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Pulling levers in New Haven, CT: an analysis of the TimeZup initiative and its impact on murder, robbery, and assault

Pulling levers in New Haven, CT: an analysis of the TimeZup initiative and its impact on murder,... This study examines the effect of TimeZup – a lever pulling strategy designed to reduce gun violence in New Haven, Connecticut.Design/methodology/approachA series of ARIMA and dynamically complete models are estimated to determine if TimeZup was associated with any significant changes in New Haven's murder, firearm robbery and firearm assault rates. A quasi-experimental design is also used to compare New Haven to six, similarly situated cities in the Northeastern United States.FindingsThe results indicate that New Haven experienced a significant decrease in its firearm robbery rate in the summer of 1997 – a date that preceded TimeZup but coincided with other lever pulling strategies implemented by the New Haven Police Department.Originality/valueAlthough an older program, TimeZup was not rigorously analyzed. After the conclusion of the program, basic pre- and post-comparisons suggested TimeZup was effective. Using a rigorous methodology, this study shows it was not. This study points out that interventions such as TimeZup often coincide with pre-existing crime reduction strategies. Evaluators should account for those pre-existing strategies because it may be those strategies – and not the intervention being examined – that are impacting crime rates. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Policing: An International Journal of Police Strategies and Management Emerald Publishing

Pulling levers in New Haven, CT: an analysis of the TimeZup initiative and its impact on murder, robbery, and assault

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References (24)

Publisher
Emerald Publishing
Copyright
© Emerald Publishing Limited
ISSN
1363-951X
DOI
10.1108/pijpsm-09-2020-0158
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

This study examines the effect of TimeZup – a lever pulling strategy designed to reduce gun violence in New Haven, Connecticut.Design/methodology/approachA series of ARIMA and dynamically complete models are estimated to determine if TimeZup was associated with any significant changes in New Haven's murder, firearm robbery and firearm assault rates. A quasi-experimental design is also used to compare New Haven to six, similarly situated cities in the Northeastern United States.FindingsThe results indicate that New Haven experienced a significant decrease in its firearm robbery rate in the summer of 1997 – a date that preceded TimeZup but coincided with other lever pulling strategies implemented by the New Haven Police Department.Originality/valueAlthough an older program, TimeZup was not rigorously analyzed. After the conclusion of the program, basic pre- and post-comparisons suggested TimeZup was effective. Using a rigorous methodology, this study shows it was not. This study points out that interventions such as TimeZup often coincide with pre-existing crime reduction strategies. Evaluators should account for those pre-existing strategies because it may be those strategies – and not the intervention being examined – that are impacting crime rates.

Journal

Policing: An International Journal of Police Strategies and Management – Emerald Publishing

Published: Oct 5, 2021

Keywords: Homicide; Violence; Deterrence; Pulling levers

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