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Precious metal prices: a tale of four US recessions

Precious metal prices: a tale of four US recessions The purpose of this paper is to examine the degree of persistence in four precious metal prices (i.e. gold, palladium, platinum and silver) during the last four US recessions.Design/methodology/approachUsing daily price data for gold, palladium, platinum and silver running from July 2, 1990, to March 21, 2022, and dating of business cycles in the USA provided by NBER (2022), the paper uses fractional integration to test the degree of persistence of precious metal prices.FindingsThe empirical analysis shows the unrelenting prominence of gold in relation to other precious metals (palladium, platinum and silver) as a hedge against market uncertainty in the post-pandemic new era.Originality/valueTwo are the main contributions of the paper. Firstly, the authors contribute to the commodity markets and finance literature on precious metal price modelling. Secondly, the authors also contribute to the literature on commodity markets and business cycles with a special focus on recessionary periods. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Studies in Economics and Finance Emerald Publishing

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References (36)

Publisher
Emerald Publishing
Copyright
© Emerald Publishing Limited
ISSN
1086-7376
eISSN
1755-6791
DOI
10.1108/sef-09-2023-0550
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to examine the degree of persistence in four precious metal prices (i.e. gold, palladium, platinum and silver) during the last four US recessions.Design/methodology/approachUsing daily price data for gold, palladium, platinum and silver running from July 2, 1990, to March 21, 2022, and dating of business cycles in the USA provided by NBER (2022), the paper uses fractional integration to test the degree of persistence of precious metal prices.FindingsThe empirical analysis shows the unrelenting prominence of gold in relation to other precious metals (palladium, platinum and silver) as a hedge against market uncertainty in the post-pandemic new era.Originality/valueTwo are the main contributions of the paper. Firstly, the authors contribute to the commodity markets and finance literature on precious metal price modelling. Secondly, the authors also contribute to the literature on commodity markets and business cycles with a special focus on recessionary periods.

Journal

Studies in Economics and FinanceEmerald Publishing

Published: Nov 14, 2024

Keywords: Precious metal prices; US economic recessions; Persistence; COVID-19; F10; G10; G11; G15

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