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Using foresight for smart policy actions: the case of Russian energy exports

Using foresight for smart policy actions: the case of Russian energy exports PurposeThis study aims to assess future prospects for Russian energy exports until 2040, as global energy markets are undergoing major changes, with possible impacts on Russia.Design/methodology/approachQualitative and quantitative approaches are integrated under a proposed foresight framework. The qualitative method involves an expert survey aimed at identifying major energy trends and their influence on Russia. As the trends are validated, an algorithm is proposed to assess the contribution of separate trends to Russian energy exports.FindingsExperimental quantitative scenarios are conducted to assess the prospects for Russian energy exports until 2040 under the given exogenous scenario calculations of the IEA. Factor analysis allows for an assessment of the contribution of separate factors in dynamics of net energy imports into the regional economies. The future prospects for fossil fuels’ exports on regional markets are considered. Priority markets for Russian energy exporters are identified.Practical implicationsThe results of the paper may be used by decision-makers for adjustments in the system of government policy or corporate strategy.Originality/valueThe paper provides an algorithm to assess energy export flows to macroregions based upon the synthesis of quantitative and qualitative information. Experimental scenario calculations of the Russian fossil fuels’ exports are provided. Strategic decision-making map is elaborated. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png foresight Emerald Publishing

Using foresight for smart policy actions: the case of Russian energy exports

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References (21)

Publisher
Emerald Publishing
Copyright
Copyright © Emerald Group Publishing Limited
ISSN
1463-6689
DOI
10.1108/FS-11-2016-0055
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

PurposeThis study aims to assess future prospects for Russian energy exports until 2040, as global energy markets are undergoing major changes, with possible impacts on Russia.Design/methodology/approachQualitative and quantitative approaches are integrated under a proposed foresight framework. The qualitative method involves an expert survey aimed at identifying major energy trends and their influence on Russia. As the trends are validated, an algorithm is proposed to assess the contribution of separate trends to Russian energy exports.FindingsExperimental quantitative scenarios are conducted to assess the prospects for Russian energy exports until 2040 under the given exogenous scenario calculations of the IEA. Factor analysis allows for an assessment of the contribution of separate factors in dynamics of net energy imports into the regional economies. The future prospects for fossil fuels’ exports on regional markets are considered. Priority markets for Russian energy exporters are identified.Practical implicationsThe results of the paper may be used by decision-makers for adjustments in the system of government policy or corporate strategy.Originality/valueThe paper provides an algorithm to assess energy export flows to macroregions based upon the synthesis of quantitative and qualitative information. Experimental scenario calculations of the Russian fossil fuels’ exports are provided. Strategic decision-making map is elaborated.

Journal

foresightEmerald Publishing

Published: Sep 11, 2017

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