On the probability of collision for crossing aircraft

On the probability of collision for crossing aircraft Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to calculate the probability of collision of flying aircraft crossing on straight paths in any direction. Design/methodology/approach – The probability of deviations from the intended flight paths is used to calculate the probability of collision that is integrated over time to cover whole events. Findings – The probabilities of collision are calculated in terms of the r.m.s. position errors and encounter geometry, that is aircraft velocities and flight path angles and crossing angles. Research limitations/implications – The method does not apply to aircraft flying in parallel tracks at the same velocity in air corridors: that case has been covered elsewhere, as well as the case of climbing or descending aircraft. Practical implications – International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) specifies as target level of safety (TLS) a probability of collision not exceeding 5×10 −9 per hour. To meet the ICAO TLS standard, it is necessary to calculate collision probabilities for all stages of flight. Social implications – A low collision probability is a safety metric; the value does depend on a realist choice of probability distribution. Originality/value – Calculates the probability of collision for crossing flights, corresponding to a common scenario on air traffic management. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Aircraft Engineering and Aerospace Technology Emerald Publishing

On the probability of collision for crossing aircraft

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Publisher
Emerald Publishing
Copyright
Copyright © 2011 Emerald Group Publishing Limited. All rights reserved.
ISSN
0002-2667
DOI
10.1108/00022661111159915
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to calculate the probability of collision of flying aircraft crossing on straight paths in any direction. Design/methodology/approach – The probability of deviations from the intended flight paths is used to calculate the probability of collision that is integrated over time to cover whole events. Findings – The probabilities of collision are calculated in terms of the r.m.s. position errors and encounter geometry, that is aircraft velocities and flight path angles and crossing angles. Research limitations/implications – The method does not apply to aircraft flying in parallel tracks at the same velocity in air corridors: that case has been covered elsewhere, as well as the case of climbing or descending aircraft. Practical implications – International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) specifies as target level of safety (TLS) a probability of collision not exceeding 5×10 −9 per hour. To meet the ICAO TLS standard, it is necessary to calculate collision probabilities for all stages of flight. Social implications – A low collision probability is a safety metric; the value does depend on a realist choice of probability distribution. Originality/value – Calculates the probability of collision for crossing flights, corresponding to a common scenario on air traffic management.

Journal

Aircraft Engineering and Aerospace TechnologyEmerald Publishing

Published: Sep 6, 2011

Keywords: Air traffic control; Aircraft; Collision probabilities; Target level of safety; ICAO; Aircraft; Air safety

References

  • Model predictive control approach to global air collision avoidance
    Bousson, K.
  • Dynamics of Flight: Stability and Control
    Etkin, B.; Reid, L.D.
  • Theory of Probability and Statistics
    Mises, R.V.

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