Seasonal fluctuation interference often affects the relational analysis of economic time series. The main purpose of this paper is to propose a new grey relational model for relational analysis of seasonal time series and apply it to identify and eliminate the influence of seasonal fluctuation of retail sales of consumer goods in China.Design/methodology/approachFirst, the whole quarterly time series is divided into four groups by data grouping method. Each group only contains the time series data in the same quarter. Then, the new series of four-quarters are used to establish the grey correlation model and calculate its correlation coefficient. Finally, the correlation degree of factors in each group of data was calculated and sorted to determine its importance.FindingsThe data grouping method can effectively reflect the correlation between time series in different quarters and eliminate the influence of seasonal fluctuation.Practical implicationsIn this paper, the main factors influencing the quarterly fluctuations of retail sales of consumer goods in China are explored by using the grouped grey correlation model. The results show that the main factors are different from quarter to quarter: in the first quarter, the main factors are money supply, tax and per capita disposable income of rural residents. In the second quarter are money supply, fiscal expenditure and tax. In the third quarter are money supply, fiscal expenditure and per capita disposable income of rural residents. In the fourth quarter are money supply, fiscal expenditure and tax.Originality/valueThis paper successfully realizes the application of grey relational model in quarterly time series and extends the applicable scope of grey relational model.
Grey Systems: Theory and Application – Emerald Publishing
Published: May 19, 2020
Keywords: Total retail sales of consumer goods; GRA model; Seasonal fluctuation; Data grouping method