2015) Global trends and the economic thinking? Conflict and cooperation relating to the past, present and futures crisis: future alternative European growth strategies. Technol Forecast Soc of sustainable forest management in Germany. Forest Policy Econ 85:256– Chang 98:120–136. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2015.06.005 268. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2016.11.011 67. Schwerdtner W et al (2015) Regional open innovation roadmapping: a new 90. Newlands NK (2018) Model-based forecasting of agricultural crop disease framework for innovation-based regional development. Sustainability 7(3): risk at the regional scale, integrating airborne inoculum, environmental, and 2301–2321. https://doi.org/10.3390/su7032301 satellit-based monitoring data. Front Environ Sci 6:16. https://doi.org/10.33 68. Novaky E, Tyukodi G (2010) The responsibility of futurists in strategic 89/fenvs.2078.00063 foresight - Hungarian examples. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 77(9):1546– 91. Serrao-Neumann S, Choy DL (2018) In: Neumann SS, Coudrain A, Coulter L 1549. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2010.06.013 (eds) Uncertainty and future planning: the use of scenario planning for 69. Van Leemput M (2010) Foresight in the Brussels capital region. Futures climate change adaptation planning and decision, in communicating 42(4):370–379. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2009.11.022 climate change information for decision-making. Springer International 70. Harmaakorpi V, Uotila T (2006) Building regional visionary capability. Futures Publishing Ag, Cham, pp 79–90 research in resource-based regional development. Technol Forecast Soc 92. Richard-Ferroudji A et al (2016) The DIALAQ project on sustainable Chang 73(7):778–792. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2005.09.003 groundwater management: a transdisciplinary and transcultural approach to 71. Desmet K (2000) A perfect foresight model of regional development and participatory foresight. Curr Opin Environ Sustain 20:56–60. https://doi.org/1 skill specialization. Reg Sci Urban Econ 30(2):221–242.https://doi.org/10.101 0.1016/j.cosust.2016.06.002 6/s0166-0462(99)00037-x 93. Graveline N et al (2014) Coping with urban & agriculture water demand 72. Kononiuk A, Sacio-Szymanska A (2015) Assessing the maturity level of uncertainty in water management plan design: the interest of participatory foresight in polish companies-a regional perspective. Eur J Fut Res 3(1). scenario analysis. Water Resour Manag 28(10):3075–3093. https://doi.org/1 https://doi.org/10.1007/s40309-015-0082-9 0.1007/s11269-014-0656-5 73. Milshina Y, Vishnevskiy K (2018) Potentials of collaborative foresight for 94. Graveline N et al (2012) Impact of farming on water resources: assessing SMEs. Tech Anal Strat Manag 30(6):701–717. https://doi.org/10.1080/0953732 uncertainty with Monte Carlo simulations in a global change context. Agr 5.2017.1406906 Syst 108:29–41. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2012.01.002 Amini et al. European Journal of Futures Research (2021) 9:1 Page 15 of 15 95. Lienert J, Monstadt J, Truffer B (2006) Future scenarios for a sustainable 118. Rohrbeck R, Schwarz JO (2013) The value contribution of strategic foresight: water sector: a case study from Switzerland. Environ Sci Technol 40(2):436– insights from an empirical study of large European companies. Technol 442. https://doi.org/10.1021/es0514139 Forecast Soc Chang 80(8):1593–1606. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013. 96. Stratigea A, Katsoni V (2015) A strategic policy scenario analysis framework 01.004 for the sustainable tourist development of peripheral small island areas - 119. Rohrbeck R, Gemünden HG (2011) Corporate foresight: its three roles in the case of Lefkada-Greece Island. Eur J Fut Res 3(1). https://doi.org/10.1 enhancing the innovation capacity of a firm. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 007/s40309-015-0063-z 78(2):231–243. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2010.06.019 97. Riensche M et al (2015) Tourism at Costalegre, Mexico: an ecosystem 120. Miles I (2010) The development of technology foresight: a review. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 77(9):1448–1456. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2010. services-based exploration of current challenges and alternative futures. 07.016 Futures 66:70–84. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2014.12.012 121. Havas A (2010) The impact of foresight on innovation policy-making: recent 98. Borodako K (2014) Key foresight attributes of tourism companies in the City experiences and future perspectives. Res Eval. https://doi.org/10.3152/09582 of Krakow and the region. Int J Tour Res 16(3):282–290. https://doi.org/10.1 0210X510133 002/jtr.1927 122. Da Costa O et al (2008) The impact of foresight on policy-making: insights 99. Gardiner S, Grace D, King C (2014) The generation effect: the future of from the FORLEARN mutual learning process. Tech Anal Strat Manag 20(3): domestic tourism in Australia. J Travel Res 53(6):705–720. https://doi.org/1 369–387. https://doi.org/10.1080/09537320802000146 0.1177/0047287514530810 123. Schoen A et al (2011) Tailoring foresight to field specificities. Futures 43(3): 100. de Lattre-Gasquet M, Treyer S (2016) Agrimonde and agrimonde-terra: 232–242. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2010.11.002 foresight approaches compared. Ids Bull-Inst Dev Stud 47(4):37–53. https:// 124. Andersen PD et al (2014) Sectoral innovation system foresight in practice: doi.org/10.19088/1968-2016.154 Nordic facilities management foresight. Futures 61:33–44. https://doi.org/1 101. Sundbo J (2016) Food scenarios 2025: drivers of change between global 0.1016/j.futures.2014.04.012 and regional. Futures 83:75–87. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2016.03.003 125. Cagnin C, Amanatidou E, Keenan M (2012) Orienting European innovation 102. Ronzon T, Paillard S, Chemineau P (2013) Elements for a foresight debate systems towards grand challenges and the roles that FTA can play. Sci on food sustainability. Food system sustainability: insights from Dualine, pp Public Policy 39(2):140–152. https://doi.org/10.1093/scipol/scs014 176–197 126. Andersen AD, Andersen PD (2014) Innovation system foresight. Technol 103. Lestrelin G et al (2017) Collaborative landscape research in Reunion Island: Forecast Soc Chang 88:276–286. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2014.06.01 using spatial modelling and simulation to support territorial foresight and urban planning. Appl Geogr 78:66–77. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.201 127. Puglisi M (2002) Developing urban and regional foresight: exploring 6.11.003 capacities and identifying needs in the north west. Futures. https://doi.org/1 104. Dwyer J (2011) UK land use futures: policy influence and challenges for the 0.1016/S0016-3287(02)00019-8 coming decades. Land Use Policy 28(4):674–683. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.la 128. Koschatzky K (2005) Foresight as a governance concept at the interface ndusepol.2010.12.002 between global challenges and regional innovation potentials. Eur Plan 105. Verkerk PJ et al (2018) Identifying pathways to visions of future land use in Stud 13(4):619–639. https://doi.org/10.1080/09654310500107365 Europe. Reg Environ Chang 18(3):817–830. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113- 129. Georghiou L (2008) In: Georghiou L et al (eds) The handbook of technology 016-1055-7 foresight: concepts and practice, Prime series on research and innovation 106. Botta A et al (2009) Integration of multi-scale stakes in governance by policy. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham applying companion modelling to land use foresight. In: Anderssen RS, Braddock RD, Newham LTH (eds) 18th world Imacs congress and Modsim09 international congress on Modelling and simulation: interfacing Modelling Publisher’sNote and simulation with mathematical and computational sciences. Modelling & Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in Simulation Soc Australia & New Zealand Inc, Christchurch, pp 4395–4401 published maps and institutional affiliations. 107. Capello R, Caragliu A (2016) After crisis scenarios for Europe: alternative evolutions of structural adjustments. Camb J Reg Econ Soc 9(1):81–101. https://doi.org/10.1093/cjres/rsv023 108. Lenton TM (2013) What early warning systems are there for environmental shocks? Environ Sci Policy 27:S60–S75. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2012. 06.011 109. Eames M et al (2006) Negotiating contested visions and place-specific expectations of the hydrogen economy. Tech Anal Strat Manag 18(3-4):361– 374. https://doi.org/10.1080/09537320600777127 110. Inayatullah S (2011) City futures in transformation: emerging issues and case studies. Futures 43(7):654–661. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2011.05.006 111. Hodson M, Marvin S (2012) Mediating low-carbon urban transitions? Forms of organization, knowledge and action. Eur Plan Stud 20(3):421–439. https:// doi.org/10.1080/09654313.2012.651804 112. Gaffikin F, Sterrett K (2006) New visions for old cities: the role of visioning in planning. Plan Theory Pract 7(2):159–178. https://doi.org/10.1080/146493 113. Phdungsilp A (2011) Futures studies’ backcasting method used for strategic sustainable city planning. Futures 43(7):707–714. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. futures.2011.05.012 114. Quist J, Vergragt P (2006) Past and future of backcasting: the shift to stakeholder participation and a proposal for a methodological framework. Futures 38(9):1027–1045. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2006.02.010 115. Cuhls K (2003) From forecasting to foresight processes? New participative foresight activities in Germany. J Forecast 22(2-3):93–111. https://doi.org/1 0.1002/for.848 116. Eriksson EA, Weber KM (2008) Adaptive foresight: navigating the complex landscape of policy strategies. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 75(4):462–482. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2008.02.006 117. Doloreux D (2002) What we should know about regional systems of innovation. Technol Soc. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0160-791X(02)00007-6

Journal

European Journal of Futures ResearchSpringer Journals

Published: Mar 17, 2021

There are no references for this article.