Property investment requires accurate market forecasts. The use of judgemental forecasting to predict property market performance is well established and widely practised. However, the need to deal with a large number of variables and to assess the impact of structural, exogenous and policy changes makes forecasting an inextricably difficult task, given the limitations of holistic forecasting. Proposes the incorporation of the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) to translate expert judgement into accurate and meaningful market forecasts. Such an approach facilitates communication of expert judgement and at the same time provides feedback for the expert. Provides a 12‐month forecast of the Singapore residential property market to illustrate the expert judgemental‐AHP approach.
Journal of Property Valuation and Investment – Emerald Publishing
Published: Mar 1, 1996
Keywords: Analytical hierarchy process; Forecasting; Pricing; Property markets