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Innovation diffusion modeling considering the time lag between awareness and eventual adoption

Innovation diffusion modeling considering the time lag between awareness and eventual adoption PurposeToday, a firm’s major concern is to know the way in which an innovation is adopted in the marketplace. The purpose of this paper is to focus on the two-stage nature of diffusion process in which the time lag between people being informed and their act of making final purchase is considered.Design/methodology/approachThe paper discusses an approach based on the time lag for modeling awareness and adoption process as two separate and yet connected processes. Varying forms of time lag (constant, deterministic or random) have been considered while modeling the required framework. Furthermore, an equivalence approach has been shown between the present framework and the two well-known and established approaches of infinite queuing theory and hazard rate function.FindingsThe results are verified on sales data of two different consumer durables and it show good prediction capability of proposed models in capturing the real-life scenario. Further, the equivalence approach helps us to quantify such scenarios which were difficult to be modeled with any one particular approach. Further, the possibility of capturing different market scenarios by studying various distribution functions has been identified.Research limitations/implicationsThe proposed methodology is based on a two-stage adoption process. The same can be extended to a multi-stage adoption process as in today’s competitive environment. “Motivation” is one such factor that is highly important which can be considered in some later studies. In future, the authors wish to study the multi-stage adoption process considering the different forms of time lag function.Practical implicationsThe equivalence approach discussed in the paper can help to cater the possibility of capturing different market scenarios by studying various distribution functions.Originality/valueThe proposed approach helps to cater the time lag between awareness and adoption process and develop different mean value functions to account for the manner in which sales are happening under different circumstances. The proposed methodical approach can also help decision makers in managing their available resources in a prudent manner. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Journal of Advances in Management Research Emerald Publishing

Innovation diffusion modeling considering the time lag between awareness and eventual adoption

Innovation diffusion modeling considering the time lag between awareness and eventual adoption

Purpose – Today, a firm’s major concern is to know the way in which an innovation is adopted in the marketplace. The purpose of this paper is to focus on the two-stage nature of diffusion process in which thetimelag betweenpeoplebeing informed andtheir act of making final purchase is considered. Design/methodology/approach – The paper discusses an approach based on the time lag for modeling awareness and adoption process as two separate and yet connected processes. Varying forms of time lag (constant, deterministic or random) have been considered while modeling the required framework. Furthermore, an equivalence approach has been shown between the present framework and the two well- known and established approaches of infinite queuing theory and hazard rate function. Findings – The results are verified on sales data of two different consumer durables and it show good prediction capability of proposed models in capturing the real-life scenario. Further, the equivalence approach helps us to quantify such scenarios which were difficult to be modeled with any one particular approach. Further, the possibility of capturing different market scenarios by studying various distribution functions has been identified. Research limitations/implications – The proposed methodology is based on a two-stage adoption process. The same can be extended to a multi-stage adoption process as in today’scompetitive environment. “Motivation” is one such factor that is highly important which can be considered in some later studies. In future, the authors wish to study the multi-stage adoption process considering the different forms of time lag function. Practical implications – The equivalence approach discussed in the paper can help to cater the possibility of capturing different market scenarios by studying various distribution functions. Originality/value – The proposed approach helps to cater the time lag between awareness and...
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Publisher
Emerald Publishing
Copyright
Copyright © Emerald Group Publishing Limited
ISSN
0972-7981
DOI
10.1108/JAMR-11-2016-0093
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

PurposeToday, a firm’s major concern is to know the way in which an innovation is adopted in the marketplace. The purpose of this paper is to focus on the two-stage nature of diffusion process in which the time lag between people being informed and their act of making final purchase is considered.Design/methodology/approachThe paper discusses an approach based on the time lag for modeling awareness and adoption process as two separate and yet connected processes. Varying forms of time lag (constant, deterministic or random) have been considered while modeling the required framework. Furthermore, an equivalence approach has been shown between the present framework and the two well-known and established approaches of infinite queuing theory and hazard rate function.FindingsThe results are verified on sales data of two different consumer durables and it show good prediction capability of proposed models in capturing the real-life scenario. Further, the equivalence approach helps us to quantify such scenarios which were difficult to be modeled with any one particular approach. Further, the possibility of capturing different market scenarios by studying various distribution functions has been identified.Research limitations/implicationsThe proposed methodology is based on a two-stage adoption process. The same can be extended to a multi-stage adoption process as in today’s competitive environment. “Motivation” is one such factor that is highly important which can be considered in some later studies. In future, the authors wish to study the multi-stage adoption process considering the different forms of time lag function.Practical implicationsThe equivalence approach discussed in the paper can help to cater the possibility of capturing different market scenarios by studying various distribution functions.Originality/valueThe proposed approach helps to cater the time lag between awareness and adoption process and develop different mean value functions to account for the manner in which sales are happening under different circumstances. The proposed methodical approach can also help decision makers in managing their available resources in a prudent manner.

Journal

Journal of Advances in Management ResearchEmerald Publishing

Published: Feb 5, 2018

References