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Towards a clarification of probability, possibility and plausibility: how semantics could help futures practice to improve

Towards a clarification of probability, possibility and plausibility: how semantics could help... Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to discuss the clarification of three qualifiers “probable”, “possible” and “plausible”, which are often used interchangeably in foresight and futures studies practice, but which could obtain added value through a careful distinction. In general, it shows the importance of language as the main tool for futures practitioners. Design/methodology/approach – Employs semantic and conceptual research. Findings – Distinction of the three qualifiers has not only semantic importance; it also leads to a better conception of what futures practice could work towards. Practical implications – Futures practitioners should more carefully apply their vocabulary, since it is their main tool. By carefully distinguishing probability, possibility and plausibility, a better focus on the purpose of futures practice becomes attainable. Originality/value – Very little effort is spent on the working of language in futures studies. Besides glossaries, there is very little work done in sharpening this major tool. The semantic confusion that reigns within the foresight/futures studies community is mainly due to a lack of involvement in this clarification process. Applied semantics is often considered as burdensome, whereas it should be at the core of how the future is being conceptualized. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png foresight Emerald Publishing

Towards a clarification of probability, possibility and plausibility: how semantics could help futures practice to improve

Ruud van der Helm
foresight , Volume 8 (3): 11 – May 1, 2006
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References (15)

Publisher
Emerald Publishing
Copyright
Copyright © 2006 Emerald Group Publishing Limited. All rights reserved.
ISSN
1463-6689
DOI
10.1108/14636680610668045
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to discuss the clarification of three qualifiers “probable”, “possible” and “plausible”, which are often used interchangeably in foresight and futures studies practice, but which could obtain added value through a careful distinction. In general, it shows the importance of language as the main tool for futures practitioners. Design/methodology/approach – Employs semantic and conceptual research. Findings – Distinction of the three qualifiers has not only semantic importance; it also leads to a better conception of what futures practice could work towards. Practical implications – Futures practitioners should more carefully apply their vocabulary, since it is their main tool. By carefully distinguishing probability, possibility and plausibility, a better focus on the purpose of futures practice becomes attainable. Originality/value – Very little effort is spent on the working of language in futures studies. Besides glossaries, there is very little work done in sharpening this major tool. The semantic confusion that reigns within the foresight/futures studies community is mainly due to a lack of involvement in this clarification process. Applied semantics is often considered as burdensome, whereas it should be at the core of how the future is being conceptualized.

Journal

foresight – Emerald Publishing

Published: May 1, 2006

Keywords: Probability theory; Semantics; Language

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