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Using the GM(1,1) model cluster to forecast global oil consumption

Using the GM(1,1) model cluster to forecast global oil consumption PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to compare GM(1,1) model, rolling GM(1,1) model and metabolism GM(1,1) model included in the GM(1,1) model cluster and use these models to forecast global oil consumption.Design/methodology/approachSimulated sequences will be generated randomly, and used to test the models included in the GM(1,1) model cluster; and these grey forecasting models are applied to forecast global oil consumption.FindingsEffectiveness of these grey forecasting models is proved by random experiments, which explains the model adaptability. Global oil consumption is predicted, and it shows that global oil consumption will increase at a rather big growth rate in the next years.Originality/valueThe effectiveness of medium-term prediction of these grey forecasting models is analyzed by random experiments. These models are compared, and some basis for model selection is obtained. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Grey Systems: Theory and Application Emerald Publishing

Using the GM(1,1) model cluster to forecast global oil consumption

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Publisher
Emerald Publishing
Copyright
Copyright © Emerald Group Publishing Limited
ISSN
2043-9377
DOI
10.1108/GS-01-2017-0001
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to compare GM(1,1) model, rolling GM(1,1) model and metabolism GM(1,1) model included in the GM(1,1) model cluster and use these models to forecast global oil consumption.Design/methodology/approachSimulated sequences will be generated randomly, and used to test the models included in the GM(1,1) model cluster; and these grey forecasting models are applied to forecast global oil consumption.FindingsEffectiveness of these grey forecasting models is proved by random experiments, which explains the model adaptability. Global oil consumption is predicted, and it shows that global oil consumption will increase at a rather big growth rate in the next years.Originality/valueThe effectiveness of medium-term prediction of these grey forecasting models is analyzed by random experiments. These models are compared, and some basis for model selection is obtained.

Journal

Grey Systems: Theory and ApplicationEmerald Publishing

Published: Aug 7, 2017

References