Get 20M+ Full-Text Papers For Less Than $1.50/day. Start a 14-Day Trial for You or Your Team.

Learn More →

Grey power models based on optimization of initial condition and model parameters

Grey power models based on optimization of initial condition and model parameters Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to propose a novel approach to improve prediction accuracy of grey power models including GM (1, 1) and grey Verhulst model. Design/methodology/approach – The modified new models are proposed by optimizing the initial condition and model parameters. The new initial condition consists of the first item and the last item of a sequence generated by applying the first‐order accumulative generation operator on the sequence of raw data. Findings – It is shown that the newly modified grey power model is an extension of the previous optimized GM (1, 1) and grey Verhulst model. And the optimized initial condition reflected the principle of new information priority. Practical implications – The result of a numerical example indicates that the modified grey model presented in this paper with better prediction performance. Originality/value – The new initial condition are derived by weighted combination of the first item and the last item. The coefficients of weight obtained by the least square method. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Grey Systems: Theory and Application Emerald Publishing

Grey power models based on optimization of initial condition and model parameters

Grey Systems: Theory and Application , Volume 4 (2): 13 – Jul 29, 2014

Loading next page...
 
/lp/emerald-publishing/grey-power-models-based-on-optimization-of-initial-condition-and-model-a3KOrZerTL
Publisher
Emerald Publishing
Copyright
Copyright © 2014 Emerald Group Publishing Limited. All rights reserved.
ISSN
2043-9377
DOI
10.1108/GS-06-2014-0020
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to propose a novel approach to improve prediction accuracy of grey power models including GM (1, 1) and grey Verhulst model. Design/methodology/approach – The modified new models are proposed by optimizing the initial condition and model parameters. The new initial condition consists of the first item and the last item of a sequence generated by applying the first‐order accumulative generation operator on the sequence of raw data. Findings – It is shown that the newly modified grey power model is an extension of the previous optimized GM (1, 1) and grey Verhulst model. And the optimized initial condition reflected the principle of new information priority. Practical implications – The result of a numerical example indicates that the modified grey model presented in this paper with better prediction performance. Originality/value – The new initial condition are derived by weighted combination of the first item and the last item. The coefficients of weight obtained by the least square method.

Journal

Grey Systems: Theory and ApplicationEmerald Publishing

Published: Jul 29, 2014

Keywords: Grey systems modelling and prediction; Practical applications of grey models

References