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N. Gopalswamy, A. Lara, S. Yashiro, M. Kaiser, R. Howard (2001)
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Earth Moon Planets (2012) 109:13–27 DOI 10.1007/s11038-012-9398-7 On the Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection Shocks in the Vicinity of the Earth M. Youssef Received: 25 August 2011 / Accepted: 30 July 2012 / Published online: 13 November 2012 Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012 Abstract We studied the relation between the near-Earth signatures of the interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) shocks such as sudden storms commencement (SSC), and their counterparts of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed near-Sun by solar and heliospheric observatory (SOHO)/large angle and spectrometric coronagraph (LASCO) coronagraph during 1996–2008. Our result showed that there is a good correlation between the travel time of the ICMEs shocks and their associated radial speeds. Also we have separated the ICME shocks into two groups according to their effective acceleration and deceleration. The results showed that the faster ICME shocks (with negative accelerations which decelerated by solar wind plasma) are more correlated to their associated travel time than those with positive accelerations. Keywords Coronal mass ejection Interplanetary coronal mass ejection Sudden storms commencement 1 Introduction The coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are thought to be the main geoeffective objects that produce geomagnetic storms, which can affect the Earth. Therefore, the estimation of the arrival time of CMEs in the Earth vicinity is very important in space weather investigations. CMEs are ejected and accelerated by the magnetic field of the corona in the interplanetary space according to their relative velocities with the solar wind (Gopalswamy et al. 2001b). Fast CMEs are decelerated mostly by the solar wind due to friction which is proportional to the square of the velocity difference (Michałek et al. 2004). For building the science-based prediction scheme of space weather, it is important to track the solar disturbances generated shocks and their interactions. Using numerical simulation, Wang and Burlaga (1986) investigated the interactions of inter- planetary shock waves beyond 1 AU. An example is the case when a fast forward shock overtakes and interacts with a fast reverse shock from a preceding event (Smith et al. 1986). CMEs are found to be the primary source of transit interplanetary (IP) disturbances which cause M. Youssef (&) National Research Institutes of Astronomy and Geophysics (NRIAG), Helawn, Egypt e-mail: myousef7174@yahoo.com 123 14 M. Youssef geomagnetic storms (Gopalswamy et al. 2000). Combining CME observations made by solar and heliospheric observatory (SOHO)/large angle and spectrometric coronagraph (LASCO) and ICMEs measurements near the earth (Gopalswamy et al. 2000, 2001 and 2004) developed an empirical model to predict 1 AU arrival time of the CMEs. The model was based on the fact that the range of velocity distribution of ICMEs, detected by the Wind spacecraft was much -1 narrower (in the range 350–650 km s ) in comparison to the velocity distribution of CMEs -1 observed by SOHO/LASCO near the sun (in the range 150–1,050 km s ). Gopalswamy et al. (2000) correlated near-Earth observations of ICMEs detected by the Wind spacecraft with their near-Sun counterparts observed by the solar and SOHO coronagraphs, they used the initial CME velocities to estimate the CME acceleration. This method cannot help us to select all CME events which directed toward to the Earth. This method is good with energetic events only. Cane and Richardson (2003) used the ICMEs too, but they created the CMEs–ICMEs list by manual selection using the solar wind signatures. Schwenn et al. (2005) have studied the association CME with their effects near the Earth by using 181 CMEs obtained from LASCO from January 1997 to 15th April 2001; they found that, there is a unique association between CMEs on the sun and subsequent 50.3 % ICMEs observed near the Earth in out of all 180 cases. In this paper, we studied the relation between the near-Earth signatures of the ICMEs shocks and their counterparts of CMEs observed near-Sun by SOHO/LASCO coronagraph during 1996–2008. Also we have separated the ICME shocks into two groups according to their effective acceleration and deceleration. 2 Data Sources We used 13,863 records of CMEs data obtained from CME Catalogue which observed by SOHO/LASCO, during the solar cycle 23rd (1996–2008). These CME data are available in the CDA website:http://cdaw.gsfc.nasa.gov/CME_list/catalog_description.htm Gopalsw- amy et al. (2000). This catalog contains all CMEs used the same ICMEs to create a list of correlate CME– ICME events by manually identified since 1996 from the LASCO SOHO mission. LASCO has three telescopes C1, C2, and C3. However, only C2 and C3 data are used for uniformity because C1 was diabled in June 1998. At the outset, we would like to point out that the list is necessarily incomplete because of the nature of identification. In the absence of a perfect automatic CME detector program, the manual identification is still the best way to identify CMEs. This data base will serve as a reference to validate automatic identification programs being developed. We also used the X-ray data which was measured and provided by Geostationary Operational Envi- ronmental Satellite (GEOS), during the same interval (1996–2006) with 22,688 records flare events. In addition we obtained the Data of the sudden storms commencement (SSC) events from preliminary reports of the ISGI (Institute de Physique du Globe, France); during this period we selected 345 SSC, events and 13,863 CME events. 3 Methodology 3.1 Model Outline Gopalswamy et al. (2000a, 2001a) developed an empirical model to predict the 1 AU arrival times of CMEs. The model was based on the velocity distribution of ICMEs detected by Wind and ACE spacecrafts (near-Earth) in comparison to the velocity 123 Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection Shocks on the Earth 15 distribution of CMEs observed by SOHO/LASCO (near-Sun). By comparing between two distribution speeds of CMEs, Gopalswamy suggested that CMEs undergo an effective acceleration defined as a = (u - v)/t where u is the initial velocity near-Sun detected by (SOHO/LASCO), is the final velocity detected by Wind and t is the time taken by a given CME to reach Earth. By these assumption we can obtain an expected relation between effective acceleration a, and initial velocity u according to the kinematics equation S ¼ ut þ at ð1Þ The only free parameter required by the model is the initial CME velocity to predict the arrival time t at distance S = 1 AU. To generalize the model, Gopalswamy et al. (2001a) assumed that effective acceleration ceases at some distance d between Sun and Earth. The CMEs travel with constant speed beyond d to reach a point near-Earth at distance d , the 1 2 travel time then is the sum of time t taken to travel the distance d and t that to travel d , 1 1 2 2 i.e., t = t ? t . The model predicted the travel time within mean error of 10.7 h con- 1 2 sidering the best cessation distance is at 0.75 AU). We used this model by solving Eq. (1) for t = T ,S = D and u = V , where, T is C CME C the calculated arrival time of ICME shocks, V is the initial velocity of the ICME, and CME D is the distance from the sun to the Earth’s magnetosphere, since the height of the Earth’s magnetosphere for the surface of the Earth = 10 R (R is the Earth’s radius). Therefore D E E can be calculated from the equation: D ¼ 1AU 10RE ð2Þ V is corrected according to the projection effect of ICMEs with the assumption that CME each CME is like a cone with the front described by an arc of a circle, Hundhausen et al. (1994, see also Leblanc et al. (2001)) derived a formula to relate the real radial speed of the CME, V , to its apparent velocity measured on the plane of the sky, V , which reads as: rad sky 1 þ sin a V ¼ V ð3Þ rad Sky sin / þ sin a where, a is the actual half angular width of the CME, and u is the heliocentric angle of the central axis of the CME, which is given by cosu = cosk cosw, where k and w are the corresponding latitude and longitude of the source region center, respectively. We can correct the calculated arrival time from: T ¼ Minfg jj T T ; ð4Þ Error c SSC where, T is the actual arrival time of the ICME shock impacted the magnetosphere and SSC cause the a SSC, T is the error of the calculated arrival time, and: Error T \T \T ; ð5Þ min SSC max where T and T are minimum and maximum times as a boundary conditions for our model. min max In the second step, we estimate the boundary intervals from Fig. 1 as follows: T & 1 day and T & 7 days. min max 3.2 Estimation of the Boundary Conditions The CME–SSC interval must be between T and T , to estimate these values we will min max need to create a program based on the following steps: 123 16 M. Youssef Fig. 1 Histogram of the travel time of the ICME shock 012 3 456 7 Travel Time (Day) • Reading the data of both CME and SSC (the signature of the arrival of ICME shock). • Correct V according to the projection effect of ICMEs by applying Eq. (3) CME • Estimate the arrival time TC by using Eq. (1). • Calculate the intervals between SSC event and the corresponding ICME shocks by using Eq. (3) • Selecting the CME–ICME shock event which has the minimum value of T . Error 3.3 Selection of the CME–ICME Shocks Associated Events Now, we have two data sets one for ICMEs near the sun and the other for SSC events in the vicinity of the Earth’s magnetosphere, also we have selected the boundary intervals, and then we created a FORTRAN program with the following steps for selecting the ICME shock events: Read the data of both ICMEs and SSC events. Estimate arrival time Tc by using Eq. (1). Apply the condition (4). Find the nearby ICME event to the associated SSC by using Eq. (3). Select the result values of ICME–SSC associated events. 4 Results and Discussions 4.1 Travel Time of the ICME Shock By applying the steps of the FORTRAN program found in Sect. 3.3, we succeeded to select 295 ICME shock associated events and Fig. 1 showed the histogram of the travel time of these selected. Number of Events Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection Shocks on the Earth 17 Our main result is expressed in Fig. 2, from which, we found that the best empirical equation between the travel time, T of the ICME shocks and their associated corrected CME Velocities V is given by: CME ð0:57106Þ T ¼ð854:52ÞðV Þ ð0:22Þð6Þ C ICME This equation have correlation coefficient, R = 0.60 for our 295 CME–ICME shock associated events. From which we found that there is a good correlation between the CMEs and their ICME shocks reached the Earth’s magnetosphere and caused a SSC event as shown in Fig. 2. Moreover from this figure, we found that the Fast CMEs shock the Earth’s Magnetosphere in short period while slow CMEs impact the Earth in long period. Fig. 2 The travel time of ICME 7 shocks R = (0.60) 0 500 1000 1500 2000 Corrected ICME speed (km/s) Fig. 3 The estimated error of the 250 prediction curve of Fig. 2 Mean Error = 5.3 (Hour) 0 10.6 21.2 31.8 42.4 53 63.6 74.2 84.8 Estimated Error (Hour) Number of Events Travel Time of ICME Shock(Day) 18 M. Youssef Table 1 CME–ICME shocks associated list Interval SSC time CME time PA Width LS IS FS S20 Accl E 6.46 4/8/1996 13:34 4/2/1996 2:36 267 37 192 116 263 246 2.7 1.40E ? 29 8.15 7/28/1996 13:07 7/20/1996 9:28 31 175 246 56 429 477 9.4 3.90E ? 29 6.72 11/11/1996 15:27 11/4/1996 22:15 260 20 573 408 726 1044 41.7 1.50E ? 29 7.39 12/2/1996 10:01 11/25/1996 0:40 261 63 258 266 250 239 90.6 2.30E ? 28 1.75 12/14/1996 8:25 12/12/1996 14:30 94 46 206 139 266 362 5.5 1.00E ? 28 2.3 1/10/1997 1:04 1/7/1997 17:45 84 52 156 43 260 423 9.2 1.70E ? 29 0.63 1/11/1997 1:16 1/10/1997 10:04 85 57 325 350 297 297 91.5 4.50E ? 29 8.69 2/9/1997 18:10 2/1/1997 1:37 95 59 218 182 254 351 4.1 1.10E ? 29 2.79 5/25/1997 14:34 5/22/1997 19:30 102 66 346 298 394 507 7.5 3.90E ? 29 7.45 5/26/1997 9:57 5/18/1997 23:13 88 32 353 92 624 650 17.6 1.00E ? 30 7.49 6/19/1997 0:32 6/11/1997 12:48 93 53 94 98 90 34 90.4 1.70E ? 28 4.95 6/22/1997 3:13 6/17/1997 4:30 69 79 185 157 213 312 3.2 4.00E ? 28 0.76 7/15/1997 3:11 7/14/1997 8:51 77 82 258 275 238 237 90.8 1.00E ? 30 2.33 8/3/1997 10:42 8/1/1997 2:40 97 53 183 172 192 318 3.1 6.80E ? 27 3.89 9/2/1997 22:59 8/30/1997 1:30 Halo 360 371 291 460 551 9.3 1.20E ? 30 1.27 9/21/1997 16:51 9/20/1997 10:20 272 97 777 725 827 803 5 1.50E ? 31 1.27 10/1/1997 0:59 9/29/1997 18:30 78 99 369 344 391 421 2.5 2.30E ? 30 0.45 10/10/1997 16:12 10/10/1997 5:20 100 84 308 340 275 239 92.5 3.10E ? 29 9.84 10/23/1997 8:04 10/13/1997 11:51 265 94 323 283 364 356 2 1.50E ? 30 5.27 10/24/1997 11:14 10/19/1997 4:42 92 63 373 381 364 358 90.7 6.50E ? 29 6.55 11/6/1997 22:48 10/31/1997 9:30 262 65 631 309 984 845 26.2 5.70E ? 30 4.06 11/22/1997 9:49 11/18/1997 8:27 272 75 444 362 529 505 5.2 3.70E ? 30 5.71 11/30/1997 8:09 11/24/1997 15:06 69 19 559 710 404 444 913 2.10E ? 29 8.25 12/30/1997 2:09 12/21/1997 20:10 281 77 126 91 162 215 1.7 1.60E ? 28 7.3 1/6/1998 14:16 12/30/1997 7:08 85 56 443 481 406 251 97.1 2.60E ? 29 Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection Shocks on the Earth 19 Table 1 continued Interval SSC time CME time PA Width LS IS FS S20 Accl E 9.14 1/24/1998 5:29 1/15/1998 2:10 92 51 297 288 305 333 1.2 5.00E ? 28 2.65 3/4/1998 11:56 3/1/1998 20:13 268 71 242 156 319 744 22.8 1.80E ? 29 0.19 4/16/1998 21:22 4/16/1998 16:55 297 49 470 445 495 495 2 8.10E ? 29 0.48 4/23/1998 18:25 4/23/1998 6:55 308 20 646 724 565 593 97.6 1.70E ? 30 6.42 5/8/1998 9:52 5/1/1998 23:40 Halo 360 585 511 657 627 8 1.20E ? 31 0.17 5/29/1998 15:36 5/29/1998 11:27 73 63 224 235 212 108 91.8 6.70E ? 28 4.76 6/5/1998 9:41 5/31/1998 15:27 137 28 637 537 737 824 16.9 6.90E ? 29 3.65 6/13/1998 19:25 6/10/1998 3:55 109 144 562 588 534 537 92.5 8.20E ? 29 2 3/10/1999 1:30 3/8/1999 1:26 102 60 536 394 681 1080 43.4 8.00E ? 29 0.39 3/29/1999 1:52 3/28/1999 16:30 355 35 304 290 319 351 1.7 1.00E ? 29 2.9 4/16/1999 11:25 4/13/1999 13:54 109 89 258 196 324 336 3.6 2.10E ? 30 2.4 5/5/1999 15:43 5/3/1999 6:06 Halo 360 1584 1511 1658 1628 15.8 1.30E ? 32 3.1 5/18/1999 0:56 5/14/1999 22:26 141 43 223 235 210 18 92.4 1.30E ? 29 2.81 6/26/1999 20:16 6/24/1999 0:54 256 98 503 488 517 531 1.8 2.00E ? 30 5.02 7/2/1999 0:59 6/27/1999 0:30 271 76 232 223 241 320 2.2 2.50E ? 29 3.9 7/6/1999 15:09 7/2/1999 17:30 39 127 410 321 500 453 4.2 6.90E ? 30 4.81 7/12/1999 2:18 7/7/1999 6:54 244 33 371 377 365 332 91.4 6.40E ? 28 1.16 8/4/1999 2:19 8/2/1999 22:26 271 157 292 284 299 317 0.9 5.80E ? 29 2.8 8/8/1999 18:41 8/5/1999 23:26 258 73 217 212 223 234 0.4 7.50E ? 29 6.3 8/15/1999 10:44 8/9/1999 3:26 197 212 395 425 361 288 94.1 8.10E ? 29 0.25 9/12/1999 3:59 9/11/1999 21:54 35 120 1680 1766 1591 1653 920 3.70E ? 31 9.62 9/15/1999 7:53 9/5/1999 16:54 6 68 278 289 266 178 92.2 1.00E ? 29 2.74 9/15/1999 20:19 9/13/1999 2:30 343 33 652 703 601 520 910 7.00E ? 29 0.31 9/22/1999 12:22 9/22/1999 4:54 78 72 516 481 551 734 13.9 5.20E ? 29 3.01 10/21/1999 2:25 10/18/1999 2:06 298 26 1081 1141 1021 979 915 2.20E ? 30 20 M. Youssef Table 1 continued Interval SSC time CME time PA Width LS IS FS S20 Accl E 5.95 10/28/1999 12:16 10/22/1999 13:26 305 118 478 561 393 440 95.8 4.30E ? 30 0.49 11/5/1999 20:10 11/5/1999 8:26 72 66 284 258 309 386 3.4 4.40E ? 29 8.68 12/12/1999 15:51 12/3/1999 23:30 249 52 330 283 382 450 5.8 3.10E ? 28 5.15 1/11/2000 14:26 1/6/2000 10:54 311 7 472 342 599 1351 70.7 5.00E ? 28 3.83 1/27/2000 14:53 1/23/2000 18:54 235 70 388 501 272 229 98.7 6.90E ? 29 5.01 2/5/2000 15:44 1/31/2000 15:30 117 67 398 421 374 321 93.2 6.00E ? 29 6.17 2/11/2000 23:52 2/5/2000 19:54 60 76 632 764 500 602 99.7 9.10E ? 30 1.78 2/14/2000 7:31 2/12/2000 12:54 342 62 122 77 170 366 5.3 1.40E ? 29 0.35 3/29/2000 19:24 3/29/2000 10:54 Halo 360 949 946 953 951 0.4 3.00E ? 31 0.51 4/6/2000 16:39 4/6/2000 4:30 281 84 524 515 534 558 2 8.50E ? 29 9.62 5/23/2000 14:25 5/13/2000 23:26 353 105 715 266 1202 1081 47.2 1.90E ? 31 9.07 5/23/2000 17:02 5/14/2000 15:26 246 55 683 563 807 786 12.7 7.00E ? 30 4.32 6/8/2000 9:10 6/4/2000 1:31 142 50 399 363 439 517 5.5 9.60E ? 29 0.25 6/11/2000 8:01 6/11/2000 2:08 265 29 243 240 246 251 0.2 3.90E ? 29 0.76 6/12/2000 22:08 6/12/2000 3:54 322 71 298 332 262 207 92.9 4.70E ? 29 8.18 6/23/2000 13:03 6/15/2000 8:50 255 49 940 812 1079 1010 15.4 5.10E ? 30 0.17 7/10/2000 6:38 7/10/2000 2:26 285 12 610 597 624 703 5.9 2.10E ? 29 7.42 7/19/2000 15:27 7/12/2000 5:26 268 47 445 396 498 597 8.3 4.20E ? 29 5.8 7/23/2000 10:41 7/17/2000 15:30 127 30 325 327 323 317 90.3 2.10E ? 29 3.06 7/26/2000 18:57 7/23/2000 17:30 14 96 329 33 654 820 28.6 2.10E ? 30 4.54 7/28/2000 6:34 7/23/2000 17:30 14 96 329 33 654 820 28.6 2.10E ? 30 5.35 8/10/2000 5:01 8/4/2000 20:33 173 123 267 228 308 308 1.8 1.00E ? 30 2.45 9/6/2000 17:00 9/4/2000 6:06 327 145 849 773 927 879 7.6 1.90E ? 31 4.53 9/18/2000 14:43 9/14/2000 2:06 126 69 596 709 473 522 910 1.00E ? 30 4.45 10/3/2000 0:54 9/28/2000 14:06 203 14 353 291 416 542 8.8 8.90E ? 28 Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection Shocks on the Earth 21 Table 1 continued Interval SSC time CME time PA Width LS IS FS S20 Accl E 0.21 10/5/2000 3:26 10/4/2000 22:26 254 51 446 467 426 372 93.5 4.30E ? 29 3.06 10/28/2000 9:54 10/25/2000 8:26 Halo 360 770 605 948 885 17.4 5.10E ? 31 8.47 11/4/2000 2:21 10/26/2000 15:06 285 11 737 799 675 357 922 1.40E ? 29 0.49 11/6/2000 9:47 11/5/2000 22:06 200 36 209 204 214 227 0.4 1.20E ? 29 5.93 11/10/2000 6:28 11/4/2000 8:06 2 83 341 0 677 808 29.8 3.50E ? 29 7.75 11/26/2000 7:58 11/18/2000 13:54 74 120 553 332 781 706 16.2 6.90E ? 30 3.58 11/28/2000 5:31 11/24/2000 15:30 Halo 360 1245 1269 1219 1238 93.3 1.10E ? 32 4.44 12/3/2000 4:09 11/28/2000 17:30 222 31 617 606 629 632 1.3 1.90E ? 30 3.98 12/22/2000 19:25 12/18/2000 19:54 195 62 230 216 246 319 2.3 6.30E ? 29 4.11 1/31/2001 8:05 1/27/2001 5:30 310 17 295 217 380 507 8.8 6.60E ? 28 9.51 2/12/2001 16:13 2/3/2001 3:54 95 56 271 198 347 376 4.5 1.20E ? 29 3.18 3/27/2001 17:47 3/24/2001 13:27 209 34 214 142 295 357 4.5 1.90E ? 29 5.95 4/4/2001 14:55 3/29/2001 16:06 267 33 441 418 467 470 1.9 7.30E ? 28 0.44 4/8/2001 11:01 4/8/2001 0:29 134 79 359 295 427 523 7.6 4.50E ? 29 4.76 4/11/2001 13:43 4/6/2001 19:30 Halo 360 1270 1614 914 1215 957 6.80E ? 31 5.93 4/11/2001 15:19 4/5/2001 17:06 Halo 360 1390 1503 1278 1341 922 8.50E ? 31 3.09 4/13/2001 7:34 4/10/2001 5:30 Halo 360 2411 1947 2876 2974 212 2.60E ? 32 7.8 4/18/2001 0:46 4/10/2001 5:30 Halo 360 2411 1947 2876 2974 212 2.60E ? 32 0.29 4/21/2001 16:01 4/21/2001 9:05 190 22 616 627 604 609 91 3.90E ? 30 0.19 4/28/2001 5:00 4/28/2001 0:30 160 32 270 224 316 310 2.3 9.00E ? 28 1.9 5/27/2001 14:59 5/25/2001 17:26 90 208 930 900 962 947 3.7 2.50E ? 31 3.1 6/18/2001 2:59 6/15/2001 0:30 207 74 633 823 445 447 920 3.30E ? 30 1.6 8/12/2001 11:35 8/10/2001 21:08 45 9 548 322 780 1218 58.6 2.30E ? 29 3.86 8/17/2001 11:03 8/13/2001 14:30 268 114 332 398 260 58 96.5 1.40E ? 30 3.33 8/27/2001 19:52 8/24/2001 11:50 155 11 805 853 762 649 914 1.10E ? 30 22 M. Youssef Table 1 continued Interval SSC time CME time PA Width LS IS FS S20 Accl E 0.18 8/30/2001 14:11 8/30/2001 9:50 129 86 462 344 593 578 8.8 3.70E ? 30 3.63 9/13/2001 2:33 9/9/2001 11:30 233 67 308 247 368 623 13.4 3.00E ? 29 4.47 9/14/2001 2:05 9/9/2001 14:54 98 143 967 1007 925 909 98.1 1.20E ? 31 1.41 9/25/2001 20:25 9/24/2001 10:30 Halo 360 2402 2234 2580 2500 54.1 6.50E ? 32 3.24 9/29/2001 9:40 9/26/2001 3:52 293 97 644 722 561 615 96.3 7.20E ? 31 6.37 9/30/2001 19:24 9/24/2001 10:30 Halo 360 2402 2234 2580 2500 54.1 6.50E ? 32 4.7 10/28/2001 3:19 10/23/2001 10:26 135 41 87 0 222 559 13.4 2.80E ? 28 8.88 11/15/2001 15:09 11/6/2001 18:00 28 26 315 322 307 233 92.1 8.80E ? 28 5.99 11/19/2001 18:15 11/13/2001 18:26 57 44 272 102 439 875 31.6 2.40E ? 29 4.89 12/23/2001 23:16 12/19/2001 1:54 180 5 411 349 476 488 4.8 3.20E ? 28 4.63 12/29/2001 5:38 12/24/2001 14:30 87 49 963 1040 881 865 916 2.10E ? 31 6.59 12/30/2001 20:09 12/24/2001 6:06 258 13 395 426 363 344 92.6 1.20E ? 29 0.36 1/31/2002 21:27 1/31/2002 12:54 19 41 488 295 686 1239 60.3 3.20E ? 29 4.48 2/17/2002 2:55 2/12/2002 15:30 65 118 448 397 502 508 4.3 6.20E ? 30 1.04 2/28/2002 4:51 2/27/2002 3:54 257 79 415 340 499 848 25.2 2.60E ? 30 3.31 3/20/2002 13:28 3/17/2002 6:06 159 21 632 685 577 565 96.3 2.30E ? 29 4.34 3/29/2002 22:37 3/25/2002 14:30 348 53 219 172 265 313 2.9 6.20E ? 29 3.96 4/14/2002 12:34 4/10/2002 13:27 340 159 650 540 759 876 21.2 4.90E ? 30 6.14 4/17/2002 11:07 4/11/2002 7:50 126 47 318 333 303 226 92.5 8.10E ? 29 5.03 4/19/2002 8:35 4/14/2002 7:50 323 76 757 812 700 709 96.5 8.00E ? 30 4.53 4/23/2002 4:48 4/18/2002 16:06 247 85 804 704 912 883 12.3 1.90E ? 31 3.96 5/10/2002 11:23 5/6/2002 12:26 88 17 193 193 193 196 0 1.60E ? 28 5.18 5/11/2002 10:14 5/6/2002 5:50 112 69 226 200 253 379 4.4 1.10E ? 29 6.49 5/18/2002 20:08 5/12/2002 8:26 214 59 506 509 504 500 90.4 1.90E ? 30 4.34 5/21/2002 22:03 5/17/2002 13:50 89 16 552 499 603 789 15.5 5.00E ? 29 Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection Shocks on the Earth 23 Table 1 continued Interval SSC time CME time PA Width LS IS FS S20 Accl E 5.59 5/30/2002 2:04 5/24/2002 11:50 215 38 268 187 347 749 21.9 2.20E ? 29 4.12 6/1/2002 16:44 5/28/2002 13:50 232 17 643 587 697 863 16.8 2.50E ? 29 8.34 6/8/2002 11:40 5/31/2002 3:26 301 101 341 388 293 55 96.1 2.70E ? 30 8.36 7/17/2002 16:04 7/9/2002 7:31 116 14 523 549 499 430 95 1.60E ? 29 0.25 7/25/2002 13:36 7/25/2002 7:32 277 32 340 329 350 378 1.9 5.60E ? 29 3.74 7/29/2002 13:21 7/25/2002 19:31 272 29 556 572 539 516 93 1.90E ? 30 5.29 8/1/2002 5:10 7/26/2002 22:06 Halo 360 818 820 816 817 90.1 3.50E ? 31 2.61 8/26/2002 11:31 8/23/2002 20:50 262 131 861 1041 665 817 922 1.90E ? 31 4.29 9/7/2002 16:36 9/3/2002 9:40 259 42 447 524 366 313 97.3 9.30E ? 29 9.51 9/30/2002 8:15 9/20/2002 20:06 213 77 738 738 739 739 0.1 1.50E ? 30 4.9 11/9/2002 18:49 11/4/2002 21:08 142 70 352 321 383 468 5.3 1.90E ? 30 9.69 11/20/2002 11:08 11/10/2002 18:30 300 25 512 271 727 1521 106 1.40E ? 29 4.35 11/26/2002 21:50 11/22/2002 13:27 133 24 514 614 413 80 917 1.30E ? 30 3.07 12/22/2002 10:29 12/19/2002 8:54 Halo 360 433 519 333 368 95.9 1.80E ? 29 3.59 3/20/2003 4:44 3/16/2003 14:30 236 24 619 610 627 634 1.3 6.00E ? 29 2.8 4/8/2003 1:11 4/5/2003 6:06 204 14 459 408 512 478 2.6 1.40E ? 28 2.69 5/5/2003 5:04 5/2/2003 12:26 222 41 595 750 433 472 915 3.90E ? 29 7.95 6/18/2003 5:12 6/10/2003 6:30 Halo 360 525 555 496 499 92.7 1.30E ? 31 0.74 8/17/2003 14:21 8/16/2003 20:29 246 60 565 588 543 496 94.2 7.90E ? 26 4.81 10/24/2003 15:24 10/19/2003 19:52 104 113 799 626 965 1090 34.5 4.20E ? 30 4.92 10/26/2003 19:08 10/21/2003 20:58 108 75 602 305 895 1050 44.2 1.20E ? 31 9.09 10/28/2003 2:06 10/18/2003 23:55 98 114 544 521 569 566 2.3 8.80E ? 30 8.1 10/29/2003 6:11 10/21/2003 3:54 Halo 360 1484 2014 923 1059 9124.3 1.30E ? 32 2.3 11/4/2003 6:25 11/1/2003 23:06 254 93 899 1112 676 802 926 3.60E ? 31 9.9 1/6/2004 19:51 12/27/2003 22:20 56 15 600 539 658 680 7.3 3.50E ? 29 24 M. Youssef Table 1 continued Interval SSC time CME time PA Width LS IS FS S20 Accl E 8.59 1/22/2004 1:37 1/13/2004 11:30 177 88 538 364 735 819 22.6 1.20E ? 28 0.24 4/3/2004 9:47 4/3/2004 4:00 250 41 341 353 328 308 91.3 3.40E ? 28 5.34 4/3/2004 14:10 3/29/2004 6:00 120 15 528 561 493 476 93.9 6.20E ? 28 7.19 4/9/2004 2:33 4/1/2004 22:00 59 79 460 325 613 528 7.1 3.70E ? 30 2.91 4/12/2004 18:17 4/9/2004 20:30 227 273 977 1000 955 959 93.3 4.30E ? 30 6.25 4/26/2004 16:03 4/20/2004 10:08 296 98 248 176 323 296 2.3 6.70E ? 29 5.31 7/16/2004 21:55 7/11/2004 14:30 37 39 470 326 614 784 21.4 4.60E ? 28 4.36 7/22/2004 10:36 7/18/2004 1:54 231 10 541 371 708 1134 49.2 1.50E ? 28 3.34 7/24/2004 6:14 7/20/2004 22:06 149 43 470 450 492 571 5.3 4.70E ? 28 4.86 7/30/2004 21:14 7/26/2004 0:30 217 64 474 349 598 676 13.7 4.80E ? 29 0.32 8/29/2004 10:04 8/29/2004 2:30 274 29 1195 1340 1044 849 946 5.00E ? 29 0.22 10/27/2004 12:12 10/27/2004 6:54 82 16 281 207 362 1029 43.2 1.20E ? 28 1.08 11/9/2004 9:30 11/8/2004 7:31 242 19 213 209 217 239 0.6 5.10E ? 28 7.1 12/5/2004 7:46 11/28/2004 5:26 65 23 425 395 457 504 4.1 2.40E ? 29 3.34 12/11/2004 13:40 12/8/2004 5:26 163 7 561 498 628 1227 54.1 2.50E ? 28 6.03 12/30/2004 6:23 12/24/2004 5:36 291 92 779 614 961 1336 58 4.10E ? 30 PA: is the CME position angle (), Width: is the CME angular width (), Ls: CME linear velocity (km/s), Is: CME initial velocity (km/s), FS: CME final velocity (km/s), S20: CME velocity at distance of 20Rs (km/s), Accl.: CME acceleration (m/s ), E CME energy (erg) Interval: Time interval of the arriving of ICME shock to the magnetosphere (days) Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection Shocks on the Earth 25 4.2 Estimated Error Figure 3 shows a histogram of computed error in the arrival time of the prediction curve in Fig. 2. The error is defined as the deviation from the prediction curve for each of the measured travel times in Table 1. It is observed from Fig. 3, that our model has a lower average estimated error (5.3 h). Goplaswamy et al. (2001a) found the mean value of this error is within of 10.7 h. The differences between this result and that obtained by Gopalswamy et al. (2000a, 2001a), may be owed to the model of Gopalswamy et al. (2000a, 2001a) predicted the arrival time of ICME ejecta to the near- Earth orbit using Newton’s low of ICME motions while our model is concerned with the prediction of the ICME shocks from the sun until the ICME shock reaches Fig. 4 The travel time of ICMEs Travel Time of ICME Shochs with shocks for both negative (above) negative accelerations and positive accelerations (below) R = (0.65) 0 500 1000 1500 2000 Corrected ICME Speed (km/s) Travel time of ICME Shocks with Positive accelerations R =( 0.46) 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 Corrected ICME speed (km/s) Travel Time of ICME Shock(Day) Travel Time Of ICME Shock(Day) 26 M. Youssef Fig. 5 Histogram of estimated error for fast ICMEs Mean Error = 4.39 (Hours) 0 4.4 8.8 13.2 17.6 22 26.4 30.8 35.2 Estimated Error for Fast ICMEs (Hour) the Earth’s magnetosphere not the near -Earth orbit as the Gopalswamy et al. (2000a, 2001a), followed the ICME ejecta. Or may be owed to the 3-D structure of the ICME shocks used in our model are more wider than those of ICME ejecta used by Gopalswamy et al. 2001a). Otherwise may be due to the differences in the periods and the number of events in each study. 4.3 The Accelerated and Decelerated ICME Shocks In this section we separated the ICME shock events into two groups according to their effective acceleration and deceleration. From Fig. 4 we showed that the faster ICMEs (with negative acceleration are decelerated by solar wind plasma) are more correlated to their associated travel times than ICMEs with positive acceleration. The fractional error bars of fast ICME shocks is found to be equal to 4.39 h as shown from Fig. 5. This result could be interpreted by the fact that the fast ICME shocks reach the Earth’s magnetosphere in shorter time than the slow ICME shocks. Consequently, the errors in the travel time of the fast ICME shocks are less than those for the slow events. 5 Conclusions In the present paper, the relation between the near-Earth ICME shocks and their associated ICMEs observed near-Sun by SOHO/LASCO coronagraph have been studied during the 23rd solar cycle. According to this study, we obtained an empirical equation between the travel times, T of the ICME shocks and their associated corrected CME Velocities V , from which we CME can predict the value of T if we know the value of V . Also we found that there is a C CME good correspondence between the travel time of the ICMEs shocks and their associated radial speeds. In addition we have separated the ICME shocks into two sets according to their effective acceleration and deceleration. The results showed that the faster ICME shocks (with negative accelerations) are more connected to their associated travel times than those with positive accelerations. References H.V. Cane, I.G. Richardson, Interplanetary coronal mass ejections in the near-Earth solar wind during 1996–2002. J. Geophys. Res. (Space Physics) 108(A4), SSH 6-1, Cite ID 1156, doi: 10.1029/2002JA 009817,2003 Number of Events Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection Shocks on the Earth 27 N. Gopalswamy, A. Lara, R.P. Lepping, M.L. Kaiser, D. Berdichevsky, O.C. St. Cyr, Interplanetary acceleration of coronal mass ejections. Geophys. Res. Lett. 27(2), 145–148 (2000a) N. Gopalswamy, A. Lara, M.L. Kaiser, An Empirical Model to Predict the Arrival of CMEs at 1 AU, American Astronomical Society, SPD Meeting #31, #02.83. Bull. Am. Astron. Soc. 32, 825 (2000b) N. Gopalswamy, A. Lara, S. Dasso, S. Yashiro, Testing the empirical cme arrival model using earth directed events. American Geophysical Union, Spring Meeting 2001, abstract #SH61A-05 (2001a) N. Gopalswamy, A. Lara, S. Yashiro, M. Kaiser, R. Howard, Predicting the 1-AU arrival times of coronal mass ejections. J. Geophys. 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Discover Space – Springer Journals
Published: Dec 1, 2012
Keywords: Coronal mass ejection; Interplanetary coronal mass ejection; Sudden storms commencement
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