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Time Series Forecasting Techniques Shortterm Planning in Tourism

Time Series Forecasting Techniques Shortterm Planning in Tourism Planning, both operational andstrategic, relies on accurate forecasting. Planning intourism is no less dependent on accurate forecasts. However, tourismdemand forecasting has been dominated by the application ofregressioneconometric techniques. Past studies on the forecastingaccuracy of econometricregression models suggest that forecastsgenerated by these models are not necessarily superior to forecastsgenerated by simple time series techniques. Seven time seriesforecasting techniques were used to generate forecasts of internationaltourist arrivals from Thailand to Hong Kong. The results confirm thatsimple techniques may be just as accurate and often more timeandcosteffective than more complex ones. Practitioners in the tourismindustry may confidently use any of the forecasting techniquesdemonstrated here for their shortterm planning activities. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management Emerald Publishing

Time Series Forecasting Techniques Shortterm Planning in Tourism

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References (11)

Publisher
Emerald Publishing
Copyright
Copyright © Emerald Group Publishing Limited
ISSN
0959-6119
DOI
10.1108/09596119210018864
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Planning, both operational andstrategic, relies on accurate forecasting. Planning intourism is no less dependent on accurate forecasts. However, tourismdemand forecasting has been dominated by the application ofregressioneconometric techniques. Past studies on the forecastingaccuracy of econometricregression models suggest that forecastsgenerated by these models are not necessarily superior to forecastsgenerated by simple time series techniques. Seven time seriesforecasting techniques were used to generate forecasts of internationaltourist arrivals from Thailand to Hong Kong. The results confirm thatsimple techniques may be just as accurate and often more timeandcosteffective than more complex ones. Practitioners in the tourismindustry may confidently use any of the forecasting techniquesdemonstrated here for their shortterm planning activities.

Journal

International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management – Emerald Publishing

Published: Apr 1, 1992

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