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Planning, both operational andstrategic, relies on accurate forecasting. Planning intourism is no less dependent on accurate forecasts. However, tourismdemand forecasting has been dominated by the application ofregressioneconometric techniques. Past studies on the forecastingaccuracy of econometricregression models suggest that forecastsgenerated by these models are not necessarily superior to forecastsgenerated by simple time series techniques. Seven time seriesforecasting techniques were used to generate forecasts of internationaltourist arrivals from Thailand to Hong Kong. The results confirm thatsimple techniques may be just as accurate and often more timeandcosteffective than more complex ones. Practitioners in the tourismindustry may confidently use any of the forecasting techniquesdemonstrated here for their shortterm planning activities.
International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management – Emerald Publishing
Published: Apr 1, 1992
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