Abstract Carbon dioxide must be removed from the atmosphere to limit climate change to 2°C or less. The integrated assessment models used to develop climate policy acknowledge the need to implement net negative carbon emission strategies, including bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), to meet global climate imperatives. The implications of BECCS for the food, water, energy, biodiversity, and social systems (FWEBS) nexus at regional scales, however, remain unclear. Here, we present an interdisciplinary research framework to examine the trade-offs as well as the opportunities among BECCS scenarios and FWEBS on regional scales using the Upper Missouri River Basin (UMRB) as a case study. We describe the physical, biological, and social attributes of the UMRB, and we use grassland bird populations as an example of how biodiversity is influenced by energy transitions, including BECCS. We then outline a “conservation” BECCS strategy that incorporates societal values and emphasizes biodiversity conservation. Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) continue to increase as a result of land-use change, fossil energy production, and other anthropogenic activities (Le Quéré et al. 2013). To ameliorate the impact of GHGs on climate, international negotiations led by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) target a 2°C maximum increase in global average temperature (Meinshausen et al. 2009), assumed to be a “safe” threshold for climate change. The Paris Agreement, signed on 22 April 2016 by 195 countries, takes this effort a step further by pursuing efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C (Hulme 2016, Rogelj et al. 2016). Such targets guide policy scenarios for fossil-fuel management via integrated assessment models (IAMs) to achieve climate stabilization (Moss et al. 2010). Integrated assessment models emphasize interactions among global economic, energy, land-use, and technology systems (Jones et al. 2013, Collins et al. 2015) and play a major role in climate-change-mitigation policy, with large implications for Earth-system management (Schellnhuber 1999, Barros 2014, Stocker 2014). Since the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5; IPCC 2014), the development of global GHG reduction scenarios via IAMs has shifted to emphasize net negative CO2 emission—that is, net carbon sequestration. This is because GHG emissions will now peak later than previously hoped and atmospheric GHG concentrations will decline less steeply than necessary to avoid climate warming of 2°C or less (Rockström et al. 2017). Negative CO2 emission pathways rely on emerging technologies, including bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS; Kriegler et al. 2013, van Vuuren et al. 2013), in which biomass is used to generate energy and CO2 is removed from the atmosphere through geologic sequestration or by enhancing natural carbon (C) storage (Fuss et al. 2013, Smith et al. 2015). The proposed BECCS economy is important to modeling efforts in the latest IPCC AR5 (Tavoni et al. 2014) and continues to play a large role in the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) of the forthcoming Sixth IPCC Assessment Report (Lotze-Campen et al. 2013, Riahi et al. 2017). To meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, global anthropogenic CO2 emissions need to be reduced by approximately half every decade, and atmospheric CO2 removal needs to approach 5 metric gigatons per year with no net land-use emissions—including those due to land-use change—by 2050 (Rockström et al. 2017), underscoring the importance of adopting CO2 removal techniques such as BECCS globally. Although BECCS may make sense in global climate scenarios, the implications of BECCS for food security, clean energy, water resources, biodiversity, social systems, and other attributes of value to society at regional scales are less clear (Rhodes and Keith 2008, Bonsch et al. 2014, Tian et al. 2016). Despite the importance of BECCS in the UNFCCC process, environmental and socioeconomic trade-offs for large-scale deployment of BECCS are poorly considered in regional studies and are of growing concern, calling into question the overall validity of IAMs as they guide policy (Fuss et al. 2014, Smith et al. 2015, Zilberman 2015). Here, we describe an interdisciplinary framework for analyzing the trade-offs and opportunities among emerging BECCS strategies and the regional food, water, energy, biodiversity, and social systems (FWEBS) that they affect across a diverse and changing region of North America, the Upper Missouri River Basin (UMRB; figure 1). We first describe the FWEBS research framework (figure 2) and characterize the UMRB as a case study for regional BECCS implementation; we then discuss how scenario development can help us understand its interaction with the FWEBS nexus (figure 3). The discussion is guided by our goal to understand whether negative CO2 emissions can be reached in the UMRB, under what land-use configurations, and at what cost or benefit to local communities and ecosystem (as well as Earth-system) services. Figure 1. View largeDownload slide The Upper Missouri River Basin (UMRB) is defined as the region upriver from the confluence of the Big Sioux and Missouri Rivers in Sioux City, Iowa (excluding the Niobrara watershed), with major land-use classifications and administrative (state and reservation) boundaries. Figure 1. View largeDownload slide The Upper Missouri River Basin (UMRB) is defined as the region upriver from the confluence of the Big Sioux and Missouri Rivers in Sioux City, Iowa (excluding the Niobrara watershed), with major land-use classifications and administrative (state and reservation) boundaries. Figure 2. View largeDownload slide Conceptual diagrams following Foley and colleagues (2005) for business-as-usual scenarios, “aggressive” bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) scenarios, and “conservation” BECCS scenarios that integrate sustainable management of the food, water, energy, biodiversity, and social systems (FWEBS) nexus. Figure 2. View largeDownload slide Conceptual diagrams following Foley and colleagues (2005) for business-as-usual scenarios, “aggressive” bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) scenarios, and “conservation” BECCS scenarios that integrate sustainable management of the food, water, energy, biodiversity, and social systems (FWEBS) nexus. Figure 3. View largeDownload slide The interaction among climate change and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) scenarios, with key attributes of the food, water, energy, biodiversity, and social systems (FWEBS) nexus, including the domain in which coupled interactions in the Upper Missouri River Basin will be modeled. Figure 3. View largeDownload slide The interaction among climate change and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) scenarios, with key attributes of the food, water, energy, biodiversity, and social systems (FWEBS) nexus, including the domain in which coupled interactions in the Upper Missouri River Basin will be modeled. The food, water, energy, biodiversity, and social-systems research framework The implementation of a BECCS-based economy will affect multiple ecosystem and societal services, including water quality and supply (Popp et al. 2014, Albanito et al. 2015), human nutrition (Tilman and Clark 2014), technology (Baum 2014), regional economics (Muratori et al. 2016), biodiversity (Powell and Lenton 2013), and cultural ecosystem services (Galaz 2012, Scholes 2016). The processes influenced by regional BECCS strategies must be studied in concert; we need to take into account how to provide for society's growing demand for food, water, and energy while maintaining biodiversity, ecosystem services, and economic and social systems, including cultural values and identity, social networks, and livelihoods. The interconnectedness of these systems that support human well-being and lifestyles is increasingly evident and has led researchers to approach these systems as a nexus—the water–energy–food (WEF) nexus—for identifying cross-sector efficiencies (Scanlon et al. 2017) and to develop solutions to pressing resource challenges without unintended consequences (Scott et al. 2015). Each system within the WEF nexus can be viewed as a socioecological system comprising biophysical components and human components that are characterized by dynamic feedback loops. BECCS approaches that emphasize terrestrial C storage may prove technically feasible, but in the context of the WEF nexus, their implications for regional economies may make such approaches socially impractical. Scholars, practitioners, and policymakers have promoted the WEF nexus as a conceptual tool for approaching sustainability, including the United Nation's sustainable development goals (SDGs), and protecting against potential risks of future water, energy, and food insecurity (Biggs et al. 2015). However, research frameworks for nexus thinking often fail to incorporate biodiversity and other ecosystem services, as well as social dimensions such as livelihoods (Biggs et al. 2015). In order to address this shortcoming regarding the WEF nexus, we propose a research framework that explicity considers biodiversity and social systems as part of the WEF nexus in what we present here as the FWEBS nexus (figures 2 and 3). It is expected that a FWEBS research framework that explicitly accounts for biodiversity and social systems will allow us to more comprehensively examine trade-offs and opportunities with various climate change and climate mitigation scenarios including BECCS. We anticipate that others can adapt the FWEBS framework for application and testing in other regions, including low-, middle-, and high-income countries. In addition, it is expected that the FWEBS framework can be widely applied by practitioners, scientists, and policymakers to develop and monitor policy and management plans in regional- and global-climate and sustainable-development agendas. The Upper Missouri River Basin For the purposes of this study, we consider the Upper Missouri River Basin to be upriver of confluence of the Missouri and Big Sioux Rivers in Sioux City, Iowa, excluding the Niobrara watershed. By any definition, the UMRB extends from the Crown-of-the-Continent headwaters in Montana and the Front Range of Wyoming to the Prairie Pothole region of North and South Dakota (figure 1). The UMRB as we define it is dominated by the states of Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming (and small parts of Canada, Iowa, Minnesota, and Nebraska). It represents some 30% of wheat production in the United States, 13% of soybean production, 11% of cattle production, and 9% of corn production, the last concentrated in the eastern Dakotas. Most of the region is rural, and only Alaska has a lower population density among US states than Wyoming, Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota. The largest city in the UMRB, Sioux Falls in South Dakota, has a population of approximately 175,000. The UMRB encompasses diverse land uses and land-use trajectories, climate attributes, and social and cultural geographies, as well as carbon capture and storage (CCS) potential, all of which must be considered when understanding the consequences and opportunities of BECCS. Land management Over the past decade, land-use practices in the agricultural and industrial sectors of the UMRB have responded to policy drivers, markets (especially the amenities market), commodity price cycles, climate variability, and energy production, among other factors. Regional elasticity to market pressures appears to be high, as has been illustrated by recent conversion rates between grassland and cropland (figures 4 and 5; Wright and Wimberly 2013). Agricultural land in the region has been exiting the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) at increasing rates (figure 5), with over 50% (17,000 square kilometers) of enrolled land exiting the program since 2007 because of declining federal enrollment caps, expiring CRP acreage, and economic incentives to plant, largely to corn and soybean (Morefield et al. 2016). Such conversions from extensive to intensive land uses are associated with negative consequences for soil C sequestration and biodiversity (Claassen 2011). Expansion of oil and gas production since the mid-2000s has also created new hybrid landscapes in which agricultural- and energy-production demands for water and land intersect in complex ways. Figure 4. View largeDownload slide Recent trends in land cover (2001–2011) and the percentage of total land-cover area (2011) in the Upper Missouri River Basin. The cover classes of similar type were aggregated to a common class (e.g., four urban classes were collapsed into a single class). The “other” cover class includes water, wetlands, and barren and are subject to the interannual variability of the exposed shoreline of reservoirs, as well as misclassification errors given the ephemerality of wetlands and/or irrigation practices. The data were obtained from the National Land Cover Database (Homer et al. 2007, Fry et al. 2012, Homer et al. 2015). Figure 4. View largeDownload slide Recent trends in land cover (2001–2011) and the percentage of total land-cover area (2011) in the Upper Missouri River Basin. The cover classes of similar type were aggregated to a common class (e.g., four urban classes were collapsed into a single class). The “other” cover class includes water, wetlands, and barren and are subject to the interannual variability of the exposed shoreline of reservoirs, as well as misclassification errors given the ephemerality of wetlands and/or irrigation practices. The data were obtained from the National Land Cover Database (Homer et al. 2007, Fry et al. 2012, Homer et al. 2015). Figure 5. View largeDownload slide Trends in conservation reserve program (CRP) areal extent in the four states that constitute the greatest area of the Upper Missouri River Basin, as we defined in figure 1. Figure 5. View largeDownload slide Trends in conservation reserve program (CRP) areal extent in the four states that constitute the greatest area of the Upper Missouri River Basin, as we defined in figure 1. Land management across the UMRB changes distinctly from west to east, and more than 20 Native American tribes manage tens of thousands of square kilometers within the UMRB (figure 1). The capacity of tribes to influence regional land- and water-use patterns is gaining momentum, as has been demonstrated, for example, by the active restoration of native species on tribal lands and worldwide sympathy for the Water Protectors movement (e.g., Elbein 2017). Together, these trends add complexity to the social dimensions of land management (Hendrickson et al. 2016) and their influence on the FWEBS nexus in a rapidly changing region with ongoing fossil-fuel extraction (Jackson et al. 2014) and associated CCS potential. Climate High decadal climate variability and warming temperature trends, especially during winter (figure 6), are superimposed on this matrix of changing land cover (Mehta et al. 2013), raising concerns about the resiliency of existing socioeconomic systems and food security faced with unprecedented climate change (Seifert and Lobell 2015, Cook et al. 2015). Interestingly, climatological summer (June, July, and August) temperatures may have cooled across parts of the UMRB from the 1970s until 2015 (figure 6), similar to the adjacent Canadian Prairie Provinces, for reasons thought to be due in part to changes in land management, including the reduction of summer fallow and the widespread adoption of no-till agriculture (Gameda et al. 2007, Vick et al. 2016), although 2017 brought an acute summer drought to much of the UMRB. General circulation models (GCMs) agree that annual average temperatures in the UMRB will continue to increase, using the bias-corrected ensemble Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 predictions as an upper limit to expected future temperature changes in figure 7, but it remains unclear how future changes in land management, including BECCS strategies, will affect water, energy, and GHG balances and thereby global and regional climate (Hallgren et al. 2013, DeLucia 2015). Figure 6. View largeDownload slide Decadal trends in summer (JJA) and winter (DJF) temperature from 1970 until 2015 in the region, including and surrounding the Upper Missouri River Basin (figure 1) from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) database (Harris et al. 2013). Figure 6. View largeDownload slide Decadal trends in summer (JJA) and winter (DJF) temperature from 1970 until 2015 in the region, including and surrounding the Upper Missouri River Basin (figure 1) from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) database (Harris et al. 2013). Figure 7. View largeDownload slide Future climate under full Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 ensemble bias corrected using CRU and downscaled to 0.5 degrees resolution, following Poulter and colleagues (2010). Figure 7. View largeDownload slide Future climate under full Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 ensemble bias corrected using CRU and downscaled to 0.5 degrees resolution, following Poulter and colleagues (2010). Carbon capture and storage Carbon capture and storage efforts can be internal or external to any region for global BECCS to take place (e.g., Muratori et al. 2016). The UMRB and surrounding regions have extensive carbon storage potential in geologic formations (Litynski et al. 2009), and a number of CCS test sites have been established by the Big Sky Carbon Sequestration Partnership in carbonate formations (e.g., Kevin Dome, Montana), in deep basalts in Washington State, in depleted oil reservoirs or for enhanced oil recovery, and with respect to enhanced coal-bed methane in the Powder River Basin of Montana and Wyoming within the UMRB, where it was found that additional incentives were required to make CCS economical. Initial storage resource estimations indicate large storage potential, but implementation of the Environmental Protection Agency's Underground Injection Control (UIC) Class VI regulations for CO2 injection defines underground drinking water sources by salinity only, not allowing exemptions available under other UIC well classes. This rule will reduce the geologic carbon storage potential in the UMRB owing to fresh water recharge of formations at basin edges. The UMRB also has the potential to store C in agricultural soils given the widespread adoption of no-till agriculture (West and Post 2002, Watts et al. 2011) and the ongoing decline of the practice of summer fallow, which represents a source of CO2 to the atmosphere (Merrill et al. 1999, Vick et al. 2016). In other words, select CCS efforts are possible within the UMRB and interact with the FWEBS nexus. Food, water, energy, biodiversity, and social systems in the Upper Missouri River Basin We discuss the FWEBS nexus as it applies to the UMRB sequentially, noting of course the interactions among food, water, energy, biodiversity, and social systems that we highlight in part in supplemental appendix S1. Food BECCS presents unique opportunities and trade-offs with the FWEBS nexus in the UMRB (figure 2). Agriculture in the western UMRB is concentrated on the production of feed crops and animal products, with limited inroads by bioenergy production at the present, mainly due to the high value placed on food and, to some degree, climatic conditions. Bioenergy production is currently more prominent in the eastern UMRB and is largely derived from standard agricultural row crops, such as corn-grain ethanol. Common crops in the western UMRB include winter and spring wheat, with a growing influence of “pulse” legumes, such as lentils and peas (Burgess et al. 2012). Corn and soybeans dominate the eastern UMRB and continue to increase in area (figure 4). Large swaths of the UMRB remain in native grasslands used for range-cattle production (Gascoigne et al. 2013). More diverse cropping systems, including pulse crops, are improving regional soil quality in the western UMRB (Miller et al. 2015), especially versus alternative management practices such as summer fallow, which is still common in parts of Montana but detrimental to soil C (Merrill et al. 1999, Vick et al. 2016). If managed appropriately, fallow replacement with pulses can grant economic benefits to producers, resulting in a win–win from both economic and climate perspectives (Bagley et al. 2015, Miller et al. 2015). Increases in the areal extent of pulse crops and oilseed bioenergy production have followed incentives from the US Farm Bill, but it remains to be seen whether enhanced bioenergy and pulse cropping is economically viable in a variable climate (Cutforth et al. 2007) and whether biofertilizers, such as N-fixing cyanobacteria, could improve nutrient management (Bhat et al. 2015). The consequences of BECCS strategies for regional biogeochemical cycles, particularly those of carbon and nitrogen, have not been studied to date. Water Water resource management faces multiple challenges across the UMRB, including intersectoral competition between energy production, agriculture, biodiversity, and utilities as well as interjurisdictional competition among states and between states and sovereign Native American nations. The consequences of water competition are exacerbated by institutional failures, such as overallocation of ground- and surface-water resources and major difficulties in adjudicating interjurisdictional and Tribal water rights. The response of water-use issues to a BECCS economy given current conflicts and with a changing climate requires additional research (Smith et al. 2015). Trends in water quality emphasize the scalar mismatch between land-use dynamics and existing governance frameworks (Allred et al. 2015). For example, the onset of new land and water uses associated with the rapid expansion of hydraulic fracturing activities in the region revealed the limits of existing regulatory frameworks and the limited capacity of state and local governments for oversight, monitoring, and enforcement. Environmental monitoring provides insight about aggregate land-use effects such as the management of resource extraction and energy production waste (Bauder et al. 1993, Stackpoole et al. 2014) and would need to be expanded to account for additional impacts of BECCS strategies on agricultural and industrial practices, as well as biodiversity and other FWEBS attributes. Energy The energy industry of the UMRB is dominated by conventional systems, namely fossil fuels and large-scale hydropower, despite substantial solar and wind resources (Elliot et al. 1992, Lopez et al. 2012). For example, the Colstrip power plant in eastern Montana is the second-largest coal-fired generating facility west of the Mississippi River and produces approximately 45% of Montana's total CO2 emissions. The energy industry is changing rapidly (e.g., two units of the Colstrip plant are slated for decommissioning), providing new opportunities such as retrofitting power generators to use alternative fuels or spare transmission capacity for development of new generation facilities (Cao and Caldeira 2010). The dramatic expansion of oil and gas extraction in the UMRB includes the mid-2000s coal-bed methane boom in the Powder River Basin and the 2004–2014 Bakken shale-oil boom. These activities have resulted in an approximately 700% increase in regional crude-oil production between 2000 and 2017 and nearly a 400% increase in natural-gas production, along with new pressures on already limited water resources (Jackson et al. 2014). Energy production could potentially be coupled with geological CCS (Eccles et al. 2012) or the removal of atmospheric CO2 by ecosystems (Zhu et al. 2014), with both approaches demonstrating high potential in the UMRB (West and Post 2002, Litynski et al. 2009). The feasibility of CCS, via public and political acceptance of such technology and its risks, is not clearly quantified. Using natural ecosystems to store carbon may also be problematic because of climatic constraints within the UMRB that limit net primary production. Potential reductions in carbon storage in carbon-rich grasslands converted to crops or woody vegetation must be taken into consideration when accounting for net atmospheric CO2 removal (Jackson et al. 2002, Gelfand et al. 2011). The existing matrix of coal- and natural-gas-based energy production and carbon sequestration from geologic and natural ecosystems in the UMRB provides a rich opportunity for interdisciplinary research (Humpenöder et al. 2014). Bioenergy expansion in the western UMRB would require substantial economic incentives because of strong and sustained markets for high-quality food production, particularly cereals and beef. Bioenergy production may also become more financially competitive under projected climate change or with advancements in new bioenergy (including biofuel) crop cultivars (Berdahl et al. 2005, Gesch et al. 2015). The expanded adoption of bioenergy ultimately rests on economic viability but also intersects with cultural values, including biodiversity protection, that likewise influence decision-making. Biodiversity It is estimated that 70% of the grasslands in the Great Plains have been converted to other land uses. Those that remain are crucial reservoirs of biodiversity (Samson et al. 2004). The UMRB has attracted public and private ecological restoration efforts at local to landscape scales, but recent reductions of Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) lands (figure 5), native grasslands, and wetlands (Johnston 2013, Wright and Wimberly 2013) are key examples of how quickly land management can respond to economic drivers and associated changes in policy. Intensively managed agricultural landscapes can provide habitat, but conversion of CRP, native grasslands, and wetlands to agriculture—especially row-crop production (Brown et al. 2005)—can have strong negative impacts on biodiversity (Best et al. 1995, Lehtinen et al. 1999). These impacts extend beyond direct habitat loss (see supplemental appendix S1); for example, water quality and contaminant exposure pose a range of serious risks to amphibians, from direct mortality (Relyea 2005) to endocrine disruption (Hayes et al. 2002), emphasizing the need to study connections within the FWEBS nexus. Social systems It is expected that BECCS expansion in the UMRB will influence social systems via impacts on farm economics and overall livelihoods, competition for land and labor, working conditions and renumeration for workers, governmental policies, cultural ecosystem services, and food security. Some social systems, such as regional economics, are readily quantifiable and can be directly compared. Other social systems, such as values and traditions, are often less meaningful when expressed in monetary terms (Daily et al. 2009), but they have important social value (Bagstad et al. 2015) and play an important role in decision-making (Wainger et al. 2010). For example, Native American and rural communities in Montana rely on hunting and harvesting of wild edible plants for cultural identity, food sovereignty, family ties to previous generation, and health benefits (Byker Shanks et al. 2015). Considering diverse stakeholder perspectives, attitudes, and decisions in response to the potential expansion of BECCS in the UMRB will allow us to elucidate barriers and opportunities for BECCS implementation. For example, meat production, including rangeland and cropland for growing animal feed, is the largest land use in the eastern UMRB, and much of this land could be used for bioenergy production (Langholtz et al. 2016), but there are strongly held values toward animal agriculture and meat consumption that make such land-use changes more difficult (Foley et al. 2011, Turner et al. 2014, Langholtz et al. 2016). Previous research suggests that bioenergy expansion can compete for land and labor resources and result in increased food prices that ultimately lead to higher food insecurity, particularly for low-income and landless populations as affordable food becomes less accessible (Müller et al. 2008, Ewing and Msangi 2009). On the other hand, higher food prices can stimulate the agricultural sector and create new opportunities for rural communities (Müller et al. 2008), including increased purchasing power and enhanced resilience to market instability (Ewing and Msangi 2009). In summary, all elements of the FWEBS nexus interact with BECCS strategies in the UMRB and elsewhere, and understanding the complex trade-offs, as well as opportunities, of multiple BECCS approaches across different spatial and temporal scales requires careful attention to each attribute as well as their interactions. Developing regional bioenergy with carbon capture and storage scenarios for assessing ecological and socioeconomic interactions To examine the critical trade-offs and opportunities of alternative BECCS strategies within the FWEBS nexus at regional scales such as the UMRB, researchers must define a set of plausible scenarios for achieving negative CO2 emissions. The definition of scenarios has itself become a complex area of study, with varying definitions of what constitutes a scenario across different disciplines and applications (van Vuuren et al. 2012). The general strategy for developing scenarios for global-change assessment typically involves using qualitative descriptions, such as narratives or storylines, that characterize a broad array of possible futures and then developing increasingly quantitative assumptions consistent with the broad narratives to inform specific modeling exercises (Moss et al. 2010, Rounsevell and Metzger 2010). Increasingly, interdisciplinary processes are being used to develop scenarios with more robust qualitative and quantitative assumptions and better recognition of feedback processes in human and ecological systems, such as the latest SSPs for assessing climate mitigation and adaptation (O’Neill et al. 2017). Despite substantial efforts in scenario development, “downscaling” broad narratives to regional scales remains a challenge, because broad narratives do not easily align with local contexts (Kriegler et al. 2012). Rather than propose specific quantitative scenarios here, we discuss general narratives for developing scenarios that can inform a regional analysis of BECCS impacts on FWEBS in the UMRB. Achieving net negative CO2 emissions in the UMRB could conceivably be achieved by implementing a wide range of mitigation and adaptation measures, although as we have noted, these may conflict with other management goals (figure 2). We propose, as a starting point, two general narratives that capture the extremes of a continuum of BECCS-related strategies. At one extreme, an aggressive BECCS approach would emphasize technological and land-intensive approaches, including geological CCS, producing bioenergy crops for electricity and fuel (to displace fossil sources) and increasing electricity production from renewable sources as part of a broader energy transition (figure 2). At the other extreme, a conservation BECCS approach would emphasize more land-extensive approaches, including biological and geological carbon sequestration through soil-management practices and CCS (Chabbi et al. 2017), afforestation and avoided land conversion, and the production of perennial cellulosic bioenergy crops. Whereas the conservation BECCS approach may miss some opportunities to sequester C, such a strategy may align BECCS with other ecosystem services and cultural values, including biodiversity conservation. These general narratives provide a framework for assessing FWEBS trade-offs and opportunities along a continuum of quantitative scenarios between aggressive and conservation, all of which can be compared to business-as-usual or status-quo alternatives. The general narratives also fit within, and must ultimately be consistent with, existing broader global-change storylines, such as the latest RCP and SSP storylines (O’Neill et al. 2017). Crucial to refining quantitative BECCS scenarios for analyzing potential future conditions in the UMRB is an appreciation for local context—local socioeconomic conditions, technologies, and institutions—which ultimately determines the feasibility and impacts of alternative BECCS strategies. Incorporating such local context will ultimately require an iterative process, including interdisciplinary scientists and local stakeholder experts, whereby scenario assumptions are tested and refined both through modeling exercises and stakeholder feedback (Sleeter et al. 2012). The interactions between local attributes of the FWEBS nexus and human response will determine the extent to which aggressive, conservation, or other BECCS strategies are technically feasible, socially acceptable, and economically sustainable. By working with local experts and stakeholders in an iterative process, researchers can define a limited set of alternative quantitative scenarios that can achieve net negative CO2 emissions (if technically possible) and, given those scenarios, determine the key FWEBS trade-offs needed to guide regional-scale policymaking. Such an effort must also point to synergistic interactions that may provide opportunities to improve multiple factors in the FWEBS nexus (figure 2). How will different elements of the FWEBS nexus change as BECCS development becomes more prominent, and, as has been demonstrated by the case study of biodiversity (appendix S1), could “conservation” BECCS scenarios be developed that satisfy multiple societal objectives (figure 2)? Alternatively, are aggressive BECCS strategies necessary to mitigate climate warming such that hard compromises will have to be made regarding FWEBS and other ecosystem and Earth-system services (Boysen et al. 2017, Rockström et al. 2017)? We hypothesize that business-as-usual strategies provide insufficient atmospheric C removal and aggressive BECCS strategies may present too many conflicts with the FWEBS nexus to become adopted. Thus, a conservation BECCS strategy that relies on a balanced array of BECCS activities (from geological and biological CSS to cellulosic ethanol and non-BECCS renewable energy) designed to minimize socioeconomic trade-offs while simultaneously benefitting biodiversity conservation may be the only realistic approach to serve multiple societal objectives in the UMRB and likely other global regions. Testing such a hypothesis requires a highly multidisciplinary approach that combines surveys and interviews of perceptions to BECCS and data-informed models of economic, biogeochemical, hydrological, biodiversity, and climate systems that capture the feedback loops and interrelationships between system drivers and outcomes (figure 3). New regulatory and incentivization approaches to guide multiple actors, including industry, governments, and individuals, toward behaviors that help us become positive actors in the climate system are ultimately needed. To do so, we must design BECCS strategies and contrast them against alternate strategies to find the correct balance among atmospheric C removal, likelihood of adoption, and ecological and socioeconomic sustainability. Acknowledgments This work was supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF) under the EPSCoR Track II cooperative agreement no. OIA-1632810 and the Graduate School at Montana State University. PCS acknowledges support from NSF no. DEB-1552976 and the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture Hatch project no. 228396. We would like to thank Dusan Mirkovic and Brianna Olson for their graphic-design assistance and Brad Bauer, Jacob Kerby, and Suzi Taylor for their feedback on the manuscript. Supplemental material Supplementary data are available at BIOSCI online. References cited Albanito F, Beringer T, Corstanje R, Poulter B, Stephenson A, Zawadzka J, Smith P. 2015. Carbon implications of converting cropland to bioenergy crops or forest for climate mitigation: A global assessment. GCB Bioenergy 8: 81– 95. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Allred BW, Kolby Smith W, Twidwell D, Haggerty JH, Running SW, Naugle DE, Fuhlendorf SD. 2015. Ecosystem services lost to oil and gas in North America. Science 348: 401– 402. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS PubMed Bagley JE, Miller J, Bernacchi CJ. 2015. Biophysical impacts of climate-smart agriculture in the Midwest United States. Plant, Cell, and Environment 38: 1913– 1930. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Bagstad KJ, Reed JM, Semmens DJ, Sherrouse BC, Troy A. 2015. Linking biophysical models and public preferences for ecosystem service assessments: A case study for the southern Rocky Mountains. Regional Environmental Change 16: 2005– 2018. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Barros VR et al. , eds. 2014. Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change . Cambridge University Press. Bauder JW, Sinclair KN, Lund RE. 1993. Physiographic and land use characteristics associated with nitrate–nitrogen in Montana groundwater. Journal of Environmental Quality 22: 255– 262. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Baum SD. 2014. The great downside dilemma for risky emerging technologies. Physica Scripta 89 (art. 128004). Berdahl JD, Frank AB, Krupinsky JM, Carr PM, Hanson JD, Johnson HA. 2005. Biomass yield, phenology, and survival of diverse switchgrass cultivars and experimental strains in western North Dakota. Agronomy Journal 97: 549– 555. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Best LB, Freemark KE, Dinsmore JJ, Camp M. 1995. A review and synthesis of habitat use by breeding birds in agricultural landscapes of Iowa. American Midland Naturalist 134: 1– 29. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Bhat TA, Ahmad D, Ganai A, Khan OA. 2015. Nitrogen fixing biofertilizers; mechanism and growth promotion: A review. Journal of Pure Applied Microbiology 9: 1675– 1690. Biggs EM et al. 2015. Sustainable development and the water–energy–food nexus: A perspective on livelihoods. Environmental Science and Policy 54: 389– 397. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Bonsch M et al. 2014. Trade-offs between land and water requirements for large-scale bioenergy production. Global Change Biology: Bioenergy 8: 11– 24. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Boysen LR, Lucht W, Gerten D. 2017. The limits to global-warming mitigation by terrestrial carbon removal. Earth's Future 5: 463– 474. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Brown DG, Johnson KM, Loveland TR, Theobald DM. 2005. Rural land-use trends in the conterminous United States, 1950–2000. Ecological Applications 15: 1851– 1863. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Burgess MH, Miller PR, Jones CA. 2012. Pulse crops improve energy intensity and productivity of cereal production in Montana, USA. Journal of Sustainable Agriculture 36: 699– 718. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Byker Shanks C, Smith T, Ahmed S, Hunts H. 2015. Assessing foods offered in the Food Distribution Program on Indian Reservations (FDPIR) using the Healthy Eating Index 2010. Public Health Nutrition 19: 1315– 1326. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS PubMed Cao L, Caldeira K. 2010. Atmospheric carbon dioxide removal: Long-term consequences and commitment. Environmental Research Letters 5 ( art. 024011). Chabbi A et al. 2017. Aligning agriculture and climate policy. Nature Climate Change 7: 307– 309. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Claassen RL, Carriazo F, Cooper JC, Hellerstein D, Ueda K. 2011. Grassland to Cropland Conversion in the Northern Plains: The Role of Crop Insurance, Commodity, and Disaster Programs. US Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service. Collins WD et al. 2015. The integrated Earth System Model (iESM): Formulation and functionality. Geoscientific Model Development Discussions 8: 381– 427. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Cook BI, Ault TR, Smerdon JE. 2015. Unprecedented 21st century drought risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains. Science Advances 1 ( art. e1400082). Cutforth HW, McGinn SM, McPhee KE, Miller PR. 2007. Adaptation of pulse crops to the changing climate of the Northern Great Plains. Agronomy Journal 99: 1684– 1699. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Daily GC, Polasky S, Goldstein J, Kareiva PM, Mooney HA, Pejchar L, Ricketts TH, Salzman J, Shallenberger R. 2009. Ecosystem services in decision making: Time to deliver. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 7: 21– 28. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS DeLucia EH. 2015. How biofuels can cool our climate and strengthen our ecosystems. Eos 96: 14– 19. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Eccles JK, Pratson L, Newell RG, Jackson RB. 2012. The impact of geologic variability on capacity and cost estimates for storing CO2 in deep-saline aquifers. Energy Economics 34: 1569– 1579. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Elbein S. 2017. These are the defiant “Water Protectors” of Standing Rock. National Geographic . ( 28 November 2017; http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/01/tribes-standing-rock-dakota-access-pipeline-advancement) Elliot DL, Holladay CG, Barchet WR, Foote HP, Sandusky WF. 1992. Wind Energy Resource Atlas of the United States. Solar Technical Information Program, Solar Energy Research Institute. National Technical Information Service Publication no. NTIS-PR-360. Ewing M, Msangi S. 2009. Biofuels production in developing countries: Assessing trade-offs in welfare and food security. Environmental Science Policy 12: 520– 528. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Foley JA et al. 2005. Global consequences of land use. Science 309: 570– 574. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS PubMed Foley JA et al. 2011. Solutions for a cultivated planet. Nature 478: 337– 342. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS PubMed Fry J, Xian GZ, Jin S, Dewitz J, Homer CG, Yang L, Barnes CA, Herold ND, Wickham JD. 2012. Completion of the 2006 National Land Cover Database for the conterminous United States. Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing 77: 858– 864. Fuss S et al. 2014. Betting on negative emissions. Nature Climate Change 4: 850– 853. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Fuss S, Reuter WH, Szolgayová J, Obersteiner M. 2013. Optimal mitigation strategies with negative emission technologies and carbon sinks under uncertainty. Climate Change 118: 73– 87. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Galaz V. 2012. Geo-engineering, governance, and social–ecological systems: Critical issues and joint research needs. Ecology and Society 17 (art. 24). doi:10.5751/es-04677-170124 Gameda S, Qian B, Campbell CA, Desjardins RL. 2007. Climatic trends associated with summerfallow in the Canadian Prairies. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 142: 170– 185. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Gascoigne WR, Hoag DLK, Johnson RR, Koontz LM, Thomas CC. 2013. Land-Use Change, Economics, and Rural Well-Being in the Prairie Pothole Region of the United States. US Geological Survey. Fact Sheet no. 2013–3046. Gelfand I, Zenone T, Jasrotia P, Chen J, Hamilton SK, Robertson GP. 2011. Carbon debt of Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) grasslands converted to bioenergy production. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 108: 13864– 13869. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Gesch RW et al. 2015. Comparison of several Brassica species in the north central US for potential jet fuel feedstock. Industrial Crops and Products 75: 2– 7. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Hallgren W, Schlosser CA, Monier E, Kicklighter D, Sokolov A, Melillo J. 2013. Climate impacts of a large-scale biofuels expansion. Geophysical Research Letters 40: 1624– 1630. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Harris I, Jones PD, Osborn TJ, Lister DH. 2013. Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations: The CRU TS3.10 Dataset. International Journal of Climatology 34: 623– 642. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Hayes T, Haston K, Tsui M, Hoang A, Haeffele C, Vonk A. 2002. Herbicides: Feminization of male frogs in the wild. Nature 419: 895– 896. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS PubMed Hendrickson JR, Elk LB, Faller T. 2016. Development of the renewal on the Standing Rock Sioux Reservation Project. Rangelands 38: 1– 2. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Homer CG, Dewitz JA, Fry J. 2007. Completion of the 2001 National Land Cover Database for the conterminous United States. Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing 73: 337– 341. Homer CG, Dewitz JA, Yang L, Jin S, Danielson P, Xian G, Coulston J, Herold N, Wickham J, Megown K. 2015. Completion of the 2011 National Land Cover Database for the conterminous United States—Representing a decade of land cover change information. Photogrammetric Engingeering and Remote Sensing 81: 345– 354. Hulme M. 2016. 1.5°C and climate research after the Paris Agreement. Nature Climate Change 6: 222– 224. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Humpenöder F, Popp A, Dietrich JP, Klein D, Lotze-Campen H, Bonsch M, Bodirsky BL, Weindl I, Stevanovic M, Müller C. 2014. Investigating afforestation and bioenergy CCS as climate change mitigation strategies. Environmental Research Letters 9 ( art. 064029). [IPCC] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2014. Synthesis report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II, and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC. Jackson RB, Banner JL, Jobbágy EG, Pockman WT, Wall DH. 2002. Ecosystem carbon loss with woody plant invasion of grasslands. Nature 418: 623– 626. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS PubMed Jackson RB, Vengosh A, Carey JW, Davies RJ, Darrah TH, O’Sullivan F, Pétron G. 2014. The environmental costs and benefits of fracking. Annual Review of Environment and Resources 39: 327– 362. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Johnston CA. 2013. Wetland losses due to row crop expansion in the Dakota Prairie Pothole Region. Wetlands 33: 175– 182. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Jones AD et al. 2013. Greenhouse gas policy influences climate via direct effects of land-use change. Journal of Climate 26: 3657– 3670. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Kriegler E, O’Neill BC, Hallegatte S, Kram T, Lempert RJ, Moss RH, Wilbanks T. 2012. The need for and use of socio-economic scenarios for climate change analysis: A new approach based on shared socio-economic pathways. Global Environmental Change 22: 807– 822. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Kriegler E, Edenhofer O, Reuster L, Luderer G, Klein D. 2013. Is atmospheric carbon dioxide removal a game changer for climate change mitigation? Climate Change 118: 45– 57. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Langholtz MH, Stokes BJ, Eaton LM. 2016. Billion-Ton Report: Advancing Domestic Resources for a Thriving Bioeconomy. US Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. Lehtinen RM, Galatowitsch SM, Tester JR. 1999. Consequences of habitat loss and fragmentation for wetland amphibian assemblages. Wetlands 19: 1– 12. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Le Quéré C et al. 2013. The global carbon budget 1959–2011. Earth System Science Data 5: 165– 185. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Litynski JT, Plasynski S, Spangler L, Finley R, Steadman E, Ball D, Nemeth KJ, McPherson B, Myer L. 2009. The United States Department of Energy's Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnerships program: Overview. Energy Procedia 1: 3959– 3967. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Lopez A, Roberts B, Heimiller D, Blair N, Porro G. 2012. US Renewable Energy Technical Potentials: A GIS-Based Analysis. US Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Technical Report no. NREL/TP-6A20-51946. Lotze-Campen H et al. 2013. Impacts of increased bioenergy demand on global food markets: An AgMIP economic model intercomparison. Agricultural Economics 45: 103– 116. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Mehta VM, Knutson CL, Rosenberg NJ, Olsen JR, Wall NA, Bernadt TK, Hayes MJ. 2013. Decadal climate information needs of stakeholders for decision support in water and agriculture production sectors: A case study in the Missouri River Basin. Weather, Climate, and Society 5: 27– 42. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Meinshausen M, Meinshausen N, Hare W, Raper SCB, Frieler K, Knutti R, Frame DJ, Allen MR. 2009. Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2°C. Nature 458: 1158– 1162. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS PubMed Merrill SD, Black AL, Fryrear DW, Saleh A, Zobeck TM, Halvorson AD, Tanaka DL. 1999. Soil wind erosion hazard of spring wheat–fallow as affected by long-term climate and tillage. Soil Science Society of America Journal 63: 1768– 1777. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Miller PR, Bekkerman A, Jones CA, Burgess MH, Holmes JA, Engel RE. 2015. Pea in rotation with wheat reduced uncertainty of cconomic returns in Southwest Montana. Agronomy Journal 107: 541– 550. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Morefield PE, LeDuc SD, Clark CM, Iovanna R. 2016. Grasslands, wetlands, and agriculture: The fate of land expiring from the Conservation Reserve Program in the Midwestern United States. Environmental Research Letters 11 ( art. 094005). Moss RH et al. 2010. The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 463: 747– 756. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS PubMed Müller A, Schmidhuber J, Hoogeveen J, Steduto P. 2008. Some insights in the effect of growing bio-energy demand on global food security and natural resources. Water Policy 10: 83– 94. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Muratori M, Calvin K, Wise M, Kyle P, Edmonds J. 2016. Global economic consequences of deploying bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). Environmental Research Letters 11 ( art. 095004). O’Neill BC et al. 2017. The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century. Global Environmental Change 42: 169– 180. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Popp A et al. 2014. Land-use protection for climate change mitigation. Nature Climate Change 4: 1095– 1098. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Poulter B, Aragão L, Heyder U, Gumpenberger M, Heinke J, Langerwisch F, Rammig A, Thonicke K, Cramer W. 2010. Net biome production of the Amazon Basin in the 21st century. Global Change Biology 16: 2062– 2075. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Powell TWR, Lenton TM. 2013. Scenarios for future biodiversity loss due to multiple drivers reveal conflict between mitigating climate change and preserving biodiversity. Environmental Research Letters 8 ( art. 025024). Relyea RA. 2005. The lethal impacts of Roundup and predatory stress on six species of North American tadpoles. Archives of Environmental Contamination and Toxicology 48: 351– 357. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS PubMed Rhodes JS, Keith DW. 2008. Biomass with capture: Negative emissions within social and environmental constraints: An editorial comment. Climate Change 87: 321– 328. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Riahi K et al. 2017. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview. Global Environmental Change 42: 153– 168. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Rockström J, Gaffney O, Rogelj J, Meinshausen M, Nakicenovic N, Schellnhuber HJ. 2017. A roadmap for rapid decarbonization. Science 355: 1269– 1271. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS PubMed Rogelj J, den Elzen M, Höhne N, Fransen T, Fekete H, Winkler H, Schaeffer R, Sha F, Riahi K, Meinshausen M. 2016. Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2°C. Nature 534: 631– 639. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS PubMed Rounsevell MDA, Metzger MJ. 2010. Developing qualitative scenario storylines for environmental change assessment. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 1: 606– 619. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Samson FB, Knopf FL, Ostlie WR. 2004. Great Plains ecosystems: Past, present, and future. Wildlife Society Bulletin 32: 6– 15. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Scanlon BR, Ruddell BL, Reed PM, Hook RI, Zheng C, Tidwell VC, Siebert S. 2017. The food–energy–water nexus: Transforming science for society. Water Resources Research 53: 3550– 3556. doi:10.1002/2017WR020889. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Schellnhuber HJ. 1999. “Earth system” analysis and the second Copernican revolution. Nature 402: C19– C23. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Scholes RJ. 2016. Climate change and ecosystem services. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 7: 537– 550. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Seifert CA, Lobell DB. 2015. Response of double cropping suitability to climate change in the United States. Environmental Research Letters 10 ( art. 024002). Sleeter BM et al. 2012. Scenarios of land use and land cover change in the conterminous United States: Utilizing the special report on emission scenarios at ecoregional scales. Global Environmental Change 22: 896– 914. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Smith P et al. 2015. Biophysical and economic limits to negative CO2 emissions. Nature Climate Change 6: 42– 50. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Stackpoole SM, Stets EG, Striegl RG. 2014. The impact of climate and reservoirs on longitudinal riverine carbon fluxes from two major watersheds in the Central and Intermontane West. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 119: 848– 863. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Tavoni M et al. 2014. Post-2020 climate agreements in the major economies assessed in the light of global models. Nature Climate Change 5: 119– 126. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Tian H et al. 2016. The terrestrial biosphere as a net source of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Nature 531: 225– 228. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS PubMed Tilman D, Clark M. 2014. Global diets link environmental sustainability and human health. Nature 515: 518– 522. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS PubMed Turner BL, Wuellner M, Nichols T, Gates R. 2014. Dueling land ethics: Uncovering agricultural stakeholder mental models to better understand recent land use conversion. Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Ethics 27: 831– 856. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Usgaard RE, Naugle DE, Osborn RG, Higgins KF. 1997. Effects of wind turbines on nesting raptors at Buffalo Ridge in southwestern Minnesota. Proceedings of the South Dakota Academy of Science 76: 113– 117. Van Vuuren DP, Deetman S, van Vliet J, van den Berg M, van Ruijven BJ, Koelbl B. 2013. The role of negative CO2 emissions for reaching 2°C: Insights from integrated assessment modelling. Climate Change 118: 15– 27. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Van Vuuren DP, Kok MTJ, Girod B, Lucas PL, de Vries B. 2012. Scenarios in global environmental assessments: Key characteristics and lessons for future use. Global Environmental Change 22: 884– 895. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Vick ESK, Stoy PC, Tang ACI, Gerken T. 2016. The surface–atmosphere exchange of carbon dioxide, water, and sensible heat across a dryland wheat–fallow rotation. Agriculture, Ecosystems, and Environment 232: 129– 140. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Wainger LA, King DM, Mack RN, Price EW, Maslin T. 2010. Can the concept of ecosystem services be practically applied to improve natural resource management decisions? Ecological Economics 69: 978– 987. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Watts J, Lawrence R, Miller PR. 2011. An analysis of cropland carbon sequestration estimates for north central Montana. Climate Change 108: 301– 331. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS West TO, Post WM. 2002. Soil organic carbon sequestration rates by tillage and crop rotation. Soil Science Society of America Journal 66: 1930– 1946. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Wright CK, Wimberly MC. 2013. Recent land use change in the Western Corn Belt threatens grasslands and wetlands. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 110: 4134– 4139. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS Zhu Z, Reed BC, eds. 2014. Baseline and Projected Future Carbon Storage and Greenhouse-Gas Fluxes in Ecosystems of the Eastern United States. US Geological Survey. Professional Paper no. 1804. Zilberman D. 2015. IPCC AR5 overlooked the potential of unleashing agricultural biotechnology to combat climate change and poverty. Global Change Biology 21: 501– 503. Google Scholar CrossRef Search ADS PubMed © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Institute of Biological Sciences. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: email@example.com
BioScience – Oxford University Press
Published: Feb 1, 2018
It’s your single place to instantly
discover and read the research
that matters to you.
Enjoy affordable access to
over 18 million articles from more than
15,000 peer-reviewed journals.
All for just $49/month
Query the DeepDyve database, plus search all of PubMed and Google Scholar seamlessly
Save any article or search result from DeepDyve, PubMed, and Google Scholar... all in one place.
Get unlimited, online access to over 18 million full-text articles from more than 15,000 scientific journals.
Read from thousands of the leading scholarly journals from SpringerNature, Elsevier, Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford University Press and more.
All the latest content is available, no embargo periods.
“Hi guys, I cannot tell you how much I love this resource. Incredible. I really believe you've hit the nail on the head with this site in regards to solving the research-purchase issue.”Daniel C.
“Whoa! It’s like Spotify but for academic articles.”@Phil_Robichaud
“I must say, @deepdyve is a fabulous solution to the independent researcher's problem of #access to #information.”@deepthiw
“My last article couldn't be possible without the platform @deepdyve that makes journal papers cheaper.”@JoseServera