Risk and uncertainty are, to say the least, poorly considered by most individuals involved in real estate analysis – in both development and investment appraisal. Surveyors continue to express “uncertainty” about the value (risk) of using relatively objective methods of analysis to account for these factors. These methods attempt to identify the risk elements more explicitly. Conventionally this is done by deriving probability distributions for the uncontrolled variables in the system. Presents a suggested “new” way of expressing our uncertainty or slight vagueness about some of the qualitative judgements and not entirely certain uses of fuzzy logic applied to real estate problems. Discusses and demonstrates the terminology and methodology of fuzzy analysis. In particular, attempts a comparison of fuzzy procedures with those used in “conventional” risk analysis approaches and critically investigates whether a fuzzy approach offers an alternative to the use of probability based analysis for dealing with aspects of risk and uncertainty in real estate analysis.
Journal of Property Valuation and Investment – Emerald Publishing
Published: Aug 1, 1995
Keywords: Fuzzy logics; Fuzzy sets; Monte Carlo simulation; Probability; Risk; Uncertainty