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Predilection or Prediction? Country Selection for the President's Daily Intelligence Brief, 1961–1977

Predilection or Prediction? Country Selection for the President's Daily Intelligence Brief,... A study of the daily briefings of US presidents by the intelligence community offers a useful test of whether governments can surmount intragovernmental influences in the acquisition and processing of information. A finding that the briefs somehow anticipate events would suggest that governments—their leaders and organizations—rise above political incentives and institutional practices to approach the rationality that realist and liberal scholars attribute to states. This study, thus, examines which countries appear in (the now declassified) daily intelligence briefs of the 1961–(January)1977 period, covering the Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon, and Ford years. It not only finds evidence that the selection of countries for the briefs favors countries referenced in prior briefs (per the foreign-policy literature) but also finds significant evidence that the appearance of countries, in the briefs, anticipates their increased activity in the period to follow (per a rational model). http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Foreign Policy Analysis Oxford University Press

Predilection or Prediction? Country Selection for the President's Daily Intelligence Brief, 1961–1977

Lebovic, James H
Foreign Policy Analysis , Volume 18 (1): 1 – Dec 9, 2021
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References (49)

Publisher
Oxford University Press
Copyright
© The Author(s) (2021). Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Studies Association.
ISSN
1743-8586
eISSN
1743-8594
DOI
10.1093/fpa/orab036
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

A study of the daily briefings of US presidents by the intelligence community offers a useful test of whether governments can surmount intragovernmental influences in the acquisition and processing of information. A finding that the briefs somehow anticipate events would suggest that governments—their leaders and organizations—rise above political incentives and institutional practices to approach the rationality that realist and liberal scholars attribute to states. This study, thus, examines which countries appear in (the now declassified) daily intelligence briefs of the 1961–(January)1977 period, covering the Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon, and Ford years. It not only finds evidence that the selection of countries for the briefs favors countries referenced in prior briefs (per the foreign-policy literature) but also finds significant evidence that the appearance of countries, in the briefs, anticipates their increased activity in the period to follow (per a rational model).

Journal

Foreign Policy Analysis – Oxford University Press

Published: Dec 9, 2021

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