Get 20M+ Full-Text Papers For Less Than $1.50/day. Start a 14-Day Trial for You or Your Team.

Learn More →

Strange attractor in the Auckland commercial property market

Strange attractor in the Auckland commercial property market The purpose of this study is to provide a chaos theory-based framework, which can be used to model commercial property market dynamics.Design/methodology/approachThe paper is presented in two parts. In the first, rigorous mathematical reasoning is entertained, so to derive an attractor describing a set of feedback formulae. In the second part, the attractor definition is used to model the Auckland commercial office market. The model is exposed through a set of seven scenarios allowing for analysis of the market behaviour under various exogenously imposed conditions.FindingsThe general behaviour of the model is in agreement with the commercial property market conduct observed in Auckland. The model provides information related to the market turning points and allows for an explanation of some intricate market dynamics. These include the anatomy of a market peak and its response to the liquidity oversupply.Practical implicationsThe model may be used to expand our understanding of the market performance under various exogenically imposed conditions, which allows for planning of market interventions in a more refined manner.Originality/valueThe paper is original, in the way the chaos theory is applied to the property markets modelling and allows for expanding the understanding of the market behaviour. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Journal of Property Investment & Finance Emerald Publishing

Strange attractor in the Auckland commercial property market

Szweizer, Moshe
Journal of Property Investment & Finance , Volume 38 (6): 18 – Oct 30, 2020
Download PDF
18 pages

Loading next page...
 
/lp/emerald-publishing/strange-attractor-in-the-auckland-commercial-property-market-kfkHwRC23B
Publisher
Emerald Publishing
Copyright
© Emerald Publishing Limited
ISSN
1463-578X
DOI
10.1108/jpif-10-2019-0138
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to provide a chaos theory-based framework, which can be used to model commercial property market dynamics.Design/methodology/approachThe paper is presented in two parts. In the first, rigorous mathematical reasoning is entertained, so to derive an attractor describing a set of feedback formulae. In the second part, the attractor definition is used to model the Auckland commercial office market. The model is exposed through a set of seven scenarios allowing for analysis of the market behaviour under various exogenously imposed conditions.FindingsThe general behaviour of the model is in agreement with the commercial property market conduct observed in Auckland. The model provides information related to the market turning points and allows for an explanation of some intricate market dynamics. These include the anatomy of a market peak and its response to the liquidity oversupply.Practical implicationsThe model may be used to expand our understanding of the market performance under various exogenically imposed conditions, which allows for planning of market interventions in a more refined manner.Originality/valueThe paper is original, in the way the chaos theory is applied to the property markets modelling and allows for expanding the understanding of the market behaviour.

Journal

Journal of Property Investment & Finance – Emerald Publishing

Published: Oct 30, 2020

Keywords: Entropy; Chaos; Auckland property market; Market turning points; Property market modelling; Strange attractor

References

  • The predictability of real office rents
    Chaplin, R.
  • The effect of monetary policy announcements and government interventions on the US insurance industry during the 2007-2009 crisis
    Grace, M.; Rauch, J.; Wende, S.
  • The working of the London office market
    Hendershott, P.H.; Lizieri, C.M.; Matysiak, G.A.
  • Estimating the rental adjustment process
    Hendershott, P.H.; MacGregor, B.D.; Tse, R.Y.C.
  • Property market modelling and forecasting: simple vs complex models
    Jadevicius, A.; Huston, S.
  • Examination of property forecasting models – accuracy and its improvement through combination forecasting
    Jadevicius, A.; Sloan, B.; Brown, A.
  • How does liquidity in the financial market affect the real estate market yields?
    Kim, K.; Kim, G.; Tsolacos, S.
  • Liquidity in global real estate securities markets
    Lux, N.; Moss, A.
  • Is direct investment in international property markets justifiable?
    McAllister, P.
  • Property cycles in the UK: an empirical investigation of the stylized facts
    McGough, T.; Tsolacos, S.
  • Exploring office investment decision-making in different European contexts
    Roberts, C.; Henneberry, J.
  • A comparison of alternative rental forecasting models: empirical tests on the London office market
    Stevenson, S.; Mcgarth, O.
  • Thermodynamics and London office property cycles
    Szweizer, M.
  • A new model for Auckland commercial property yields
    Szweizer, M.
  • Characteristic points of Auckland commercial property cycles
    Szweizer, M.
  • Risk assessment in commercial real estate development
    Thilini, M.; Wickramaarachchi, N.
  • The cyclic behaviour of the greater London office market
    Wheaton, W.C.; Torto, R.G.; Evans, P.