Singapore residential market An expert judgemental forecast incorporating the analytical hierarchy process

Singapore residential market An expert judgemental forecast incorporating the analytical... Property investment requires accurate market forecasts. The use of judgemental forecasting to predict property market performance is well established and widely practised. However, the need to deal with a large number of variables and to assess the impact of structural, exogenous and policy changes makes forecasting an inextricably difficult task, given the limitations of holistic forecasting. Proposes the incorporation of the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) to translate expert judgement into accurate and meaningful market forecasts. Such an approach facilitates communication of expert judgement and at the same time provides feedback for the expert. Provides a 12‐month forecast of the Singapore residential property market to illustrate the expert judgemental‐AHP approach. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Journal of Property Valuation and Investment Emerald Publishing

Singapore residential market An expert judgemental forecast incorporating the analytical hierarchy process

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Publisher
Emerald Publishing
Copyright
Copyright © 1996 MCB UP Ltd. All rights reserved.
ISSN
0960-2712
DOI
10.1108/14635789610107499
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Property investment requires accurate market forecasts. The use of judgemental forecasting to predict property market performance is well established and widely practised. However, the need to deal with a large number of variables and to assess the impact of structural, exogenous and policy changes makes forecasting an inextricably difficult task, given the limitations of holistic forecasting. Proposes the incorporation of the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) to translate expert judgement into accurate and meaningful market forecasts. Such an approach facilitates communication of expert judgement and at the same time provides feedback for the expert. Provides a 12‐month forecast of the Singapore residential property market to illustrate the expert judgemental‐AHP approach.

Journal

Journal of Property Valuation and InvestmentEmerald Publishing

Published: Mar 1, 1996

Keywords: Analytical hierarchy process; Forecasting; Pricing; Property markets

References

  • Housing, wages and UK labour market
    Bover, O.; Muellauer, J.; Murphy, A.
  • Modelling expert forecasting knowledge for incorporation into expert systems
    Hamm, R.M.
  • Mortgage credit availability, housing starts and the integration of the mortgage and capital markets: new evidence using linear feedback
    McGarvey, G.; Meador, M.
  • Seven Components of Forecasting Skills
    Stewart, T.R.

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