GM(1, 1) forecast under function cot x transformation

GM(1, 1) forecast under function cot x transformation Purpose – This paper aims to find an effective and standardized function transformation method to apply in both high‐growth original data sequences and low‐growth original data sequences, which can improve the accuracy of model prediction in GM(1, 1) forecast. Design/methodology/approach – In GM(1, 1) forecast, many original data sequences need to meet the quasi‐exponential characteristic by methods of function transformation. However, many methods of function transformation have complex transformation processes or narrow application range. On the basis of the research results of Ye and Li, the paper presents a standardized approach based on to original data sequences and designs four situations of the standardized approach. By using high‐growth and low‐growth original data sequences as the objects, respectively, the paper verifies the effectiveness of the proposed method and compares the forecasting effects of GM(1, 1) based on function transformation with the original GM(1, 1). Findings – Most of the results show that function transformations can improve the accuracy of the conventional GM(1, 1) forecast, and transform is a powerful tool to effectively process original data sequence of GM(1, 1) modeling. Practical implications – GM(1, 1) forecast have been widely used in many fields such as agriculture, economy, meteorology, and geology. The proposed method in this paper can effectively apply to prediction of high‐growth original data sequences and low‐growth original data sequences, to some extent, enrich and deepen application of GM(1, 1) forecast. Originality/value – The paper succeeds in providing a standardized approach based on and designs four intensity levels for different data sequences based on the standardized approach. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Grey Systems: Theory and Application Emerald Publishing

GM(1, 1) forecast under function cot x transformation

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, Volume 3 (3): 14 – Oct 25, 2013

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Publisher
Emerald Publishing
Copyright
Copyright © 2013 Emerald Group Publishing Limited. All rights reserved.
ISSN
2043-9377
DOI
10.1108/GS-08-2013-0019
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Purpose – This paper aims to find an effective and standardized function transformation method to apply in both high‐growth original data sequences and low‐growth original data sequences, which can improve the accuracy of model prediction in GM(1, 1) forecast. Design/methodology/approach – In GM(1, 1) forecast, many original data sequences need to meet the quasi‐exponential characteristic by methods of function transformation. However, many methods of function transformation have complex transformation processes or narrow application range. On the basis of the research results of Ye and Li, the paper presents a standardized approach based on to original data sequences and designs four situations of the standardized approach. By using high‐growth and low‐growth original data sequences as the objects, respectively, the paper verifies the effectiveness of the proposed method and compares the forecasting effects of GM(1, 1) based on function transformation with the original GM(1, 1). Findings – Most of the results show that function transformations can improve the accuracy of the conventional GM(1, 1) forecast, and transform is a powerful tool to effectively process original data sequence of GM(1, 1) modeling. Practical implications – GM(1, 1) forecast have been widely used in many fields such as agriculture, economy, meteorology, and geology. The proposed method in this paper can effectively apply to prediction of high‐growth original data sequences and low‐growth original data sequences, to some extent, enrich and deepen application of GM(1, 1) forecast. Originality/value – The paper succeeds in providing a standardized approach based on and designs four intensity levels for different data sequences based on the standardized approach.

Journal

Grey Systems: Theory and ApplicationEmerald Publishing

Published: Oct 25, 2013

Keywords: Grey systems modeling and prediction; Grey equation and Grey matrix

References

  • An improvement of grey forecasting model
    Chen, J.; Xu, C.X.
  • Grey System Theory and Its Application
    Liu, S.F.; Xie, N.M.
  • New type of data transformation and its application in GM (1, 1) model
    Qian, W.Y.; Dang, Y.G.

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