Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to calculate the probability of collision of flying aircraft crossing on straight paths in any direction. Design/methodology/approach – The probability of deviations from the intended flight paths is used to calculate the probability of collision that is integrated over time to cover whole events. Findings – The probabilities of collision are calculated in terms of the r.m.s. position errors and encounter geometry, that is aircraft velocities and flight path angles and crossing angles. Research limitations/implications – The method does not apply to aircraft flying in parallel tracks at the same velocity in air corridors: that case has been covered elsewhere, as well as the case of climbing or descending aircraft. Practical implications – International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) specifies as target level of safety (TLS) a probability of collision not exceeding 5×10 −9 per hour. To meet the ICAO TLS standard, it is necessary to calculate collision probabilities for all stages of flight. Social implications – A low collision probability is a safety metric; the value does depend on a realist choice of probability distribution. Originality/value – Calculates the probability of collision for crossing flights, corresponding to a common scenario on air traffic management.
Aircraft Engineering and Aerospace Technology – Emerald Publishing
Published: Sep 6, 2011
Keywords: Air traffic control; Aircraft; Collision probabilities; Target level of safety; ICAO; Aircraft; Air safety
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