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When two existential risks are better than one

When two existential risks are better than one The great filter and an unfriendly artificial general intelligence might pose existential risks to humanity, but these two risks are anti-correlated. The purpose of this paper is to consider the implications of having evidence that mankind is at significant peril from both these risks.Design/methodology/approachThis paper creates Bayesian models under which one might get evidence for being at risk for two perils when we know that we are at risk for at most one of these perils.FindingsHumanity should possibly be more optimistic about its long-term survival if we have convincing evidence for believing that both these risks are real than if we have such evidence for thinking that only one of these perils would likely strike us.Originality/valueDeriving implications of being greatly concerned about both an unfriendly artificial general intelligence and the great filter. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png foresight Emerald Publishing

When two existential risks are better than one

foresight , Volume 21 (1): 8 – Mar 11, 2019

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Publisher
Emerald Publishing
Copyright
© Emerald Publishing Limited
ISSN
1463-6689
DOI
10.1108/fs-04-2018-0038
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

The great filter and an unfriendly artificial general intelligence might pose existential risks to humanity, but these two risks are anti-correlated. The purpose of this paper is to consider the implications of having evidence that mankind is at significant peril from both these risks.Design/methodology/approachThis paper creates Bayesian models under which one might get evidence for being at risk for two perils when we know that we are at risk for at most one of these perils.FindingsHumanity should possibly be more optimistic about its long-term survival if we have convincing evidence for believing that both these risks are real than if we have such evidence for thinking that only one of these perils would likely strike us.Originality/valueDeriving implications of being greatly concerned about both an unfriendly artificial general intelligence and the great filter.

Journal

foresightEmerald Publishing

Published: Mar 11, 2019

Keywords: Existential risks

References