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Mapping statistics to success on the PGA Tour Insights from the use of a single metric

Mapping statistics to success on the PGA Tour Insights from the use of a single metric Purpose – Although the PGA Tour provides a wide array of statistics, no single measure has successfully been able to predict a player's success during the season, either in terms of earnings per tournament or weighted average scores. The purpose of this paper is to present a metric that attempts to predict annual player rankings based on these two criteria. Design/methodology/approach – The metric is computed from available statistics and attempts to encapsulate a player's unique strengths and weaknesses in a single number. Findings – Deviations in rankings based on the metric are compared to those based on earnings per event and adjusted scoring averages. The results suggest that in addition to the average annual performance on the greens, the mix of tournaments played and the incidence of heroics or consistency have an important impact on the chances of success on the Tour. Research limitations/implications – The metric's predictions can be negatively affected if a golfer makes a large proportion of double eagles or double bogies. Practical implications – The KCS (Key Criterion of Success) metric provides a quick route to succinctly summarizing a golfer's unique strengths and weaknesses in a single number. Originality/value – Previous literature has mentioned the gap between statistics and success in golf. For the first time, possible reasons behind this divergence are identified in this paper. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Sport, Business and Management: An International Journal Emerald Publishing

Mapping statistics to success on the PGA Tour Insights from the use of a single metric

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Publisher
Emerald Publishing
Copyright
Copyright © 2012 Emerald Group Publishing Limited. All rights reserved.
ISSN
2042-678X
DOI
10.1108/20426781211207656
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Purpose – Although the PGA Tour provides a wide array of statistics, no single measure has successfully been able to predict a player's success during the season, either in terms of earnings per tournament or weighted average scores. The purpose of this paper is to present a metric that attempts to predict annual player rankings based on these two criteria. Design/methodology/approach – The metric is computed from available statistics and attempts to encapsulate a player's unique strengths and weaknesses in a single number. Findings – Deviations in rankings based on the metric are compared to those based on earnings per event and adjusted scoring averages. The results suggest that in addition to the average annual performance on the greens, the mix of tournaments played and the incidence of heroics or consistency have an important impact on the chances of success on the Tour. Research limitations/implications – The metric's predictions can be negatively affected if a golfer makes a large proportion of double eagles or double bogies. Practical implications – The KCS (Key Criterion of Success) metric provides a quick route to succinctly summarizing a golfer's unique strengths and weaknesses in a single number. Originality/value – Previous literature has mentioned the gap between statistics and success in golf. For the first time, possible reasons behind this divergence are identified in this paper.

Journal

Sport, Business and Management: An International JournalEmerald Publishing

Published: Mar 16, 2012

Keywords: Golf; Performance measures; Statistics; Earnings determination; Professional golf; Computed metric; Sports economics

References