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The effect of symmetric and asymmetric information on volatility structure of crypto-currency markets

The effect of symmetric and asymmetric information on volatility structure of crypto-currency... This paper aims to examine whether the crypto-currencies’ market returns are symmetric or asymmetric informative, through analysing the daily logarithmic returns of bitcoin currency over the period of 2011-2017.Design/methodology/approachIn doing so, the symmetric informative analysis is estimated by applying the generalised auto-regressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) (1,1) model, whereas asymmetric informative or leverage effects analysis is estimated by exponential GARCH (1,1), asymmetric power ARCH (1,1) and threshold GARCH (1,1) models. In addition, the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity in mean (GARCH-M (1,1)) was applied to examine whether the risk-return trade-off phenomenon was persistent in crypto-currencies market.FindingsThe main findings indicate that bitcoin market return or volatility is symmetric informative and has a long memory to persist in the future. Furthermore, the sympatric volatility is found to be more sensitive to its past values (lagged) than to the new shock of the market values. However, asymmetric informative response of volatility to the negative and the positive shocks do not exist in the bitcoin market or, in other words, there is no leverage effect. This suggests that the bitcoin market is in harmony with the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) with respect to the asymmetric information and violated the EMH with regard to the symmetric information. Hence, the market price or return of bitcoin currency could not be predicted by simply exercising such past market information in the short-run investment. In addition, the estimated coefficient of conditional variance or risk premium (λ) in the mean equation of CHARCH–M (1,1) model is positive however, statistically insignificant. This indicates the absence of risk-return trade-off, in which case the higher market risk will not essentially lead to higher market returns. This paper has proposed that an investment in the crypto-currency market is more appropriate for risk-averse investors than risk takers.Originality/valueThe findings of the study will provide investors with necessary information about the bitcoin market price efficiency, hedging effectiveness and risk management. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Journal of Financial Economic Policy Emerald Publishing

The effect of symmetric and asymmetric information on volatility structure of crypto-currency markets

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References (64)

Publisher
Emerald Publishing
Copyright
© Emerald Publishing Limited
ISSN
1757-6385
DOI
10.1108/jfep-10-2018-0147
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

This paper aims to examine whether the crypto-currencies’ market returns are symmetric or asymmetric informative, through analysing the daily logarithmic returns of bitcoin currency over the period of 2011-2017.Design/methodology/approachIn doing so, the symmetric informative analysis is estimated by applying the generalised auto-regressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) (1,1) model, whereas asymmetric informative or leverage effects analysis is estimated by exponential GARCH (1,1), asymmetric power ARCH (1,1) and threshold GARCH (1,1) models. In addition, the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity in mean (GARCH-M (1,1)) was applied to examine whether the risk-return trade-off phenomenon was persistent in crypto-currencies market.FindingsThe main findings indicate that bitcoin market return or volatility is symmetric informative and has a long memory to persist in the future. Furthermore, the sympatric volatility is found to be more sensitive to its past values (lagged) than to the new shock of the market values. However, asymmetric informative response of volatility to the negative and the positive shocks do not exist in the bitcoin market or, in other words, there is no leverage effect. This suggests that the bitcoin market is in harmony with the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) with respect to the asymmetric information and violated the EMH with regard to the symmetric information. Hence, the market price or return of bitcoin currency could not be predicted by simply exercising such past market information in the short-run investment. In addition, the estimated coefficient of conditional variance or risk premium (λ) in the mean equation of CHARCH–M (1,1) model is positive however, statistically insignificant. This indicates the absence of risk-return trade-off, in which case the higher market risk will not essentially lead to higher market returns. This paper has proposed that an investment in the crypto-currency market is more appropriate for risk-averse investors than risk takers.Originality/valueThe findings of the study will provide investors with necessary information about the bitcoin market price efficiency, hedging effectiveness and risk management.

Journal

Journal of Financial Economic Policy – Emerald Publishing

Published: Aug 6, 2019

Keywords: Market efficiency; Forecasting; Monetary systems

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