Get 20M+ Full-Text Papers For Less Than $1.50/day. Start a 14-Day Trial for You or Your Team.

Learn More →

System dynamics models for the simulation of sustainable urban development

System dynamics models for the simulation of sustainable urban development System dynamics is a whole-system modelling and learning approach, useful for tackling non-linear problems, such as sustainable urban development. The purpose of this paper is to review system dynamics applications in the simulation of sustainable urban development over a period from 2005 to 2017.Design/methodology/approachThe analysis reveals that the number of applications of system dynamics modelling in the area of urban sustainable development increased in the analysed period. Research has changed its focus from the modelling of environmental problems to more complex models, portraying the multidimensional socio-economic processes that have an impact on the sustainability of urban development. Analysed case studies most often use the behaviour reproduction test for model validation, but without a unified approach. In most cases, modelling has been done in China, Germany and the USA, while urban development in the Eastern European countries, Africa and Latin America has not often been investigated. This paper indicates the knowledge gaps and suggests future research directions.FindingsPapers that report the use of system dynamics modelling reveal a wide range of applications in urban sustainability. The analysis shows significant emphasis on environmental problems, while the interest for modelling social problems has been increasing during the last several years. Most of the modelled problems examine the sustainability of resources (land, water) and waste management, which are used for insights into the reasons for the system behaviour, forecasting future behaviour and policy testing.Originality/valueThe presented models were developed in most cases for the purpose of understanding the phenomena examined, as well as the future use of the models in policy planning. This brings us back to the need for greater stakeholder involvement, not only in the initial phase, but also during the whole modelling process, which could increase understanding, use and ownership of the models in the future, and thus increase their practical application. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Kybernetes Emerald Publishing

System dynamics models for the simulation of sustainable urban development

Download PDF
45 pages

Loading next page...
 
/lp/emerald-publishing/system-dynamics-models-for-the-simulation-of-sustainable-urban-9fVYHJpmwe
Publisher
Emerald Publishing
Copyright
© Emerald Publishing Limited
ISSN
0368-492X
DOI
10.1108/k-04-2018-0210
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

System dynamics is a whole-system modelling and learning approach, useful for tackling non-linear problems, such as sustainable urban development. The purpose of this paper is to review system dynamics applications in the simulation of sustainable urban development over a period from 2005 to 2017.Design/methodology/approachThe analysis reveals that the number of applications of system dynamics modelling in the area of urban sustainable development increased in the analysed period. Research has changed its focus from the modelling of environmental problems to more complex models, portraying the multidimensional socio-economic processes that have an impact on the sustainability of urban development. Analysed case studies most often use the behaviour reproduction test for model validation, but without a unified approach. In most cases, modelling has been done in China, Germany and the USA, while urban development in the Eastern European countries, Africa and Latin America has not often been investigated. This paper indicates the knowledge gaps and suggests future research directions.FindingsPapers that report the use of system dynamics modelling reveal a wide range of applications in urban sustainability. The analysis shows significant emphasis on environmental problems, while the interest for modelling social problems has been increasing during the last several years. Most of the modelled problems examine the sustainability of resources (land, water) and waste management, which are used for insights into the reasons for the system behaviour, forecasting future behaviour and policy testing.Originality/valueThe presented models were developed in most cases for the purpose of understanding the phenomena examined, as well as the future use of the models in policy planning. This brings us back to the need for greater stakeholder involvement, not only in the initial phase, but also during the whole modelling process, which could increase understanding, use and ownership of the models in the future, and thus increase their practical application.

Journal

Kybernetes – Emerald Publishing

Published: Jan 23, 2020

Keywords: Review; Simulation; System dynamics; Urban sustainable development

References

  • Combating obesity through healthy eating behavior: a call for system dynamics optimization
    Abidin, N.Z.; Mamat, M.; Dangerfield, B.; Zulkepli, J.H.; Baten, M.A.; Wibowo, A.
  • Urban dynamics-the first fifty years
    Alfeld, L.E.
  • Urbanization and environmental policy effects on the future availability of grazing resources on the Mongolian Plateau: modeling socio-environmental system dynamics
    Allington, G.R.; Li, W.; Brown, D.G.
  • Participatory decision making for sustainable development – the use of mediated modelling techniques
    Antunes, P.; Santos, R.; Videira, N.
  • Predicting hourly air pollutant levels using artificial neural networks coupled with uncertainty analysis by Monte Carlo simulations
    Arhami, M.; Kamali, N.; Rajabi, M.M.
  • Assumptions in Forrester's urban dynamics model and their implications
    Babcock, D.L.
  • Formal aspects of model validity and validation in system dynamics
    Barlas, Y.
  • A dynamic analysis of the wetland mitigation process and its effects on no net loss policy
    Bendor, T.
  • Parking policy and urban mobility level of service – system dynamics as a modelling tool for decision making
    Bernardino, J.P.; van der Hoofd, M.
  • Exploring institutional adaptive capacity in practice: examining water governance adaptation in Australia
    Bettini, Y.; Brown, R.R.; de Haan, F.J.
  • A system dynamics model to simulate sustainable interventions on chronic disease outcomes in an urban community
    Brittin, J.; Araz, O.M.; Nam, Y.; Huang, T.K.
  • Physical characterization of particulate emissions from diesel engines: a review
    Burtscher, H.
  • System dynamics of urban traffic based on its parking-related-states
    Cao, J.; Menendez, M.
  • A random utility model for park and carsharing services and the pure preference for electric vehicles
    Cartenì, A.; Cascetta, E.; de Luca, S.
  • An interactive dynamic multi-objective programming model to support better land use planning
    Chang, Y.-C.; Ko, T.-T.
  • Evaluation of urban water resource security under urban expansion using a system dynamics model
    Chang, Y.T.; Liu, H.L.; Bao, A.M.; Chen, X.; Wang, L.
  • An analysis based on SD model for energy-related CO2 mitigation in the Chinese household sector
    Chen, X.; Wang, G.; Guo, X.; Fu, J.
  • Urban transportation energy and carbon dioxide emission reduction strategies
    Cheng, Y.H.; Chang, Y.H.; Lu, I.J.
  • Water–energy–carbon nexus modeling for urban water systems: system dynamics approach
    Chhipi-Shrestha, G.; Hewage, K.; Sadiq, R.
  • Urbanization in developing countries: current trends, future projections, and key challenges for sustainability
    Cohen, B.
  • Exploring synergies between transit investment and dense redevelopment: a scenario analysis in a rapidly urbanizing landscape
    Cox, L.; Bassi, A.; Kolling, J.; Procter, A.; Flanders, N.; Tanners, N.; Araujo, R.
  • Scenario of future e-waste generation and recycle-reuse-landfill-based disposal pattern in India: a system dynamics approach
    Dasgupta, D.; Debsarkar, A.; Hazra, T.; Bala, B.K.; Gangopadhyay, A.; Chatterjee, D.
  • Fluid emissions at the Aquitaine shelf (bay of Biscay, France): a biogenic origin or the expression of hydrocarbon leakage?
    Dupré, S.; Berger, L.; Le Bouffant, N.; Scalabrin, C.; Bourillet, J.F.
  • Forecasting municipal solid waste generation in a fast-growing urban region with system dynamics modelling
    Dyson, B.; Chang, N.B.
  • Investigating carbon footprint reduction potential of public transportation in United States: a system dynamics approach
    Ercan, T.; Onat, N.C.; Tatari, O.
  • Public transportation adoption requires a paradigm shift in urban development structure
    Ercan, T.; Onat, N.C.; Tatari, O.; Mathias, J.D.
  • Simulating urban transformation in haaglanden, the Netherlands
    Eskinasi, M.; Vennix, J.
  • Accessing on the sustainability of urban ecological-economic systems by means of a coupled emergy and system dynamics model: a case study of Beijing
    Fang, W.; An, H.; Li, H.; Gao, X.; Sun, X.; Zhong, W.
  • Coupled human and water infrastructure systems sector interdependencies: framework evaluating the impact of cities experiencing urban decline
    Faust, K.M.; Abraham, D.M.; DeLaurentis, D.
  • System dynamics modeling for urban energy consumption and CO2 emissions: a case study of Beijing, China
    Feng, Y.Y.; Chen, S.Q.; Zhang, L.X.
  • Modeling sustainability of water, environment, livelihood, and culture in traditional irrigation communities and their linked watersheds
    Fernald, A.; Tidwell, V.; Rivera, J.; Rodríguez, S.; Guldan, S.; Steele, C.; Ochoa, C.; Hurd, B.; Ortiz, M.; Boykin, K.; Cibils, A.
  • Application of system dynamics model as decision making tool in urban planning process toward stabilizing carbon dioxide emissions from cities
    Fong, W.K.; Matsumoto, H.; Lun, Y.F.
  • Counterintuitive behaviour of social systems
    Forrester, J.W.
  • System dynamics as a foundation for pre-college education
    Forrester, J.W.
  • A case study method for landscape architecture
    Francis, M.
  • Is counter-productive policy creating serious consequences ? The case of highway maintenance
    Friedman, S.
  • Effects of land-use changes on city-level net carbon emissions based on a coupled model
    Fu, B.; Wu, M.; Che, Y.; Yang, K.
  • Scenario analysis of sustainable intensive land use based on SD model
    Geng, B.; Zheng, X.; Fu, M.
  • System dynamics approach for simulating water resources of an urban water system with emphasis on sustainability of groundwater
    Ghasemi, A.; Saghafian, B.; Golian, S.
  • WaterSim: a simulation model for urban water planning in Phoenix, Arizona, USA
    Gober, P.; Wentz, E.A.; Lant, T.; Tschudi, M.K.; Kirkwood, C.W.
  • Understanding urban dynamics: an analysis of garn’s interpretation
    Graham, A.K.; Mass, J.N.
  • A critique of Forrester’s model of an urban area
    Gray, J.N.; Pessel, D.; Varaiya, P.P.
  • Contributions to model validation: hierarchy, process, and cessation
    Groesser, S.N.; Schwaninger, M.
  • Modeling and dynamic assessment of urban economy–resource–environment system with a coupled system dynamics – geographic information system model
    Guan, D.; Gao, W.; Su, W.; Li, H.; Hokao, K.
  • Environmental impacts of urban growth from an integrated dynamic perspective: a case study of Shenzhen, South China
    Güneralp, B.; Seto, K.C.
  • System dynamics-based evaluation of interventions to promote appropriate waste disposal behaviors in low-income urban areas: a Baltimore case study
    Guo, H.; Hobbs, B.F.; Lasater, M.E.; Parker, C.L.; Winch, P.J.
  • Linking a transport dynamic model with an emissions model to aid air pollution evaluations of transport policies in Latin America
    Guzman, L.A.; Orjuela, J.P.
  • Simulation models on human–nature interactions in urban landscapes: a review including spatial economics, system dynamics, cellular automata and agent-based approaches
    Haase, D.; Schwarz, N.
  • Actors and factors in land-use simulation: the challenge of urban shrinkage
    Haase, D.; Haase, A.; Kabisch, N.; Kabisch, S.; Rink, D.
  • Evaluation of sustainable policy in urban transportation using system dynamics and world cities data: a case study in Isfahan
    Haghshenas, H.; Vaziri, M.; Gholamialam, A.
  • Application of an integrated system dynamics and cellular automata model for urban growth assessment: a case study of Shanghai, China
    Han, J.; Hayashi, Y.; Cao, X.; Imura, H.
  • Alternative future analysis for assessing the potential impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics
    He, C.; Zhao, Y.; Huang, Q.; Zhang, Q.; Zhang, D.
  • Urban long term electricity demand forecast method based on system dynamics of the new economic normal: the case of Tianjin
    He, Y.; Jiao, J.; Chen, Q.; Ge, S.; Chang, Y.; Xu, Y.
  • Dynamic techno-ecological modeling of highway systems: a case study of the Shin-Meishin expressway in Japan
    Hiasa, S.; Noori, M.; Kelly, C.; Tatari, O.
  • Navigating towards sustainable development: a system dynamics approach
    Hjorth, P.; Bagheri, A.
  • Ecological footprints and sustainable urban form
    Holden, E.
  • Exploring the role of interactive computer simulations in public administration education
    Hu, Q.; Johnston, E.; Hemphill, L.; Krishnamurthy, R.; Vinze, A.
  • Modeling the impacts of drying trend scenarios on land systems in Northern China using an integrated SD and CA model
    Huang, Q.X.; He, C.Y.; Liu, Z.F.; Shi, P.J.
  • Forrester’s urban dynamics: a sociologist’s inductive critique
    Jaeckel, M.T.
  • Integrated urban ecosystem evaluation and modeling based on embodied cosmic exergy
    Jiang, M.M.; Chen, B.
  • Modeling a policy making framework for urban sustainability: incorporating system dynamics into the ecological footprint
    Jin, W.; Xu, L.; Yang, Z.
  • System-dynamic analysis on socio-economic impacts of land consolidation in China
    Jin, X.; Xu, X.; Xiang, X.; Bai, Q.; Zhou, Y.
  • Cybernetics and system dynamics: impacts on public policy
    Kennedy, M.
  • Uncovering land-use dynamics driven by human decision-making – a combined model approach using cellular automata and system dynamics
    Lauf, S.; Haase, D.; Hostert, P.; Lakes, T.; Kleinschmit, B.
  • Simulating demography and housing demand in an urban region under scenarios of growth and shrinkage
    Lauf, S.; Haase, D.; Seppelt, R.; Schwarz, N.
  • Biophysical and system approaches for simulating land-use change
    Lee, C.-L.; Huang, S.-L.; Chan, S.-L.
  • Generating sustainable towns from Chinese villages: a system modeling approach
    Levine, R.S.; Hughes, M.T.; Ryan Mather, C.; Yanarella, E.J.
  • A spatially explicit method to examine the impact of urbanisation on natural ecosystem service values
    Li, W.; Wu, C.
  • Measurement and scenario simulation of effect of urbanisation on regional CO 2 emissions based on UEC-SD model: a case study in Liaoning province, China
    Li, F.; Dong, S.; Li, S.; Li, Z.; Li, Y.
  • Research on the sustainable development of green-space in Beijing using the dynamic systems model
    Li, F.; Sun, Y.; Li, X.; Hao, X.; Li, W.; Qian, Y.; Liu, H.; Sun, H.
  • Combining system dynamics and hybrid particle swarm optimization for land use allocation
    Liu, X.; Ou, J.; Li, X.; Ai, B.
  • Extracting the dynamics of urban expansion in China using DMSP-OLS nighttime light data from 1992 to 2008
    Liu, Z.; He, C.; Zhang, Q.; Huang, Q.; Yang
  • A system dynamics approach to scenario analysis for urban passenger transport energy consumption and CO2 emissions: a case study of Beijing
    Liu, X.; Ma, S.; Tian, J.; Jia, N.; Li, G.
  • A new temporal–spatial dynamics method of simulating land-use change
    Liu, D.; Zheng, X.; Zhang, C.; Wang, H.
  • A future land use simulation model (FLUS) for simulating multiple land use scenarios by coupling human and natural effects
    Liu, X.; Liang, X.; Li, X.; Xu, X.; Ou, J.; Chen, Y.; Li, S.; Wang, S.; Pei, F.
  • An integrated GIS-based analysis system for land-use management of lake areas in urban fringe
    Liu, Y.; Lv, X.; Qin, X.; Guo, H.; Yu, Y.; Wang, J.; Mao, G.
  • The implications of current and future urbanization for global protected areas and biodiversity conservation
    McDonald, R.I.; Kareiva, P.; Forman, R.T.
  • Understanding bicycling in cities using system dynamics modelling
    Macmillan, A.; Woodcock, J.
  • Trends in local newspaper reporting of london cyclist fatalities 1992-2012: the role of the media in shaping the systems dynamics of cycling
    Macmillan, A.; Roberts, A.; Woodcock, J.; Aldred, R.; Goodman, A.
  • Modeling transport management and land use over time
    Ma, X.; Lo, H.K.
  • Modelling the social determinants of health and simulating short-term and long-term intervention impacts for the city of Toronto, Canada
    Mahamoud, A.; Roche, B.; Homer, J.
  • A review of the recent contribution of systems thinking to operational research and management science
    Mingers, J.; White, L.
  • Policy analysis to reduce climate change-induced risks in urban and rural areas in Korea
    Moon, T.H.; Kim, D.H.; Park, C.S.; Lee, D.S.
  • Modeling the dynamics of urban development project: focusing on self-sufficient city development
    Park, M.; Kim, Y.; Lee, H.-S.; Han, S.; Hwang, S.; Choi, M.J.
  • Defining a global urban development agenda
    Parnell, S.
  • An integrated approach to improving fossil fuel emissions scenarios with urban ecosystem studies
    Pataki, D.E.; Emmi, P.C.; Forster, C.B.; Mills, J.I.; Pardyjak, E.R.; Peterson, T.R.; Thompson, J.D.
  • The effectiveness of light rail transit in achieving regional CO2 emissions targets is linked to building energy use: insights from system dynamics modelling
    Procter, A.; Bassi, A.; Kolling, J.; Cox, L.; Flanders, N.; Tanners, N.; Araujo, R.
  • Simulation study of the sustainable utilization of urban water resources based on system dynamics: a case study of Jiamusi
    Qiang, F.; Tianxiao, L.; Dong, L.; He, D.
  • Assessment of environmental improvement measures using a novel integrated model: a case study of the Shenzhen river catchment, China
    Qin, H.P.; Su, Q.; Khu, S.T.
  • System dynamics analysis of water supply and demand in the North China plain
    Qin, H.; Sun, A.C.T.; Liu, J.; Zheng, C.
  • Mr. Hamilton, Mr. Forrester, and a foundation for evolutionary economics
    Radzicki, M.J.
  • Evaluating the effects of land‐use development policies on ex‐urban Forest cover: an integrated agent‐based GIS approach
    Robinson, D.T.; Brown, D.G.
  • Some questionable assumptions in the model and method of urban dynamics
    Rochberg, R.
  • An integrated system dynamic–cellular automata model for distributed water-infrastructure planning
    Rozos, E.; Butler, D.; Makropoulos, C.
  • A systems approach for assessing water conservation potential through demand-based water tariffs
    Sahin, O.; Bertone, E.; Beal, C.D.
  • Spatial urban dynamics, a vision on the future of urban dynamics: Forrester revisited
    Sanders, P.; Sanders, F.
  • Cellular automata models for the simulation of real-world urban processes: a review and analysis
    Santé, I.; García, A.M.; Miranda, D.; Crecente, R.
  • Model simplification and validation with indirect structure validity tests
    Saysel, A.K.; Barlas, Y.
  • Omnipresent sprawl? A review of urban simulation models with respect to urban shrinkage
    Schwarz, N.; Haase, D.; Seppelt, R.
  • A system dynamics model for the sustainable land use planning and development
    Shen, Q.; Chen, Q.; Tang, B.-S.; Yeung, S.; Hu, Y.; Cheung, G.
  • Bounded rationality and organizational learning
    Simon, H.A.
  • Using system dynamics to improve public participation in environmental decisions
    Stave, K.A.
  • Exploring the next great frontier: system dynamics at fifty
    Sterman, J.D.
  • Modeling of urban solid waste management system: the case of Dhaka city
    Sufian, M.A.; Bala, B.K.
  • A system dynamics model to evaluate effects of source separation of municipal solid waste management: a case of Bangkok, Thailand
    Sukholthaman, P.; Sharp, A.
  • Use of system dynamics as a decision-making tool in building design and operation
    Thompson, B.P.; Bank, L.C.
  • Eco-cities: an integrated system dynamics framework and a concise research taxonomy
    Tsolakis, N.; Anthopoulos, L.
  • Tradeoffs between maintenance of ecosystem services and socio-economic development in rural mountainous communities in Southern Spain: a dynamic simulation approach
    Vidal-Legaz, B.; Martínez-Fernández, J.; Picón, A.S.; Pugnaire, F.I.
  • A study of regional sustainable development based on GIS/RS and SD model – case of Hadaqi industrial corridor
    Wan, L.; Zhang, Y.; Qi, S.; Li, H.; Chen, X.; Zang, S.
  • Water resources carrying capacity of wetlands in Beijing: analysis of policy optimization for urban wetland water resources management
    Wang, C.; Hou, Y.; Xue, Y.
  • Development priority zoning in China and its impact on urban growth management strategy
    Wang, W.; Zhang, X.; Wu, Y.; Zhou, L.; Skitmore, M.
  • A system dynamics urban water management model for Macau, China
    Wei, T.; Lou, I.; Yang, Z.; Li, Y.
  • System dynamics modeling and policy simulation for urban traffic: a case study in Beijing
    Wen, L.; Bai, L.
  • The development of system dynamics as a methodology for system description and qualitative analysis
    Wolstenholme, E.F.; Coyle, R.G.
  • The impact of urbanization policy on land use change: a scenario analysis
    Wu, Y.; Zhang, X.; Shen, L.
  • A coupled SD and CLUE-S model for exploring the impact of land use change on ecosystem service value: a case study in Baoshan district, Shanghai, China
    Wu, M.; Ren, X.; Che, Y.; Yang, K.
  • Development priority zoning (DPZ)-led scenario simulation for regional land use change: the case of Suichang county China
    Wu, Y.; Peng, Y.; Zhang, X.; Skitmore, M.; Song, Y.
  • A novel integrated decision support tool for sustainable water resources management in Singapore: synergies between system dynamics and analytic hierarchy process
    Xi, X.; Poh, K.L.
  • A framework model for assessing sustainability impacts of urban development
    Xing, Y.; Horner, R.M.W.; El-Haram, M.A.; Bebbington, J.
  • Combining system dynamics model, GIS and 3D visualization in sustainability assessment of urban residential development
    Xu, Z.; Coors, V.
  • Comparison of ecological risk among different urban patterns based on system dynamics modeling of urban development
    Xu, J.; Kang, J.
  • System dynamic modelling of industrial growth and landscape ecology in China
    Xu, J.; Kang, J.; Shao, L.; Zhao, T.
  • A framework for sustainable urban water management through demand and supply forecasting: the case of Istanbul
    Yalçıntaş, M.; Bulu, M.; Küçükvar, M.; Samadi, H.
  • Integrated assessment and scenarios simulation of urban water security system in Southwest of China with system dynamics analysis
    Yin, S.; Dongjie, G.; Weici, S.; Weijun, G.
  • The dynamics of public safety in cities: a case study of Shanghai from 2010 to 2025
    Yu, D.; Fang, C.
  • Urban dynamics and multiple-objective programming: a case study of Beijing
    Yuan, X.H.; Ji, X.; Chen, H.; Chen, B.; Chen, G.Q.
  • System dynamics modeling for complex urban water systems: application to the city of Tabriz, Iran
    Zarghami, M.; Akbariyeh, S.
  • Dynamic simulation of urban water metabolism under water environmental carrying capacity restrictions
    Zeng, W.; Wu, B.; Chai, Y.
  • A coupled model for simulating spatio-temporal dynamics of land-use change: a case study in Changqing, Jinan, China
    Zheng, X.Q.; Zhao, L.; Xiang, W.N.; Li, N.; Lv, L.N.; Yang, X.
  • Space–time approach to water environment carrying capacity calculation
    Zhou, X.Y.; Lei, K.; Meng, W.; Khu, S.T.; Zhao, J.; Wang, M.; Yang, J.
  • Supply and demand of rice in Malaysia: a system dynamics approach
    Abdul Rahim, F.H.; Hawari, N.N.; Zainal Abidin, N.
  • All models are wrong: reflections on becoming a systems scientist
    Sterman, J.D.