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Even Paranoids Have Enemies: Cyclone Nargis and Myanmar's Fears of Invasion

Even Paranoids Have Enemies: Cyclone Nargis and Myanmar's Fears of Invasion Abstract: Most strategic analysts outside Myanmar dismiss an invasion of the country as a fantasy on the part of the military government, albeit one shared by some of its critics. In international relations, however, perceptions can be more important than objective facts. Fears of armed intervention by the United States, or a UN-endorsed coalition, have been strong influences on the ruling council's defence and foreign policies ever since the 1988 pro-democracy uprising. In that sense, the regime's heightened threat perceptions constitute a strategic reality that must be taken into account by the international community. As seen after Cyclone Nargis struck Myanmar in May 2008, failure to do so can make the delivery of humanitarian assistance, and the search for viable long term solutions to Myanmar's complex problems, much more difficult. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Contemporary Southeast Asia: A Journal of International and Strategic Affairs Institute of Southeast Asian Studies

Even Paranoids Have Enemies: Cyclone Nargis and Myanmar's Fears of Invasion

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Publisher
Institute of Southeast Asian Studies
Copyright
Copyright © 2008 ISEAS
ISSN
1793-284X
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Abstract: Most strategic analysts outside Myanmar dismiss an invasion of the country as a fantasy on the part of the military government, albeit one shared by some of its critics. In international relations, however, perceptions can be more important than objective facts. Fears of armed intervention by the United States, or a UN-endorsed coalition, have been strong influences on the ruling council's defence and foreign policies ever since the 1988 pro-democracy uprising. In that sense, the regime's heightened threat perceptions constitute a strategic reality that must be taken into account by the international community. As seen after Cyclone Nargis struck Myanmar in May 2008, failure to do so can make the delivery of humanitarian assistance, and the search for viable long term solutions to Myanmar's complex problems, much more difficult.

Journal

Contemporary Southeast Asia: A Journal of International and Strategic AffairsInstitute of Southeast Asian Studies

Published: Dec 21, 2008

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