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Using Delphi to Forecast in New Technology Industries

Using Delphi to Forecast in New Technology Industries Presents a case which suggests that companies innewtechnologybased industries have a greater need for longtermplanning than those in other industries at other stages of development.During the period of an industrys infancy, there is also a greater needfor an industry, rather than a company, perspective. Judgementalforecasting techniques are suggested to be more suitable in newindustries because of the problems associated with other forecastingmethods. However, problems such as time pressure on executives and theneed for confidentiality are more acute when using judgementalforecasting techniques in new industries. The Delphi technique has beenused many times as a method of forecasting the future of establishedindustries, but it has never been used to consider the future of a newindustry. Discusses ten problems which can be encountered when Delphi isused in this situation and provides practical hints on procedures toovercome them, gained from its use to forecast changes in one newindustry, the market analysis industry. Since new industries rarely haveestablished trade organizations to carry out such Delphi studies, therole could be played by institutes of management education. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Marketing Intelligence & Planning Emerald Publishing

Using Delphi to Forecast in New Technology Industries

Marketing Intelligence & Planning , Volume 10 (2): 6 – Feb 1, 1992

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Publisher
Emerald Publishing
Copyright
Copyright © Emerald Group Publishing Limited
ISSN
0263-4503
DOI
10.1108/02634509210012069
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Presents a case which suggests that companies innewtechnologybased industries have a greater need for longtermplanning than those in other industries at other stages of development.During the period of an industrys infancy, there is also a greater needfor an industry, rather than a company, perspective. Judgementalforecasting techniques are suggested to be more suitable in newindustries because of the problems associated with other forecastingmethods. However, problems such as time pressure on executives and theneed for confidentiality are more acute when using judgementalforecasting techniques in new industries. The Delphi technique has beenused many times as a method of forecasting the future of establishedindustries, but it has never been used to consider the future of a newindustry. Discusses ten problems which can be encountered when Delphi isused in this situation and provides practical hints on procedures toovercome them, gained from its use to forecast changes in one newindustry, the market analysis industry. Since new industries rarely haveestablished trade organizations to carry out such Delphi studies, therole could be played by institutes of management education.

Journal

Marketing Intelligence & PlanningEmerald Publishing

Published: Feb 1, 1992

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