Erratum: Prospective and retrospective evaluation of five-year earthquake forecast models for California

Erratum: Prospective and retrospective evaluation of five-year earthquake forecast models for... Geophysical Journal International Geophys. J. Int. (2018) 212, 1314–1314 doi: 10.1093/gji/ggx496 Erratum: Prospective and retrospective evaluation of five-year earthquake forecast models for California 1 2,3 1,4 by Anne Strader, Max Schneider and Danijel Schorlemmer Section 2.6: Seismic Hazard and Stress Field, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, D-14467 Potsdam, Germany. E-mail: strader@gfz-potsdam.de Institute of Mathematics, University of Potsdam, D-14476 Potsdam, Germany Department of Statistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195,USA Department of Earth Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089-0740,USA Erratum of the paper ‘Prospective and retrospective evaluation of five-year earthquake forecast models for California’, by Anne Strader, Max Schneider and Danijel Schorlemmer, published in Geophys. J. Int. (2017) 211(1), 239–251, doi:10.1093/gji/ggx268. In the Result section, the Fig. 3 is not displaying properly due to technical reasons. The error has now been corrected online. The publisher apologise for this error. Figure 3. S-test results for the USGS and RELM forecasts. The differences between the simulated log-likelihoods and the observed log-likelihood are labelled on the horizontal axes, with scaling adjustments for the 40YEAR.RETRO experiment. The horizontal lines represent the confidence intervals, within the 0.05 significance level, for each forecast and experiment. If this range contains a log-likelihood difference of zero, the forecasted log-likelihoods are consistent with the observed, and the forecast passes the S-test (denoted by thin lines). If the minimum difference within this range does not contain zero, the forecast fails the S-test for that particular experiment, denoted by thick lines. Colours distinguish between experiments (see Table 2 for explanation of experiment durations). Due to anomalously large likelihood differences, S-test results for WIEMER-SCHORLEMMER.ALM during the 10YEAR.RETRO and 40YEAR.RETRO experiments are not displayed. The range of log-likelihoods for the HOLLIDAY-ET-AL.PI forecast is lower than for the other forecasts due to relatively homogeneous forecasted seismicity rates and use of a small fraction of the RELM testing region. 1314 The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Royal Astronomical Society. Downloaded from https://academic.oup.com/gji/article-abstract/212/2/1314/4732654 by Ed 'DeepDyve' Gillespie user on 16 March 2018 http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Geophysical Journal International Oxford University Press

Erratum: Prospective and retrospective evaluation of five-year earthquake forecast models for California

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Publisher
The Royal Astronomical Society
Copyright
© The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Royal Astronomical Society.
ISSN
0956-540X
eISSN
1365-246X
D.O.I.
10.1093/gji/ggx496
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Geophysical Journal International Geophys. J. Int. (2018) 212, 1314–1314 doi: 10.1093/gji/ggx496 Erratum: Prospective and retrospective evaluation of five-year earthquake forecast models for California 1 2,3 1,4 by Anne Strader, Max Schneider and Danijel Schorlemmer Section 2.6: Seismic Hazard and Stress Field, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, D-14467 Potsdam, Germany. E-mail: strader@gfz-potsdam.de Institute of Mathematics, University of Potsdam, D-14476 Potsdam, Germany Department of Statistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195,USA Department of Earth Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089-0740,USA Erratum of the paper ‘Prospective and retrospective evaluation of five-year earthquake forecast models for California’, by Anne Strader, Max Schneider and Danijel Schorlemmer, published in Geophys. J. Int. (2017) 211(1), 239–251, doi:10.1093/gji/ggx268. In the Result section, the Fig. 3 is not displaying properly due to technical reasons. The error has now been corrected online. The publisher apologise for this error. Figure 3. S-test results for the USGS and RELM forecasts. The differences between the simulated log-likelihoods and the observed log-likelihood are labelled on the horizontal axes, with scaling adjustments for the 40YEAR.RETRO experiment. The horizontal lines represent the confidence intervals, within the 0.05 significance level, for each forecast and experiment. If this range contains a log-likelihood difference of zero, the forecasted log-likelihoods are consistent with the observed, and the forecast passes the S-test (denoted by thin lines). If the minimum difference within this range does not contain zero, the forecast fails the S-test for that particular experiment, denoted by thick lines. Colours distinguish between experiments (see Table 2 for explanation of experiment durations). Due to anomalously large likelihood differences, S-test results for WIEMER-SCHORLEMMER.ALM during the 10YEAR.RETRO and 40YEAR.RETRO experiments are not displayed. The range of log-likelihoods for the HOLLIDAY-ET-AL.PI forecast is lower than for the other forecasts due to relatively homogeneous forecasted seismicity rates and use of a small fraction of the RELM testing region. 1314 The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Royal Astronomical Society. Downloaded from https://academic.oup.com/gji/article-abstract/212/2/1314/4732654 by Ed 'DeepDyve' Gillespie user on 16 March 2018

Journal

Geophysical Journal InternationalOxford University Press

Published: Feb 1, 2018

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