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The great game of gotcha

The great game of gotcha Purpose – This paper aims to highlight the strategic irrelevancy of much prognostication in business. Design/methodology/approach – This paper provides an opinion column. Findings – This column shows how far off base recent government predictions of the price of oil have been, and compares this supposed miserable failure to similar (inevitable) failures on the part of the private sector. Single‐point prediction is essentially a sucker's game; though it is demanded by outside authorities, and often must be supplied for tactical reasons, it should never be relied upon for strategic purposes. Originality/value – Exposes how pointless, from a strategic point‐of‐view, the mass of predictive effort in both private and public sectors can be. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Journal of Business Strategy Emerald Publishing

The great game of gotcha

Patrick Marren
Journal of Business Strategy , Volume 29 (5): 3 – Sep 5, 2008
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Publisher
Emerald Publishing
Copyright
Copyright © 2008 Emerald Group Publishing Limited. All rights reserved.
ISSN
0275-6668
DOI
10.1108/02756660810902323
Publisher site
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Abstract

Purpose – This paper aims to highlight the strategic irrelevancy of much prognostication in business. Design/methodology/approach – This paper provides an opinion column. Findings – This column shows how far off base recent government predictions of the price of oil have been, and compares this supposed miserable failure to similar (inevitable) failures on the part of the private sector. Single‐point prediction is essentially a sucker's game; though it is demanded by outside authorities, and often must be supplied for tactical reasons, it should never be relied upon for strategic purposes. Originality/value – Exposes how pointless, from a strategic point‐of‐view, the mass of predictive effort in both private and public sectors can be.

Journal

Journal of Business Strategy – Emerald Publishing

Published: Sep 5, 2008

Keywords: Petroleum products; Forecasting; Sensitivity analysis

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