The formation of conventional expectations in Keynesian fundamental uncertainty

The formation of conventional expectations in Keynesian fundamental uncertainty This article develops an analysis of the conventional formation of expectations by means of introducing an overlooked factor in the analysis: the role of inference. Individual inferences and changes in evidential weight of beliefs and in the state of confidence are integrated with an analysis of the conventional character of expectations in a manner that is consistent with evidence provided by research in social psychology. This approach provides the link between the “agency” approach and the “structure” approach in Keynesian analysis that has been stressed as an important development. It also improves our understanding of the mechanisms underlying economic behavior under uncertainty such as liquidity‐preference in different social and cultural settings. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png International Journal of Social Economics Emerald Publishing

The formation of conventional expectations in Keynesian fundamental uncertainty

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Publisher
Emerald Publishing
Copyright
Copyright © 2004 Emerald Group Publishing Limited. All rights reserved.
ISSN
0306-8293
DOI
10.1108/03068290410561203
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

This article develops an analysis of the conventional formation of expectations by means of introducing an overlooked factor in the analysis: the role of inference. Individual inferences and changes in evidential weight of beliefs and in the state of confidence are integrated with an analysis of the conventional character of expectations in a manner that is consistent with evidence provided by research in social psychology. This approach provides the link between the “agency” approach and the “structure” approach in Keynesian analysis that has been stressed as an important development. It also improves our understanding of the mechanisms underlying economic behavior under uncertainty such as liquidity‐preference in different social and cultural settings.

Journal

International Journal of Social EconomicsEmerald Publishing

Published: Nov 1, 2004

Keywords: Social economics; Keynesian economics; Expectation

References

  • Conformity and the role of the deviant
    Allen, V.L.
  • Probable knowledge
    Jeffrey, R.C.
  • The Limits to Rational Expectations
    Pesaran, H.

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