An Early History of Hindsight Research

An Early History of Hindsight Research Social Cognition, Vol. 25, No. 1, 2007, pp. 10-13 EARLY HISTORY OF HINDSIGHT RESEARCH FISCHHOFF Baruch Fischhoff Carnegie Mellon University The first studies of hindsight bias reflected the confluence of two desires. One arose from being part of the heady early days of Amos Tversky and Danny Kahneman's heuristics­and­biases research program. As the paradigm evolved, the challenge for the participating graduate students was to find a heuristic to call one's own or to find a way to elaborate one of the three "classics" (availability, representativeness, anchoring, and adjustment). Maya Bar Hillel and Ruth Beyth­Marom chose the latter route. However, I was still struggling to reconcile the political motives that had brought me to Israel, planning to live in a kibbutz for the rest of my life, with academic life--and its more realistic view of the pace of change in human affairs. For one meeting of the seminar, we read Paul Meehl's (1973) "Why I Do Not Attend Case Conferences." One of his many insights concerned clinicians' exaggerated feeling of having known all along how cases were going to turn out. To me, this sounded a lot like the exaggerated claims of understanding political processes that permeated the political http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Social Cognition Guilford Press

An Early History of Hindsight Research

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Abstract

Social Cognition, Vol. 25, No. 1, 2007, pp. 10-13 EARLY HISTORY OF HINDSIGHT RESEARCH FISCHHOFF Baruch Fischhoff Carnegie Mellon University The first studies of hindsight bias reflected the confluence of two desires. One arose from being part of the heady early days of Amos Tversky and Danny Kahneman's heuristics­and­biases research program. As the paradigm evolved, the challenge for the participating graduate students was to find a heuristic to call one's own or to find a way to elaborate one of the three "classics" (availability, representativeness, anchoring, and adjustment). Maya Bar Hillel and Ruth Beyth­Marom chose the latter route. However, I was still struggling to reconcile the political motives that had brought me to Israel, planning to live in a kibbutz for the rest of my life, with academic life--and its more realistic view of the pace of change in human affairs. For one meeting of the seminar, we read Paul Meehl's (1973) "Why I Do Not Attend Case Conferences." One of his many insights concerned clinicians' exaggerated feeling of having known all along how cases were going to turn out. To me, this sounded a lot like the exaggerated claims of understanding political processes that permeated the political

Journal

Social CognitionGuilford Press

Published: Feb 1, 2007

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