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Imitation analysis Early prediction of the market demand for major innovations

Imitation analysis Early prediction of the market demand for major innovations Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to describe a method of estimating the likelihood that a person with particular characteristics will imitate a particular new behaviour (i.e. the use of an innovation). This estimation can be used to provide a new form of forecast for the likely market demand for an innovation. Design/methodology/approach – This method, termed imitation analysis, is based on imitation theories from the behavioural sciences and is applied in two recent case studies in The Netherlands: broadcast TV on mobile phones and a mobile friend‐network service. Findings – These cases illustrate how: the market segments with the highest potential can be identified; marketing communication can be focused on specific issues important for each segment (e.g. based on the highest imitation potential); product design can be improved (by highlighting the characteristics with the most room for improving the imitation potential); and market demand can be modelled (the overall chance of imitation occurring). Practical implications – Management implications for the two services, as well as the usefulness of imitation analysis in forecasting studies, are discussed. Originality/value – The paper expands on original work published in this journal in 2005, showing the value of the approach in real‐world settings. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png European Journal of Innovation Management Emerald Publishing

Imitation analysis Early prediction of the market demand for major innovations

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References (50)

Publisher
Emerald Publishing
Copyright
Copyright © 2009 Emerald Group Publishing Limited. All rights reserved.
ISSN
1460-1060
DOI
10.1108/14601060910928157
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to describe a method of estimating the likelihood that a person with particular characteristics will imitate a particular new behaviour (i.e. the use of an innovation). This estimation can be used to provide a new form of forecast for the likely market demand for an innovation. Design/methodology/approach – This method, termed imitation analysis, is based on imitation theories from the behavioural sciences and is applied in two recent case studies in The Netherlands: broadcast TV on mobile phones and a mobile friend‐network service. Findings – These cases illustrate how: the market segments with the highest potential can be identified; marketing communication can be focused on specific issues important for each segment (e.g. based on the highest imitation potential); product design can be improved (by highlighting the characteristics with the most room for improving the imitation potential); and market demand can be modelled (the overall chance of imitation occurring). Practical implications – Management implications for the two services, as well as the usefulness of imitation analysis in forecasting studies, are discussed. Originality/value – The paper expands on original work published in this journal in 2005, showing the value of the approach in real‐world settings.

Journal

European Journal of Innovation ManagementEmerald Publishing

Published: Jan 23, 2009

Keywords: Consumer behaviour; Forecasting; Product development; Telecommunications; Supply; demand and exchange

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