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Population forecast of Anhui province based on the GM(1,1) model

Population forecast of Anhui province based on the GM(1,1) model PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to predict the population of Anhui province. The authors analyze the trend of the main demographic indicators.Design/methodology/approachOn the basis of the main methods of statistics, this paper studies the tendency of the population of Anhui province. It mainly analyzes the sex structure and the age structure of the current population. Based on the GM(1,1) model, this paper forecasts the total population, the population sex structure, and the population age structure of Anhui province in the next ten years.FindingsThe results show that the total population was controlled well, but there have been many problems of the population structure, such as the aging population, high sex ratio, heavy social dependency burden, and the declining labor force.Social implicationsThis paper forecasts the main indexes of the population of Anhui province and provides policy recommendations for the government and the relevant departments.Originality/valueThis paper utilizes data analysis method and the grey forecasting model to study the tendency of the population problems in Anhui province. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Grey Systems Theory and Application Emerald Publishing

Population forecast of Anhui province based on the GM(1,1) model

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References (23)

Publisher
Emerald Publishing
Copyright
Copyright © Emerald Group Publishing Limited
ISSN
2043-9377
DOI
10.1108/GS-11-2016-0044
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to predict the population of Anhui province. The authors analyze the trend of the main demographic indicators.Design/methodology/approachOn the basis of the main methods of statistics, this paper studies the tendency of the population of Anhui province. It mainly analyzes the sex structure and the age structure of the current population. Based on the GM(1,1) model, this paper forecasts the total population, the population sex structure, and the population age structure of Anhui province in the next ten years.FindingsThe results show that the total population was controlled well, but there have been many problems of the population structure, such as the aging population, high sex ratio, heavy social dependency burden, and the declining labor force.Social implicationsThis paper forecasts the main indexes of the population of Anhui province and provides policy recommendations for the government and the relevant departments.Originality/valueThis paper utilizes data analysis method and the grey forecasting model to study the tendency of the population problems in Anhui province.

Journal

Grey Systems Theory and ApplicationEmerald Publishing

Published: Feb 6, 2017

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