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MONTHLY ESTIMATES OF THE CHILD POPULATION “SUSCEPTIBLE’ TO MEASLES, 1900–1931, BALTIMORE, MD*

MONTHLY ESTIMATES OF THE CHILD POPULATION “SUSCEPTIBLE’ TO MEASLES, 1900–1931, BALTIMORE, MD* MONTHLY ESTIMATES OP THE CHILD POPULATION "SUSCEPTIBLE " TO MEASLES, 1900-1931, BALTIMORE, MD.* B Y A. W. HEDRICH. (Received for publication September 27, 1932.) Introductory. Although epidemics have troubled mankind since the dawn of recorded history, our information as to the factors underlying epi- demic movements is still very incomplete, and for the most part rather crude and unquantitative. Thus, there has been, and still exists, a lively difference of opinion, as to the role played in epidemic phe- nomena, by the concentration of persons not previously attacked. Hamer (1) felt that the number of persons without measles history practically determined (in conjunction with the number of cases present) the number of new cases to be expected in a community in the immediate future. On the basis of this theory, he presented esti- mates, in 1906, of the mean numbers of susceptibles before and after epidemics in London. Brownlee (2), on the other hand, in 1909, gave reasons for believ- ing that susceptibility played only a minor role in shaping the epi- demic cycle, and he pointed to variations in virulence of the infective * Papers from the Department of Biostatistics, School of Hygiene and Public Health, The Johns http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png American Journal of Epidemiology Oxford University Press

MONTHLY ESTIMATES OF THE CHILD POPULATION “SUSCEPTIBLE’ TO MEASLES, 1900–1931, BALTIMORE, MD*

HEDRICH, A. W.
American Journal of Epidemiology , Volume 17 (3) – May 1, 1933
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Publisher
Oxford University Press
Copyright
© Published by Oxford University Press.
ISSN
0002-9262
eISSN
1476-6256
DOI
10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a117929
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Abstract

MONTHLY ESTIMATES OP THE CHILD POPULATION "SUSCEPTIBLE " TO MEASLES, 1900-1931, BALTIMORE, MD.* B Y A. W. HEDRICH. (Received for publication September 27, 1932.) Introductory. Although epidemics have troubled mankind since the dawn of recorded history, our information as to the factors underlying epi- demic movements is still very incomplete, and for the most part rather crude and unquantitative. Thus, there has been, and still exists, a lively difference of opinion, as to the role played in epidemic phe- nomena, by the concentration of persons not previously attacked. Hamer (1) felt that the number of persons without measles history practically determined (in conjunction with the number of cases present) the number of new cases to be expected in a community in the immediate future. On the basis of this theory, he presented esti- mates, in 1906, of the mean numbers of susceptibles before and after epidemics in London. Brownlee (2), on the other hand, in 1909, gave reasons for believ- ing that susceptibility played only a minor role in shaping the epi- demic cycle, and he pointed to variations in virulence of the infective * Papers from the Department of Biostatistics, School of Hygiene and Public Health, The Johns

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American Journal of Epidemiology – Oxford University Press

Published: May 1, 1933

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