EE 16-3-Agerup_p2.qxd 30-6-05 9:47 am Page 579 THE SCENARIOS UNDERLYING CLIMATE CHANGE ‘PREDICTIONS’ Martin Ågerup Submitted by International Policy Network To the House of Lords Inquiry on Aspects of the Economics of Climate Change 1.1 Scientists are in broad agreement that human activities have some influence on global mean temperatures and climate, but they disagree about the extent of this influence. Absent the influence of humanity, the earth’s climate would not be stable – it experiences extreme natural changes, and small manmade temperature increases are likely not to be a huge problem. 1.2 It is almost as uncontroversial that uncontrolled human emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) will result in an increase in global mean temperatures – all other things being equal. This does not in itself justify political action in general or climate mitigation in particular. The earth’s climate would not be stable without human influence. In fact climate has always changed and will always change. Therefore, small manmade temperature increases are not a problem. 1.3 Some greenhouse gases are more effective per molecule when it comes to trapping infrared radiation than others. In order to simplify a matter slightly, the concentrations of the different GHGs in the atmosphere
Energy & Environment – SAGE
Published: Jul 1, 2005
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