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Understanding the risks in China's PPP projects: ranking of their probability and consequence

Understanding the risks in China's PPP projects: ranking of their probability and consequence Purpose – Based on the Chinese government's increased public‐private partnership (PPP) experience in the last decade, they have made a lot of efforts to improve the investment environment. This paper hence aims to conduct a more up‐to‐date evaluation of the potential risks in China's PPP projects. Design/methodology/approach – As part of a comprehensive research looking at implementing PPP, a two‐round Delphi survey was conducted with experienced practitioners to identify the key risks that could be encountered in China's PPP projects. The probability of occurrence and severity of the consequence for the selected risks were derived from the surveys and used to calculate their relative risk significance index score. Findings – The results showed that the top ten risks identified according to their risk significance index score are: government's intervention; poor political decision making; financial risk; government's reliability; market demand change; corruption; subjective evaluation; interest rate change; immature juristic system; and inflation. Further analysis was conducted on these risks so that the possible consequence, the most impacted parties, and the preferred allocation are discussed. Recommendations on commercial principles or contract terms between the Chinese government and private consortium are also provided. Originality/value – These up‐to‐date findings concerning the probability and consequence of key risks would provide a valuable reference for private investors who are planning to invest in infrastructure projects in China. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Engineering Construction & Architectural Management Emerald Publishing

Understanding the risks in China's PPP projects: ranking of their probability and consequence

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References (34)

Publisher
Emerald Publishing
Copyright
Copyright © 2011 Emerald Group Publishing Limited. All rights reserved.
ISSN
0969-9988
DOI
10.1108/09699981111165176
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Purpose – Based on the Chinese government's increased public‐private partnership (PPP) experience in the last decade, they have made a lot of efforts to improve the investment environment. This paper hence aims to conduct a more up‐to‐date evaluation of the potential risks in China's PPP projects. Design/methodology/approach – As part of a comprehensive research looking at implementing PPP, a two‐round Delphi survey was conducted with experienced practitioners to identify the key risks that could be encountered in China's PPP projects. The probability of occurrence and severity of the consequence for the selected risks were derived from the surveys and used to calculate their relative risk significance index score. Findings – The results showed that the top ten risks identified according to their risk significance index score are: government's intervention; poor political decision making; financial risk; government's reliability; market demand change; corruption; subjective evaluation; interest rate change; immature juristic system; and inflation. Further analysis was conducted on these risks so that the possible consequence, the most impacted parties, and the preferred allocation are discussed. Recommendations on commercial principles or contract terms between the Chinese government and private consortium are also provided. Originality/value – These up‐to‐date findings concerning the probability and consequence of key risks would provide a valuable reference for private investors who are planning to invest in infrastructure projects in China.

Journal

Engineering Construction & Architectural ManagementEmerald Publishing

Published: Sep 6, 2011

Keywords: Risk identification; Risk management; Public private partnerships; Risk assessment; Investments; China

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