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Using fractional GM(1,1) model to predict the life of complex equipment

Using fractional GM(1,1) model to predict the life of complex equipment Purpose– The purpose of this paper is to improve performance for predicting the life spans of complex equipment systems. Design/methodology/approach– The gray system model with fractional order accumulation (FGM(1,1)) is used to predict the life spans of complex equipment systems using small samples. Findings– FGM(1,1) yielded a lower mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for an in-sample and a much lower MAPE for an out-of-sample forecast, which means that FGM(1,1) can predict memory processes. Practical implications– FGM(1,1) can predict the life spans of other complex equipment. Originality/value– FGM(1,1) yielded a lower MAPE for an in-sample and a much lower MAPE for out-of-sample forecasts, which means that FGM(1,1) can predict memory processes. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Grey Systems: Theory and Application Emerald Publishing

Using fractional GM(1,1) model to predict the life of complex equipment

Grey Systems: Theory and Application , Volume 6 (1): 9 – Feb 1, 2016

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Publisher
Emerald Publishing
Copyright
Copyright © Emerald Group Publishing Limited
ISSN
2043-9377
DOI
10.1108/GS-07-2015-0034
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Purpose– The purpose of this paper is to improve performance for predicting the life spans of complex equipment systems. Design/methodology/approach– The gray system model with fractional order accumulation (FGM(1,1)) is used to predict the life spans of complex equipment systems using small samples. Findings– FGM(1,1) yielded a lower mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for an in-sample and a much lower MAPE for an out-of-sample forecast, which means that FGM(1,1) can predict memory processes. Practical implications– FGM(1,1) can predict the life spans of other complex equipment. Originality/value– FGM(1,1) yielded a lower MAPE for an in-sample and a much lower MAPE for out-of-sample forecasts, which means that FGM(1,1) can predict memory processes.

Journal

Grey Systems: Theory and ApplicationEmerald Publishing

Published: Feb 1, 2016

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