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Re-examining asymmetric dynamics in the relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock market indices: empirical evidence from Malaysia

Re-examining asymmetric dynamics in the relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock... The aim of this research is to re-examine the dynamic linkages between macroeconomic variables and the stock market indices in Malaysia following some transformational changes in the policies and the exchange rate regime.Design/methodology/approachUsing monthly data points for all the economic variables and the stock market index (KLCI Index), the authors applied vector autoregression (VAR) model to examine the relationship. The authors also used impulse response function (IRF) in order to explore the effect of one-unit shock in “X” on “Y” under the VAR environment.FindingsThe authors' study finds a significant relationship between all the macroeconomic variables and the stock market index of Malaysia. The cointegration results indicate a long-term relationship, whereas the vector autoregressive-based impulse response analysis suggests that the Malaysian stock index (KLCI) responds negatively to the money supply, inflation and producer price index (PPI). However, the authors' results indicate a positive response from the stock index to the exchange rate.Research limitations/implicationsThe authors' study's results are based on selected macroeconomic variables and the VAR model. Researchers may find other variables and methods more useful and may provide findings accordingly.Practical implicationsSince the results are quite asymmetric, it would be interesting for the market players, policymakers and regulators to consider the findings and explore appropriate opportunities.Originality/valueWhile the relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock market indices has been widely examined, a significant gap in the literature remains concerning the role of exchange rate variable on the stock market in an emerging economy context. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png The Journal of Risk Finance Emerald Publishing

Re-examining asymmetric dynamics in the relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock market indices: empirical evidence from Malaysia

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References (59)

Publisher
Emerald Publishing
Copyright
© Emerald Publishing Limited
ISSN
1526-5943
DOI
10.1108/jrf-09-2023-0216
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

The aim of this research is to re-examine the dynamic linkages between macroeconomic variables and the stock market indices in Malaysia following some transformational changes in the policies and the exchange rate regime.Design/methodology/approachUsing monthly data points for all the economic variables and the stock market index (KLCI Index), the authors applied vector autoregression (VAR) model to examine the relationship. The authors also used impulse response function (IRF) in order to explore the effect of one-unit shock in “X” on “Y” under the VAR environment.FindingsThe authors' study finds a significant relationship between all the macroeconomic variables and the stock market index of Malaysia. The cointegration results indicate a long-term relationship, whereas the vector autoregressive-based impulse response analysis suggests that the Malaysian stock index (KLCI) responds negatively to the money supply, inflation and producer price index (PPI). However, the authors' results indicate a positive response from the stock index to the exchange rate.Research limitations/implicationsThe authors' study's results are based on selected macroeconomic variables and the VAR model. Researchers may find other variables and methods more useful and may provide findings accordingly.Practical implicationsSince the results are quite asymmetric, it would be interesting for the market players, policymakers and regulators to consider the findings and explore appropriate opportunities.Originality/valueWhile the relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock market indices has been widely examined, a significant gap in the literature remains concerning the role of exchange rate variable on the stock market in an emerging economy context.

Journal

The Journal of Risk FinanceEmerald Publishing

Published: Jan 10, 2024

Keywords: Macroeconomic variables; VAR; Cointegration; IRF; Dynamic relationship; Malaysia; Stock market; Inflation; Exchange rate; Producer price index; Money supply; C22; C58; G15; E44

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