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Short term price forecasting in deregulated electricity markets A review of statistical models and key issues

Short term price forecasting in deregulated electricity markets A review of statistical models... Purpose – Several research papers related to electricity price forecasting have been reported in the leading journals in last 20 years. The purpose of this paper is to present a comprehensive survey and comparison of these techniques. Design/methodology/approach – The present article provides an overview of the statistical short‐term price forecasting (STPF) models. The basic theory of these models, their further classification and their suitability to STPF has been discussed. Quantitative evaluation of the performance of these models in the framework of accuracy achieved and computation time taken has been performed. Some important observations of the literature survey and key issues regarding STPF methodologies are analyzed. Findings – It has been observed that price forecasting accuracy of the reported models in day‐ahead markets is better as compared to that in real time markets. From a comparative analysis perspective, there is no hard evidence of out‐performance of one model over all other models on a consistent basis for a very long period. In some of the studies, linear models like dynamic regression and transfer function have shown superior performance as compared to non‐linear models like artificial neural networks (ANNs). On the other hand, recent variations in ANNs by employing wavelet transformation, fuzzy logic and genetic algorithm have shown considerable improvement in forecasting accuracy. However more complex models need further comparative analysis. Originality/value – This paper is intended to supplement the recent survey papers, in which the researchers have restricted the scope to a bibliographical survey. Whereas, in this work, after providing detailed classification and chronological evolution of the STPF techniques, a comparative summary of various price‐forecasting techniques, across different electricity markets, is presented. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png International Journal of Energy Sector Management Emerald Publishing

Short term price forecasting in deregulated electricity markets A review of statistical models and key issues

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Publisher
Emerald Publishing
Copyright
Copyright © 2009 Emerald Group Publishing Limited. All rights reserved.
ISSN
1750-6220
DOI
10.1108/17506220911005731
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Purpose – Several research papers related to electricity price forecasting have been reported in the leading journals in last 20 years. The purpose of this paper is to present a comprehensive survey and comparison of these techniques. Design/methodology/approach – The present article provides an overview of the statistical short‐term price forecasting (STPF) models. The basic theory of these models, their further classification and their suitability to STPF has been discussed. Quantitative evaluation of the performance of these models in the framework of accuracy achieved and computation time taken has been performed. Some important observations of the literature survey and key issues regarding STPF methodologies are analyzed. Findings – It has been observed that price forecasting accuracy of the reported models in day‐ahead markets is better as compared to that in real time markets. From a comparative analysis perspective, there is no hard evidence of out‐performance of one model over all other models on a consistent basis for a very long period. In some of the studies, linear models like dynamic regression and transfer function have shown superior performance as compared to non‐linear models like artificial neural networks (ANNs). On the other hand, recent variations in ANNs by employing wavelet transformation, fuzzy logic and genetic algorithm have shown considerable improvement in forecasting accuracy. However more complex models need further comparative analysis. Originality/value – This paper is intended to supplement the recent survey papers, in which the researchers have restricted the scope to a bibliographical survey. Whereas, in this work, after providing detailed classification and chronological evolution of the STPF techniques, a comparative summary of various price‐forecasting techniques, across different electricity markets, is presented.

Journal

International Journal of Energy Sector ManagementEmerald Publishing

Published: Nov 20, 2009

Keywords: Forecasting; Regression analysis; Electricity industry

References