Social Cognition, Vol. 25, No. 1, 2007, pp. 10-13 EARLY HISTORY OF HINDSIGHT RESEARCH FISCHHOFF Baruch Fischhoff Carnegie Mellon University The first studies of hindsight bias reflected the confluence of two desires. One arose from being part of the heady early days of Amos Tversky and Danny Kahneman's heuristicsandbiases research program. As the paradigm evolved, the challenge for the participating graduate students was to find a heuristic to call one's own or to find a way to elaborate one of the three "classics" (availability, representativeness, anchoring, and adjustment). Maya Bar Hillel and Ruth BeythMarom chose the latter route. However, I was still struggling to reconcile the political motives that had brought me to Israel, planning to live in a kibbutz for the rest of my life, with academic life--and its more realistic view of the pace of change in human affairs. For one meeting of the seminar, we read Paul Meehl's (1973) "Why I Do Not Attend Case Conferences." One of his many insights concerned clinicians' exaggerated feeling of having known all along how cases were going to turn out. To me, this sounded a lot like the exaggerated claims of understanding political processes that permeated the political
Social Cognition – Guilford Press
Published: Feb 1, 2007
It’s your single place to instantly
discover and read the research
that matters to you.
Enjoy affordable access to
over 18 million articles from more than
15,000 peer-reviewed journals.
All for just $49/month
Query the DeepDyve database, plus search all of PubMed and Google Scholar seamlessly
Save any article or search result from DeepDyve, PubMed, and Google Scholar... all in one place.
Get unlimited, online access to over 18 million full-text articles from more than 15,000 scientific journals.
Read from thousands of the leading scholarly journals from SpringerNature, Elsevier, Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford University Press and more.
All the latest content is available, no embargo periods.
“Hi guys, I cannot tell you how much I love this resource. Incredible. I really believe you've hit the nail on the head with this site in regards to solving the research-purchase issue.”Daniel C.
“Whoa! It’s like Spotify but for academic articles.”@Phil_Robichaud
“I must say, @deepdyve is a fabulous solution to the independent researcher's problem of #access to #information.”@deepthiw
“My last article couldn't be possible without the platform @deepdyve that makes journal papers cheaper.”@JoseServera