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Modelling the currency in circulation for the State of Qatar

Modelling the currency in circulation for the State of Qatar Purpose – This paper seeks to model the daily and weekly forecasting of the currency in circulation (CIC) for the State of Qatar. Design/methodology/approach – The paper employs linear forecasting models, the regression model and the seasonal ARIMA model to forecast the CIC for Qatar. Findings – Comparing the linear methods, the seasonal ARIMA model provides better estimates for short‐term forecasts. The range of forecast errors for the seasonal ARIMA model forecasts are less than 100 million QR for the short‐term CIC forecasts. Practical implications – The findings of this paper suggest that the CIC in Qatar is in a pattern and it would be easier to forecast the currency in circulation in Qatar economy. Accurate estimates of money market liquidity would help Qatar Central bank, to maintain the price stability in the Qatar economy. Originality/value – This paper forecasts the currency in circulation for the State of Qatar. Additionally, the empirical part of the paper compares the different methodologies find the appropriate model for the CIC for the state of Qatar. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management Emerald Publishing

Modelling the currency in circulation for the State of Qatar

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Publisher
Emerald Publishing
Copyright
Copyright © 2012 Emerald Group Publishing Limited. All rights reserved.
ISSN
1753-8394
DOI
10.1108/17538391211282827
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Purpose – This paper seeks to model the daily and weekly forecasting of the currency in circulation (CIC) for the State of Qatar. Design/methodology/approach – The paper employs linear forecasting models, the regression model and the seasonal ARIMA model to forecast the CIC for Qatar. Findings – Comparing the linear methods, the seasonal ARIMA model provides better estimates for short‐term forecasts. The range of forecast errors for the seasonal ARIMA model forecasts are less than 100 million QR for the short‐term CIC forecasts. Practical implications – The findings of this paper suggest that the CIC in Qatar is in a pattern and it would be easier to forecast the currency in circulation in Qatar economy. Accurate estimates of money market liquidity would help Qatar Central bank, to maintain the price stability in the Qatar economy. Originality/value – This paper forecasts the currency in circulation for the State of Qatar. Additionally, the empirical part of the paper compares the different methodologies find the appropriate model for the CIC for the state of Qatar.

Journal

International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and ManagementEmerald Publishing

Published: Nov 23, 2012

Keywords: Currency in circulation; Linear forecasting; Seasonal ARIMA; Forecasting; Currency accounting; Autoregressive processes; Qatar

References