What Next for the Indonesian Navy?: Challenges and Prospects for Attaining the Minimum Essential Force by 2024

What Next for the Indonesian Navy?: Challenges and Prospects for Attaining the Minimum Essential... Abstract: A greenwater navy ought to be effective within its country’s immediate waters, especially the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) while also possessing a limited extra-regional force projection ability. Based on this definition, the Indonesian Navy does not adequately perform this dual role. While President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s Global Maritime Fulcrum (GMF) vision gives the navy’s long-term greenwater ambitions greater traction, it still faces capacity-building constraints thus prompting it to adopt the Minimum Essential Force (MEF) blueprint as an interim measure. This article examines the Indonesian Navy’s prospects of attaining its MEF targets by 2024 as part of its long-term greenwater naval ambitions commensurate with Indonesia’s “maritime mediumness”. To identify these capacity gaps, this article models the navy’s MEF projections based on three scenarios: Standard, Optimistic and Austere. Results show that under an Austere Scenario, the navy cannot possibly achieve its MEF targets across all categories by 2024. The Optimistic and Standard Scenarios are more realistic. Gaps in certain categories, primarily the PKR-10514 light frigate programme which forms a key facet of the navy’s greenwater aspirations, are identified. But the risks of project overruns and budget challenges may militate against the modest projections derived in this study. Therefore, this article proposes a recalibration of the MEF specifications, by reducing the number of high-capability PKR-10514s optimized for warfighting in exchange for a larger force of low-capability “PKR-minus” optimized for EEZ duties. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Contemporary Southeast Asia: A Journal of International and Strategic Affairs Institute of Southeast Asian Studies

What Next for the Indonesian Navy?: Challenges and Prospects for Attaining the Minimum Essential Force by 2024

What Next for the Indonesian Navy?: Challenges and Prospects for Attaining the Minimum Essential Force by 2024


Contemporary Southeast Asia Vol. 37, No. 3 (2015), pp. 432–62 DOI: 10.1355/cs37-3e © 2015 ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute ISSN 0129-797X print / ISSN 1793-284X electronic What Next for the Indonesian vy? Challenges and Prospects for Attaining the Minimum Essential by 2024 KOH SWEE LEAN COLLIN A greenwater vy ought to be effective within its country’s immediate waters, especially the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) while also possessing a limited extra-regiol projection ability. Based on this definition, the Indonesian vy does not adequately perform this dual role. While President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s Global Maritime Fulcrum (GMF) vision gives the vy’s long-term greenwater ambitions greater traction, it still faces capacity-building constraints thus prompting it to adopt the Minimum Essential () blueprint as an interim measure. This article examines the Indonesian vy’s prospects of attaining its targets by 2024 as part of its long-term greenwater val ambitions commensurate with Indonesia’s “maritime mediumness”. To identify these capacity gaps, this article models the vy’s projections based on three scerios: , and . Results show that under an Scerio, the vy cannot possibly achieve its targets across all categories by 2024. The and Scerios are more realistic. Gaps in certain categories, primarily the PKR-10514 light frigate programme which forms a key facet of the vy’s greenwater aspirations, are identified. But the risks of project overruns and budget challenges may militate against the modest projections derived in this study. Therefore, this K oh S wee L ean C ollin is an Associate Fellow at the S. Rajaratm School of Intertiol Studies, Singapore. Postal address: nyang Technological University, Block S4, Level B4, 50 nyang Avenue, Singapore, 639798; email: iscollinkoh@ntu.edu.sg. 05 Koh-3P.indd 432 What Next for the Indonesian...
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Publisher
Institute of Southeast Asian Studies
Copyright
Copyright © The Institute of Southeast Asian Studies.
ISSN
1793-284X
Publisher site
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Abstract

Abstract: A greenwater navy ought to be effective within its country’s immediate waters, especially the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) while also possessing a limited extra-regional force projection ability. Based on this definition, the Indonesian Navy does not adequately perform this dual role. While President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s Global Maritime Fulcrum (GMF) vision gives the navy’s long-term greenwater ambitions greater traction, it still faces capacity-building constraints thus prompting it to adopt the Minimum Essential Force (MEF) blueprint as an interim measure. This article examines the Indonesian Navy’s prospects of attaining its MEF targets by 2024 as part of its long-term greenwater naval ambitions commensurate with Indonesia’s “maritime mediumness”. To identify these capacity gaps, this article models the navy’s MEF projections based on three scenarios: Standard, Optimistic and Austere. Results show that under an Austere Scenario, the navy cannot possibly achieve its MEF targets across all categories by 2024. The Optimistic and Standard Scenarios are more realistic. Gaps in certain categories, primarily the PKR-10514 light frigate programme which forms a key facet of the navy’s greenwater aspirations, are identified. But the risks of project overruns and budget challenges may militate against the modest projections derived in this study. Therefore, this article proposes a recalibration of the MEF specifications, by reducing the number of high-capability PKR-10514s optimized for warfighting in exchange for a larger force of low-capability “PKR-minus” optimized for EEZ duties.

Journal

Contemporary Southeast Asia: A Journal of International and Strategic AffairsInstitute of Southeast Asian Studies

Published: Jan 31, 2015

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